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Week 3 - Friday Chat
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AvatarJason from PoolGenius
1:00
Hi everyone, welcome to our Week 3 Friday Survivor chat. The Week 3 article has been updated today with an overview of where the pick recommendations are going, and an explanation of what you might be seeing https://poolgenius.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/w...
1:01
Since I wrote that, the Jacksonville line has dropped again, and is now down to -8 (it was at -9.5 or -10 earlier in week)
1:02
So we may see some previous Jacksonville picks shifting to other options, though they should still be near the top of the pick rankings.
1:05
For those that haven't seen, we now have a "where to play" page https://poolgenius.teamrankings.com/where-to-play/ that lists some sites with pool options. There are more "second chance/late start" pools now than ever at some of these sites. If you are looking to maximize your subscription (where you can add pools and get up to 30 different picks a week) there are lots of options.
1:06
Splash has several for this week and a big $50k pot one that starts Week 5, DraftKings is introducing several different priced and sized survivor pools each week, I've put entries in several over the last few weeks.
Nate
1:06
I keep looking ahead to Week 7, is it possible that 40 to 50% of many pools will be on the Seahawks? They look like the obvious pick and the only other decent options that week would be the Chiefs or 49ers.... maybe the Rams hosting the Steelers?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
1:07
Week 7 is definitely shaping up as a week where Seattle is going to be very popular. They could be the most popular pick of the year. We won't know for sure until we get there what the value proposition will be (it will depend on just how extremely popular they get, and if other options emerge)
1:08
Cleveland at Indy could emerge (if the Browns show better on offense), the Raiders at Bears (gulp) if the Bears continue to look awful.
1:09
that does look like a tough one, Week 9 is another, with Browns vs. Cardinals and Saints vs. Bears as our top two projected win odds, and teams likely to be available and popular.
TTHe FurmanaTTor
1:10
I have three teams still in ... and your current recommendations are Baltimore/Jax/KC ... I would like to save KC for future so would you recommend which of the following two options I am looking at (or are both bad? Replace KC (1) with Seattle OR (2) double down on Baltimore or jax?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
1:11
I would probably think about doubling down on a pick if you are fine with that, versus adding a third team who is higher risk across three entries. You are saving future value either way, so I would try to get a couple through with one result (my assumption is the pool is large enough to justify that)
what size pool is this?
TTHe FurmanaTTor
1:12
was 1100 ... has 650 remaining
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
1:14
yeah, that probably is going the distance to cash. I think using KC is fine on one of them, but I would also go Baltimore twice as another way to play it. I think I would prefer them over Jacksonville in this format. The Jags could be valuable in Week 17, a week where the Eagles, Bills and 49ers are the most likely other options, so saving the Jags on two of them gives you more flexibility on using those others up by then.
Nate
1:15
As you have mentioned, I keep seeing the Jags move slightly down in my pick rankings, would it be viable for me to just not pick them at all this week and spread my 10 picks across the Chiefs, Ravens and Cowboys? Or is 3 teams too narrow ? About 20% of my pool is on the Jags.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
1:17
It's absolutely viable to do that. We have the Jags because in a vacuum they are one of the best picks this week, mainly because the options run out and get pretty thin. You don't want to be too much riskier than the top win options teams, on picks like the Raiders etc. You don't want to use up heavy future value on teams like Buffalo or Miami that may have a little better EV.

If you are willing to embrace more concentration and portfolio risk, playing against the Jags is a way to go to give yourself a path to the biggest payoff possible.
1:18
I don't think 3 teams is too narrow for a 10-pick portfolio, the distribution this week is as much about distributing the future value being used across entries on different teams as well. You never know which path(s) will ultimately prove best.
1:21
As an example, I think the case for using Kansas City or Dallas is similar. It would be justifiable to just pick one and concentrate on them, but it's also a decent strategy move to use some of each so your entries have some diversity and ability to play it differently through the next several weeks.
1:23
Interestingly, we are showing the Seahawks line back down to -5.5, it had moved to -6 at some spots. The news that Andy Dalton will start instead of Young has basically had no impact and/or market has dropped back.
1:25
We have about 5 minutes left, get any questions you have in
TThe FurmanaTTor
1:26
Thanks so much for offering your expertise ... much appreciated!
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
1:27
hey, that's what we are here for, also like to bounce ideas around and hear what questions people have (and concerns)
1:28
Last Sunday, we got a mix of "shouldn't we take more risk" and "that team is too risky" so everyone has a different perspective, but being able to talk out alternatives and what is reasonable helps.
1:29
I'll be back live on Sunday morning, at 11:45 am ET/8:45 PT, ready to cover any late moves and overall pick strategy as we head toward the early kickoffs.
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