JotCast | Trade Value Series Chat

Trade Value Series Chat - 7/29/22

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Ben Clemens

1:04

I attempted to factor it in, but it's extremely difficult

Calvin

1:05

Did any of the Twins come close? Ryan, Kirilloff, Miranda?

Ben Clemens

1:05

Polanco. I like Miranda but I want to see more from him

Dan

1:05

If I, a billionaire with not concern over contracts, form a team of players not in your top 40 and you form a team of only people from the top 40 who has the best starting nine and rotation? Obviously my bullpen is better.

Ben Clemens

1:07

Let's do it! Going catcher around the diamond, I'd have Smith, Vlad, Jose Ramirez playing second, Franco, Riley, Tucker, Buxton, Soto, Alvarez

rotation of Burnes, Alcantara, McClanahan, Manoah, Ohtani

1:09

You'd have: Realmuto (??), Goldy, Edman/LeMahieu, Trea Turner, Arenado, Judge....

Okay, I haven't figured out the rest of the outfield but my team would be better

Guest

1:09

I thought a Fangraphs writer published a worst contracts in baseball article, which is essentially least value? Unless I'm mistaken

Ben Clemens

1:10

Maybe that has happened, but I find it kind of gross and wouldn't do it

Guest

1:10

"If somebody with Ted Williams's hitting and Ozzie Smith's defense had one year left. . . ?" you said you'd rate them first, but Ohtani has Mark McGwire power and deGrom pitching and he's not top 10. Expand on rationale pls

Ben Clemens

1:10

Well... I'd prefer a player who combined the best defense ever with the best offense ever

to some cherry-picked superlatives

like, the guy we're talking about might be a 20 WAR player

1:11

15 squarely in his sights

Kyle Blanks

1:11

Do you think the fact that few guys on the list are ever available means that teams pay an inflated return relative to true value when they trade for one of the big fish that is available (putting Soto aside, will eg Murphy’s value go up by virtue of being the only other top guy on the market)

Ben Clemens

1:11

Ehhhhh... depends a lot on who they are, I'd say

I don't think Murphy would command quite the same premium b/c if you trade for him, you want him at least 50/50 b/c he's cheap for a while

1:12

it undermines that a little if you give up other cheap contracts/likely contributors

Whereas a guy who teams want b/c he's one of the best 5 players in baseball? That makes an overpay more likely in my opinion

Obviously this is theoretical, I don't talk to GM's or AGM's about it or anything

Guest

1:12

If Wander Franco hadn't signed that extension, would he still be number one?

Ben Clemens

1:13

Nah

HappyFunBall

1:13

Let's say Soto gets traded and extended before the next TV write up. What sort of contract gets him bumped up to #1? Or dropped out of the top-50 entirely?

Ben Clemens

1:13

Ooh, fun

#1? If he signed the Nats extension offer I think I would have him #1

1:14

but I'm sure that would be controversial

off the 50? hard for me to imagine an extension that's realistic that would do that

b/c it would be a bunch of control and a great player

GreenMan16

1:15

Bit off topic, but prospect-huggers are the most annoying type of fans right?

Ben Clemens

1:15

They're certainly my least favorite type

I love great baseball players

They're so great!

Guest

1:16

Not a trade value question but why don't more upper-tier MLB players take a year to year approach to contracts to max out on salary? We saw Scherzer and Correa kind of do it, but I'm talking like LeBron-esque levels of year to year salary signing. I feel like so many contenders would offer, say, Soto or Ohtani a 1 year, $50 mil deal to go for the all or nothing run.

Ben Clemens

1:16

Because maxing out on salary is kind of a meaningless goal (in my opinion at least) when you're gonna make 500 million dollars or whatever

1:17

I'd rather get to know my teammates, find a really nice ramen spot near my sweet house, become good friends with some of the clubhouse attendants, etc.

O's Fan 2012

1:17

If Grayson Rodriguez didn't get hurt several months ago, would he have cracked the top 50 list? Before the lat injury, he was a 65 grade prospect.

Ben Clemens

1:18

It would depend on his performance, but probably not. I'm very scared of pitching prospects from an attrition perspective and I think teams are too

O's Fan 2012

1:18

What is a realistic contract extension that Adley Rutschman could sign which would propel him to the top 10 of the list?

Ben Clemens

1:19

too early for him to sign a realistic extension imo. The only players who have done that are Tatis and Franco, and I think that deal makes less sense from the O's side b/c he's a catcher, so I think finding a middle ground between player and team before he reaches arb is just tough there

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