JotCast | Trade Value Series Chat - 7/29/22

Trade Value Series Chat - 7/29/22

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

12:12

When I made this list initially, I came up with a formula to give me an initial order that I could then riff off of

12:13

It's something like 50% some vaguely defined value metric, 25% next year's projected WAR, 25% total controllable projected WAR

The reasons for all the parts should be fairly obvious, and the weights are arbitrary, I just needed SOMETHING as a 'model' that I could move around

12:14

Albies was like 25th??

And I thought wow, that's weird, everyone loves Ozzie Albies's contract for the team (and hates it for him, etc.), I should move him up

12:15

But then I started getting feedback like 'hey uh, why is Albies so high?' and that gave me the courage of my convictions to move him back near where my lazy model had him

All of that is to say, if he were playing better and not hurt, he'd be ranked higher

But his recent performance has lowered reasonable future expectations

Sorry, everyone, fire alarm in my building, I'll be right back

Karen

12:16

You left _______ and _________ off the list! This guy was too high and what is with this guys' low ranking!?! Please explain

Ben Clemens

12:16

I'm gonna have to direct you to my manager, Meg Rowley

12:17

(hopefully this is just a false alarm)

RJD

12:17

If Judge signed the yankees extension offer, would he have made the list/hm?

Ben Clemens

12:17

HM

Nate

12:17

Do you personally think Ke'Bryan Hayes ever fixes his swing to get more loft/finally tap into that raw power more? Or think this is mostly what he'll be moving forward? Seems like he'd be a top 10 guy if he could ever be a 20 bomb threat someday

Ben Clemens

12:17

Personally, I think it's like 40%

I'm a big Hayes guy

Reasonable people could have that number lower, but I don't think they could have it higher

TooDamnTall

12:17

Curious about how much you feel the list is your opinion vs reporting what the industry thinks. Or, to say that differently, are there any players you personally think are in the wrong spot?

Ben Clemens

12:17

Wonderful question

12:18

This is like 70% opinion 30% capturing the industry, if not higher on my opinion

I do think that the two are fairly close?

But like, I can't actually get a square answer from a GM about whether they think Byron Buxton or Alek Manoah has higher trade value

I don't even know any GM's!

12:19

And also, they probably don't have an answer ready at hand, why would they

Fatty Magoo

12:19

Only one pitcher in the top 10? Is that because of injury risk or are position players just that more valuable?

Ben Clemens

12:19

Position players are more valuable because of lower injury risk, so both

Fatty Magoo

12:19

Interesting to see Hayes ahead of Riley considering they are the same age and Riley looks like a star while Hayes might not be league average with the bat. Is that simply due to more service time?

Ben Clemens

12:19

Yes

Deep Freaking Value

12:19

How much did the thought of, "How devastating would this be for the franchise if they had to trade this guy" factor into your rankings? I think this most applies to Trout and Ohtani because they don't fit the mold of lots of surplus value due to control or cheap contract, but the Angels would just have to feel like an abject failure for wasting the primes of the 2 best players of the last 10 years.

Ben Clemens

12:20

Zero! Maybe it should have more

Insert Witty Name Here

12:20

I’m going to respectfully disagree with Tatis’s spot anywhere on this list. I believe his injuries already show he is not going to age well considering the length of his contract. I don’t know how you really quantity risk like that, but if I said there’s a 70% chance he doesn’t live up to his contract, what would your counter reply be?

Ben Clemens

12:20

My counter reply would be that I disagree?

Like, clearly

Models do too!

Not that you should 'trust the model' but like, these are inherently subjective and we're wondering about what will happen far in the future

Phil

12:20

I'm interested to see so many guys who have signed contracts quite high on the list, rather than the usual crop of pre-arbitration sorts. As a generally pro-union guy, is it reasonable for me to conclude that these players are being a bit ripped off? In other words, does the tremendous team value of somebody like Franco mean that signing a contract like that is just never a good financial bet for someone that young and talented? (Obviously I recognize that some players genuinely value organizational ties over money, and good major league players are all rich regardless, etc.)

Ben Clemens

12:21

No, I think that there's a pretty clear line here that I was hoping for a spot to explain int he series and never quite got. Time for a mini article

If you think about the mechanics of signing an early extension, the team has this arb structure that they could pay you under

12:22

But they won't HAVE to, and anything could happen

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat