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Week 3 - Sunday Chat
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AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:46
Welcome to our Week 3 Sunday chat. The main thing we've seen over the weekend (not necessarily so far today) is continued line movement down in Jacksonville, which has caused them to drop a bit. So if you are just updating the picks for the first time since Friday or earlier, you may see less Jaguars than early in the week.
Bill
11:46
Thoughts on SEA-CAR game
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:47
Our models are in Carolina, and thus Seattle's win odds being lower than the market number. We listed Carolina as one of our upset picks in the weekly upsets article. The line has actually gone down since Dalton was confirmed as starter. Seattle's D is not good (31st in total yards and net yards per pass) and that is a factor with our models.
11:48
For survivor purposes, we do have a little bit of Seattle in large portfolios with specialty pools and multi-picks, but not at the public rate of 6%, and the model projection is part of the reason why (it's also a big risk drop-off from other choices, even at market odds)
Frank
11:48
Has Baltimore's injury list impacted their win probability today?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:49
A little bit, and it's being offset some by Indy injuries, where Minshew will start with Richardson out (and some other Colts injuries). But the line has dropped to 7.5.

Even with that, and with our models being slightly under market odds, they are a play mainly because (a) the odds are still pretty good and (b) the popularity gives them a better relative payoff potential.
Ben
11:50
I have a leagues that play modified multi-pick weeks, only Thanksgiving day games make up an additional pick for week 12. I am getting recommendations to pick Dallas. What is the best strategy for a pool with this type of format.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:50
did you set this pool up as a multi-pick?
Ben
11:51
Yes it is set up with multi-pick but the restriction of only having the 3 games (6 teams to pick from) is what is tripping me up.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:52
Okay, I would probably go to the next best option to Dallas in your pick rankings, to at least keep the possibility of Dallas that week. It's possible that they are saved too much and will be extremely popular then in your pool, so that you might want to play a Detroit or San Fran, but saving them now at least keeps that option open to decide later.
Cueso
11:53
I think the ravens colts game is going to be closer than people think.and I think Andy Dalton is a step up from the rookie
Jm
11:53
Ravens-colts still looking good?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:54
I'm gonna take these two together. I discussed some of the line movement down in Baltimore. They do have more risk than a KC or DAL pick, the trade-off is that they are not as useful in the future (though they will have other weeks that you can use them). You can decide if that downward risk (their odds still over 74%) is enough to use up more future value.
Bill
11:54
HOU has always played JAX tough, have things changed, ie JAX is better coached
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:56
Houston has played Jacksonville tough, though some of that is with entirely different teams, coaches, and players. That may explain part of the line movement down. Houston did beat Jacksonville in a big upset, though that was the first game where this current Jags team was playing in a big favorite role.

I think Houston has shown some ability to move the ball, and the Jags did struggle a bit on offense last week against KC, but that is all being accounted for in the win estimates.
Kevin
11:56
How do plan for pools you don’t expect to go the distance? Eg. 80 left...do you plan  expecting it to end roughly on a certain week?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
11:57
Good question. Our pick logic adjusts future value for pool size, not only at the start of the pool, but each week based on how many are left. So we are always trying to estimate how likely you will need a late pick. In pools with fewer left, the later weeks get de-emphasized a bit since you may not need them.
11:58
Part of the Kansas City value, relative to the others like Dallas (who has more weeks mid-season) is that one of KC's highest value weeks looks like Week 16 vs. Raiders at home. But if you may not need to get there, it's less important to save them, and thus we are seeing them recommended more in smaller pools.
11:59
We don't necessarily have a hard "it will end this week" estimate as a range of outcomes and probabilities for each week, with later weeks having lower odds and thus lower weight in our future value rankings.
Derek
12:01
hey folks! In one of the pools Im in, I have two entries remaining, which currently the system has the recommended picks as both Baltimore. Normally I wouldnt mind at this juncture because we have one strike for each entry up till Week 3. Unfortunately Ive used my strikes for each entry so I was wondering your thoughts. Should I go with the flow, pick a different team for one? Thanks!
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:03
Here's why the pick logic is recommending Baltimore, especially in a strike pool: they are way less popular. If you hope to win a strike pool, and you have used a strike, you need to tend to avoid the most popular teams and/or save them for use when weeks they won't be popular, after others have used them. If you pick the same as the leaders you can't gain on them by having them take a strike you don't.

All of our advice is subject to your view of the teams, but that's why it makes strategic sense this week.
Edward
12:03
How will the weather affect the Ravens-Colts game?
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:05
the biggest thing would be the wind, as if the wind gets too high, that's what kills passing games. It would impact the points scored, and the passing games more. It might reduce the odds a bit (though, that may be part of why the line is dropping a bit already). I would think Indy would have had a better outlook in a wind game with a running QB like Richardson.
Ben Shushan
12:05
Hi guys. I want to echo the concern about the Ravens (I'm getting over 40% recommended across pools). I'm looking hard at adding some JAX instead (slightly lower EV due to higher Ownership, but almost no FV). And possibly a little Seattle...????

Any input welcome.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:07
The Ravens have the same market odds as the Jags at far less popularity. The Seahawks are riskier. The public doesn't seem to think so, but the betting market is telling us that (Also, Seattle is the most popular pick in our pick'em pool data ATS, and we are taking Carolina with a Staff Pick).

You ultimately decide how you want to use your entries. We recommend the team that has the best value (considering both now and the future) with our logic. We are now under the public on the Jags and the Seahawks.
HSM10708
12:08
in a large pool   still have 350 left.  I have used wash and nyg.  I am looking at seatle
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:09
It seems like the chat is confirming our data that Seattle is a popular pick. Who is the pick logic recommending? I doubt it is Seattle.
Justin
12:09
You have me 3 KC, 2 Bal and 1 Dallas (with all Jags removed).  Any issues with going 4 KC and just 1 BAL and 1 DAL?  If I use 2 on BAL I have no BAL left whatsoever (assuming I win)
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:10
I think going more KC would be fine, though I don't think I would avoid picking a team because it would use them up (if they weren't one of the top future value teams). I would rather have more KC than more BAL after Week 3.
Ben Shushan
12:11
Ok. I'll roll with you guys (i no there are no guarantees). Maybe a tiny adjustment. I am using this site for a reason. Apologies to the extent that my questions were redundant. Didn't have time to review the thread first (will try to avoid that in future). Thanks!
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:11
no problem, I have multiple questions in the queue and so there will be a little delay in answering some.
Alan
12:11
It looks like the most popular pick in Circa survivor is the Jags, followed by the Chiefs.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:12
The Jags were at 41%. I predicted over 32%, but said it could be higher. Circa tends to go extremely heavy on whatever team saves the most future value, among the top five or so favorites. We saw that in Week 1 (Washington at 38%) and Week 2 (Buffalo at 40%). I think Jags were a clear fade in Circa. One upset nearly chops the pool in half.
12:13
The thing that surprised me most is that more Washington week 1 pickers aren't using Baltimore now
Edward
12:13
Richardson is out back up in for the colts. Jackson QB for Ravens has found his game last week.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:15
Yes, Gardner Minshew is starting for the Colts. Ravens will be without Beckham (though they should be fine at WR), Linderbaum at C and Stanley at OT (Linderbaum missed last week too), and probably the biggest one, Marlon Humphrey.
Ben Shushan
12:15
Justin, BAL has little FV so holding on to them isn't a big deal (to my understanding). I'm getting 5 of 13 BAL, including 4 of 5 in one pool. I'm having trouble pulling the trigger on 4 of 5 in the same pool. I'm buying into the logic though. Jason, I forgot to mention that part of my hesitation with BAL was the extreme concentration in one of my pools. I think at this point I'm going to just go for it. Can you see my hesitation? Thanks, all done.
AvatarJason from PoolGenius
12:16
Yeah, 4 of 5 is high, I guess it depends on the overall percentage, and how important each pool is. If I happened to get knocked out (or gain an advantage) in one of my pools by concentrating, versus spreading across others, I am not sure it matters other than how many sites I have to check in on. But that depends on whether some contests are worth way more to me than others.
12:17
But swapping some picks across pools would be fine, or adjusting the percentages slightly. I just wouldn't be swapping the whole portfolio out from Baltimore to Seattle.
12:21
I do want to say that in general, we provide our best recommendations. Those are graded within each pool, and then the portfolio logic tries to balance how many teams to use that week, and what concentration, based on the overall outlook of the week and the pick grades across all your pools.

But each of you ultimately does have agency to make calls. A lot of times, a team we have graded 98 and another 97, will get a high degree of picks over the other based on a very small difference in grade. So check the pick grades to see just how close we think two decisions are within a pool. If you want to be more or less concentrated, after reviewing those grades, that is fine.

There are others where we would disagree strategically, like using a lot of Seattle this week, given the overall risk profile of the week.
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