JotCast | Trade Value Series Chat

Trade Value Series Chat - 7/29/22

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Ben Clemens

12:22

So if the team comes to you and says, hey, you and your representatives agree that on average, you'll make X over the next five years, we'd like to pay you X, and in exchange, you can give us a discount on some free agency years, 80% of a huge salary instead of 100% of a huge salary

12:23

You take that deal. Money has diminishing marginal returns. Locking in that certainty is awesome. I wrote about this when JP Crawford signed his extension (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/j-p-crawford-and-the-mariners-are-a-perfec...)

It's like selling insurance

12:24

The player takes out boom/bust insurance, essentially, and the team is in a position to offer that b/c they have a portfolio effect, they can make a bunch of investments in players over time, the player has only one career

So if a player was a good value under the arb structure (in expectation), and they lock in that structure by taking some discounted free agency years or team options.... they're a better expected value

12:25

And that's despite them getting something they wanted, salary certainty. It's a win/win assuming the extension isn't completely off-market

Kyle Blanks

12:25

in re the exploitative contracts point, hard not to notice that the top 10 are all Latino players, many of them signed young and internationally

Ben Clemens

12:25

Something I considered in this for sure, but I don't think there are any ridiculous extensions in the bunch

Sandy's, maybe, but there's mitigating circumstances there

12:26

He's a pitcher and signed it before making a HUGE leap

The Albies extension is over the line for me to exploitative, I don't think any in the current top 10 are, though obviously that's just one person's opinion

Phil

12:26

What is the highest possible rank for somebody signed through 2023? If somebody with Ted Williams's hitting and Ozzie Smith's defense had one year left. . . ?

Ben Clemens

12:26

I'd put them first, haha

Vs BTV

12:26

I compared your rank to the top ranked players at BaseballTradeValues. The player you disagree most is Yordan Alavrez, (them 33rd, you 5th). Who is wrong, them or you?

Ben Clemens

12:26

Them

People WILDLY underrate Yordan

Guest

12:27

Was surprised to not see Nico Hoerner with the year he's having and contract length - any consideration?

Ben Clemens

12:27

Eh, nah, wanna see more, too much of his value is from defense that suddenly got way better this year, I'm a tad skeptical of the models there

Guest

12:27

Which is more likely at this point - Nico Hoerner entering the list or a Nick Madrigal reentry?

Ben Clemens

12:28

Hoerner entering

Malcolm Nunez

12:28

Was surprised to see that Skubal didn't make the list. Any particular reasons why?

Ben Clemens

12:28

He sholud have been an HM, he literally was on the list and when I grouped them into things to write about I didn't notice that he didn't fit any group

12:29

I dunno, he could have been in the last group of 10, maybe he should have been, I'm not losing sleep over it

Bubba

12:29

The only top tier team with a dude in the top 20 is the Astros, and they have 3 of them. Just thought that was interesting.

Ben Clemens

12:29

It was very interesting to me. It's kind of amazing that they have somehow flipped over the core

Deep Freaking Value

12:29

Did Tommy Edman showing he is still GG worthy even at SS make you consider him for HM or back end of the list?

Ben Clemens

12:29

He was an HM

12:30

But for the record I do not think that he's gold glove worthy at short

Much as the models seem to love him there

12:31

Very good, but I think his arm makes him more second than short if he has an optimal position

Ed H

12:31

Given how much teams value relievers, was any consideration given to including Emmanual Clase?

Ben Clemens

12:31

Eh, briefly

Wouldn't have been out of place on it for sure

Dirt Grub

12:31

8 of the current top 15 in pitching WAR this year are off the list. What gives?

Ben Clemens

12:31

A lot of them are on short contracts, basically

12:32

Also, Yu Darvish being great again, amazing

Kyle Blanks

12:32

Maybe a dumb comp if you know more about scouting, but does Matt Chapman’s trajectory worry you at all re Hayes’ value?

Ben Clemens

12:32

I mean, not really? Matt Chapman was great from 2018-2019, and he's pretty good now

12:33

If you told me Hayes would have Chapman's career he would have been higher on the list, not lower

Harding

12:33

Chapman returned Gleyber Torres. Surely that's more of a return than a bunch of the guys at the bottom of the list. Are there no relievers today that good?

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