JotCast | AL Wild Card Chat

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Ben Clemens

10:47

No, talking about how it's a good offensive metric. The Statcast broadcast is amazing.

Belli Flop

10:48

Unfortunately I cannot watch tomorrow's Dodger game (I am a fan of that team, hence my name) due to a prior commitment. Ben, please represent me in the chat with bad puns and childish nicknames!

Ben Clemens

10:49

I might need help on the nicknames, but puns, done.

hildebeast21

10:49

With all the data out there, and all the machine learning, and all the interpretive analysis or whatever, I'm curious what the next edge is. I sincerely believe it's outright fleecing teams in trades.

Ben Clemens

10:49

Machine learning is great because it's just a way of saying "we use regressions" that also makes you sound smart.

Dan Szymborski

10:49

Ben and Craig are on Dodgers/Nats tomorrow and McDongenhagen on Cards/Braves

10:50

I'm on Houston/LikelyRays Game 1 and Jay so far on Yankees/Twins

No chats for games 2/3

Then chats for 4/5 if necessary

Ben Clemens

10:50

Oh yeah, I'll be assisting Dan briefly on the Astros game.

Dan Szymborski

10:50

ALCS/NLCS, we're tentatively doing 1/5/6/7 and all 7 for series

hildebeast21

10:51

yeah yeah i know, in sample vs. out of sample or whatever. i'm not a smart man, but i know what love is.

Lunar verLander

10:51

If Bellinger lays out for a diving catch, I'll feel sad for you, Belli Flop

Dan Szymborski

10:51

Belli Flop

10:52

If a game goes many innings into the night, will you plan to chat? I do not believe there was even a chat for game 3 last year.

Dan Szymborski

10:52

I don't think we planned for chats as systematically last year.

Alex

10:53

So, this is probably fairly basic, but I genuinely don't know. Is there a stat that differentiates between the circumstances in which runners are LOB? Like, say a team left 10 runners on base. 10 runners stranded at first who got there with 2 outs seems so different than 10 stranded in scoring position with no outs, but LOB glosses over this.

Ben Clemens

10:53

We do have a deep bench this year when it comes to authors.

Dan Szymborski

10:53

I think LOB stats haven't really been useful enough for people to do too much

stever20

10:53

I'm really glad you're going to be doing chats for all games in the WS this year.

Ben Clemens

10:54

Me too. This time last year I was a reader rather than a writer here and I just always wished there were more chats.

Matt

10:54

LOB% is a modeled stat, isn't it?

Dan Szymborski

10:54

Yes.

(H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR))

hildebeast21

10:54

doesn't RE24 handle that?

Belli Flop

10:55

I'm lazy so how is our True Outcomes/Lyin' Outcomes count doing?

stever20

10:55

I think my favorite chat ever was 2017 game 5- that insane game with the Dodgers/Astros. I remember Dave just opened a thread saying we'll have more in the morning but have at it.

Dan Szymborski

10:56

Watching Luzardo, even in a doomed game, is a lot of fun

Matt

10:56

Isn't the opposite of true false?

Dan Szymborski

10:56

eurt

Belli Flop

10:56

My favorite chat ever was 2016 game 7. Jeff just went ballistic.

Pontoons

10:56

Are lies somehow not false?

Dan Szymborski

10:57

Ben Clemens

10:57

True Outcomes 30
Lyin' Outcomes 36

Jordan

10:57

And you ask why I would trade you for Jeff or Dave....

Ben Clemens

10:57

unless I lost count somewhere which is possible

Wire Fan

10:57

Would xRBI have any value? (expected RBI accounting for the game state)

Dan Szymborski

10:57

There's a bit of RBI modeling in ZiPS, but it's not really LOB-based

Ben Clemens

10:57

Might be helpful for arb projections?

Dan Szymborski

10:58

Dave and I came up in nerd world together as teenagers.

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