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2025 FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects Chat
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It's in the CARDS
1:20
Regarding your charts of probable FV outcomes, could you provide examples about what actually happens to players who fall short or leap forward from your prediction? I imagine injuries are one example of poor/bust outcomes, and unlocking better tools through development could explain better ones. I'm just looking for non-obvious, but real-life (as opposed to statistical/probabilistic) reasons why pro athletes foil expectations.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:21
You nailed the two big ones. Player makeup is important, scouting-to-dev cohesion is important, biomechanical analysis and proactive intervention, good people on he dev side who communicate with each other and have common objective for their players... lots of niy gritty subjective stuff. The way bodies develop in unexpected ways...
Ray From Tampa
1:22
Have you phased out Braden Taylor, you were fairly positive on him in the past?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:23
No, he's okay. Defense, swing geared for crazy lift. 70% contact guy without big raw juice.
just not a top 100 guy
Kathy
1:23
Are Waldrep and Iriarte relievers now? You still seemed relatively bullish on Waldrep as of last July. Good walk rate at AA. What happened?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:23
Iriarte I still think should start. His velo was down last year.
Art Fuldoger
1:23
You mention a possibility of Freeland breaking camp? Super UT or and actual everyday player?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:24
Every day guy, might be the best SS defender in camp depending on how Hyeseong looks.
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1:25
Just want to say thanks for all the work, and fwiw I appreciate the way the schedule of team list releases gives us fresh updated intel on early season movers for the later lists.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:25
Thanks so much, doing it on my own this year was quite the lift.
Erik Neander
1:26
How close was Theo Gillen to making the list? What can he do to improve his prospect value?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:26
Find a defensive fit on the middle of the diamond.
Love his bat, stuffed him pre-draft
Rob
1:26
How close was Jackson Ferris from making the list?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:27
He's just outside of it but was a confident exclusion. Lemme paste his report for yall
1:28
Signed for $3 million as a second rounder in 2022, Ferris didn't pitch at an affiliate after the draft and was handled pretty conservatively during his pro debut, as he made 18 starts but only pitched 56 strikeout- and walk-heavy innings. He was traded to Los Angeles during the offseason as part of the Michael Busch swap with the Cubs and had a more stable 2024, as Ferris worked 126.2 innings, posted a 3.20 ERA, and reached Double-A toward the end of the year (where his strikeouts and walks regressed). 
Ferris has a powerful lower half, bending deep into his blocking leg. The Dodgers seem to have altered the direction of Ferris' stride a little bit, and he now appears more closed off. Ferris will touch 96 but tends to sit 92-94. His fastball generated an average rate of chase and miss in 2024, as did his most-used secondary pitch, a slider in the 83-86 mph range. Ferris can also lob in a slow, mid-70s curveball, and at times his changeup has bat-missing action, but that pitch has come along more slowly than
than hoped when he was drafted and is still below average, as is his command. He lacks a plus pitch right now and, at a pot-bellied age 21, isn't obviously projectable. He looks like a fair no. 4/5 starter.
Of course, Dodgers dev...
1:29
but again, the exercise is about scouting and not predicting. It'd be weird to slide a guy just because the Dodgers traded him to a team that has struggled with dev, right?
Kathy
1:29
Will Chen-Wei Lin be a 45+ at next list publication?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:29
In that area, yeah. He's nasty, I love his upside.
Maddoning
1:30
Have you ever ranked a prospect with a 70+ hit tool, and little else?  Maybe I'm describing Willans Astudillo?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:31
lol you are. The Board | FanGraphs Baseball
Jonathan
1:31
Was there a tiny part of you that wanted to rank Wilcott 1st?  If Sasaki were the 2023 version it would be a no-brainer, but after Roki's 2024 I'm just a little unsure.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:32
I'm with you. 2023 Roki would have been a 70.
And yes on sea bass
I love him
Esix Snead
1:32
I have a weird fascination with Yordany de los Santos.  He has such tantalizing skills but hasn't been able to put it together past R-ball.  Anything going on under the hood that we should be aware of?  A guy to watch for next year or just a flash in the international pan like Shalin Polanco?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:33
Close to average power now with big projection, really, really aggressive hitter with terrifying chase.
Lord Thunder
1:34
What are timelines for Do Yeong KIm and Shunpeita Yamashita possibly coming stateside?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:35
I think Shun's timeline to satisfy the CBA's age/experience requirement is post-2027, and Kim's is post-2029. I don't know if what Roki did this offseason will make others want to matriculate early.
For new folks, reports on those guys are here, click the clipboard. The Board | FanGraphs Baseball
pedro
1:36
Do you do a "recent graduates" column that covers guys that just barely lost their rookie eligibility?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:36
(Tim Curry voice) nYesssss. The Board | FanGraphs Baseball
Phil
1:37
Any additional comments on the ETAs of R Anthony and K Campbell? The guys at my local bar in Somerville think 2025, you have 2026.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:38
Late 2025 with 2026 rookie eligibility exhaustion seems totally feasible. the big league outfield is pretty crowded right now. tell ya mutha hai fuh me uhkay?
Jack
1:38
Hi Eric, thanks for the chat. Which of these lottery ticket arms are you the highest on, and why? Humberto Cruz, Keyner Benitez, Jose Paulino, Johnny King, Esteban Mejia, Dalvison Reyes, Juan Valera, or Sheng-Ein Lin?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:38
nom nom nom nom nom great question...
Ugh, i have to pick ONE?
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