JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/28/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 11/28/22

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Insert Witty Name Here

2:35

Hypothetical: Take two highly knowledgeable baseball people. Person 1 only has access to all private and public data collected on a random team of 2022 but no video. Person 2 has the privilege of watching (and rewatching) every play of every game of said team in 2022 but with no access of any data of any kind. Not even handwritten notes. Who do you think would have more accurate 2023 projections, and how wide of a gap would it be?

Ben Clemens

2:35

Hmmmm

I think I'd favor the person who got data but no video

2:36

Actually yeah, I don't think it'd be that close

2:37

Just, video only is so hard

You need some data

Dan'l

2:38

Do the Cards need to think about the 2024 rotation this offseason? A lot of 2023 starters could potentially be gone then...

Ben Clemens

2:38

In theory yes, but in practice they're not gonna do some fantasy-style trades where they add while subtracting and whatnot

Kenob Rosengale

2:38

Hey Ben, any scoops you might have on who the Phillies will sign?

Ben Clemens

2:39

If you mean the real-life Phillies, I think they'll go small and sign some pitching. If you mean the MEB Phillies, they're still covering their eyes in embarrassment b/c their good-for-nothing GM didn't protect Rule 5 players (oof)

Just Fowl

2:39

Has the Cherington era damaged the collective psyche of Red Sox fans as to the lack of patience with Bloom? There is an imminent surge from the pipeline, but

Ben Clemens

2:39

Yeah, this sounds right to me

2:40

My Red Sox fan friends are generally just over the prospect-building hype

Derek

2:40

What's your favorite FA-Team combination still on the table? I think Turner to Baltimore, and the resulting lineup containing Turner+Mullins+Mateo, would be incredible. So many stolen bases, especially with the new pickoff rules.

Ben Clemens

2:41

Oh, that does sound fun. I'm not sure how they'd get both Mateo and Turner on the field, b/c I don't think Mateo makes much sense unless he can play short and I don't think Turner is gonna move for Jorge Mateo, but it would be really fun

I think Rodon Astros would just be really fun to me. Rodon feels like an Astros kind of pitcher and I think they'd really bring out the best in him. I also think it'd be great if they looked at his pitch mix and just went, oh, yeah, okay it was already optimized

2:42

I would also be a fan of Judge to the Giants, partially b/c it's a fun fit of team to player that I could watch in person, partially because I'd love seeing him hit oppo shots into the cove

People would just gasp

Insert Witty Name Here

2:42

What niche of baseball writing would you like to see more of?

Ben Clemens

2:43

This is obviously self-serving, but I love articles that use data to enhance a narrative, but are generally narrative-driven

2:44

It's not that there are none of these, but they're my favorites so I'd like to see more of them

I think that stories too often veer to one extreme or the other

Ernie Banksy

2:44

What are the Brewers trying to do? That Josh Hader trade seemed like a very cute attempt to save money AND get better that didn't quite work....do you expect more gymnastics like that from the cash-strapped Brew Crew/

Ben Clemens

2:44

I think that was their general plan: get better now and also in the future via 4-D chess

2:45

I expect more of that, to be honest. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of Burnes or Woodruff leave town, which will clear up money to sign the other one plus Willy Adames to an extension

2:46

and then you go get a McCutchen-y bat and call it a day

Steve O.

2:46

Jorge Mateo had an 82 wRC+ last season. They should probably upgrade on his position.

Ben Clemens

2:46

Eh, they don't HAVE to. He's a really good defensive shortstop, which counts for a lot

2:47

Like, he was nearly a 3-WAR player, though he probably won't grade out so highly on defense next year

2:48

It's totally fine to play someone like that. He really is a spectacular defender

baseballenjoyer

2:49

Rodon should have been an Astro from the jump. The Aiken pick...

Ben Clemens

2:49

Hey, didn't that turn into Kyle Tucker?

2:50

Nope it turned into Bregman and Tucker was their regular pick

Yeah, uh, I think they're happy with how it went

Grant

2:50

Brewers follow-up: why are we hearing they're so adamant (Adames-ant?) about not trading Adames? I get why a normal team would want to keep him, but given the way they operate, it seems like a weird line to draw.

Ben Clemens

2:50

I get the sense that they have correctly reasoned that his trade value lags behind his value to the team

or at least, his perceived trade value

2:51

and so are preemptively saying they won't trade him because they know they won't at current market perception, so they might as well get some goodwill out of it

Plus he seems great! They should keep him

2:52

Abreu is gonna be around 3/20 apparently, btw

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