JotCast | Trade Value Series Chat

Trade Value Series Chat - 7/29/22

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1:19

I think this series might work better in tier form than as an ordinal list. It's always repeated that there isn't much seperatin #35 from #60, but that warning always seems to fall on deaf ears. And at least for this year, there doesn't seem to be much separating the top 5, who as you mentioned each have concerns that prevent there from being a clear slam dunk #1 like there has been most years

Ben Clemens

1:19

Yeah, it would inarguably be better as a tier system, but people LOVE lists

It's a small cost for me to switch from tiers to lists, I'm a big kid, I can tune out the criticism

1:20

And again, people LOVE lists

so we do lists

Rickety Cricket

1:20

Going back to the Top 40 vs off debate... Would you rather take your rotation of Burnes, Alcantara, McClanahan, Manoah, Ohtani OR Scherzer, deGrom, Verlander, Wheeler, Cole?

Ben Clemens

1:20

so rotation is definitely close

let's replace dG for obvious reasons (sadly)

with Aaron Nola

I think I'd take the off-the-top-50 list by a hair

1:21

for this year, obv.... if we do more than one year I'm taking the one of a bunch of 25 year olds

but the hitting is just overwhelming

makes sense; I jammed hitters really high on the list

Steven

1:21

RE: Soto extension and his rank- trout was still 3rd after his extension. And he was quite a bit older than Soto (though also a little better to date). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-1-to-10/

Ben Clemens

1:21

Yeah... not to appeal to authority of the past compilers of the list, but those guys are smart

Wireless Joe Jackson

1:21

If you were to sign any of the current 60FV prospects to Hayes' contract, would they immediately be in the middle of the list somewhere? I'm always surprised at how rare those deals are, given how much sense they make for both parties.

Ben Clemens

1:22

No, I don't think so

Hayes has done a lot to demonstrate a floor of being an average to above average player

He has 877 major league PAs where he's hitting above average and playing elite defense, that's higher than a median expectation for a 60FV prospect imo

1:23

This is cherry picking of course, but hey, delicious cherries!

Jarred Kelenic has 473 major league PA at 68 wRC+

Wireless Joe Jackson

1:23

That's fair, but he's also done quite a bit to demonstrate that it's also his ceiling.

Ben Clemens

1:23

Haha that's where we disagree, I guess, but sure. The floor matters a lot though.

YorDaddy

1:23

If you were running a baseball team, would you rather have 5 players on this list or 10 players on the top 50 prospects list? Idk if that's actually a dumb question but is there an equilibrium number one way or the other?

Ben Clemens

1:24

I'm just a sucker for players who are good right now, which maybe makes me not a sucker?

it'd depend on where on the list they fall but, generally I'd prefer the currently good players

if it's #s 46-50, gimme the kids

Air Yordans

1:25

How much of a surplus value gap do you feel comfortable overlooking for the chance to concentrate so much WAR in one roster spot? Soto wouldn’t be 6th in the surplus value rankings but I understand those rankings would be an entirely different exercise

Ben Clemens

1:25

It's way more art than science. Were I GM'ing, I'd be pretty comfortable paying 1.5xish in prospects if I could acquire one 6 WAR player instead of two 3 WAR players

Tyler

1:26

Just curious - with such a big need for relief pitching across baseball at the trade deadline, why is it not more of an emphasis? Why are young BP arms like Clase, Duran, and Munoz not listed??

Ben Clemens

1:26

I think it basically comes down to the fact that years of control are, in general, less valuable for relievers

b/c of their inherent volatility

1:27

and also b/c it's harder to anchor your team with a reliever. WAR gets that right

there's an interesting phenomenon where teams seem happier to acquire relievers who are hot in-season at the deadline and pay up to do so

Clase could maybe have been on here, I don't think Duran and Munoz are even close to consideration

1:28

Alright.... I'm going to call it a day

and by that, I mean go record Effectively Wild to answer many of these questions again, just in audio

1:29

Please listen to FanGraphs audio today, where Eric Longenhagen and I discussed his trip to the All Star festivities and draft, as well as the construction of this list

And a belated huge thanks to Luke Hooper, who did the one uncontroversial thing about this list, the beautiful graphics

Suuuuuuuch a huge upgrade to the way it used to look, it makes me very happy to see the new images

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