JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/2/24

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Lord Thunder

2:39

If Eric isn't around and somebody asks you what Triple-A catcher, Agustin Ramirez or Drake Baldwin, you prefer. What do you say?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I'd probably make a Drake pun first

2:41

but I prefer Baldwin, I am a little more willing to believe his batting line given the peripherals and while I don't have a ton of visibility into minor league catcher defense, they seem comparable there

Henry D.

2:41

Some reports today that the NYM are interested in Walker Buehler. I like gambling on him in a vacuum, but are they really going to hit on WB and Montas in the same season the way they did with Sevi and Manaea? Seems like too much risk.

Ben Clemens

2:41

I'd actually argue that it's a risk mitigation strategy

sure, sometimes you can hit on every signing and things work out great, but generally speaking, signing more lottery tickets increases the chances of hitting on at least one

2:42

there's obivously some contract amount where it switches to being downside risk because you're paying him as if he's going to be elite

but that's tougher to judge, and I don't think Buehler is gonna get that amount

Stuck on holidays guy

2:42

Have you ever given a gift that you're still proud of?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I'm gonna mention a gift my wife gave first, because it was just that awesome: for her mom's 70th, she got 70 people to write messages and put them all in a book together

that was a great one, I thought

2:44

not counting that: I got my wife a set of knives in 2015 that we still love today, and they've been incredibly useful the whole time, so I'll say that

Plan B

2:44

If the Yankees lose out on Soto, how much would Bellinger help them?

Ben Clemens

2:44

not much, imo

2:45

I will say, I'm lower on Bellinger than consensus

he was in my top 50 provisionally when it seemed like he might opt out and I got a lot of comments that I had him too low

2:46

I think that plenty of people believe he's a 20% above average bat who can play an excellent center field, whereas I think he's an average bat and average outfield defender

Cohen

2:46

So if he DOESN'T get Soto after he's spent several years talking up his spending, is that considered a real ding? (Obviously not on his overall tenure)

Ben Clemens

2:46

If it's because of a lack of a serious offer, yes

2:47

if it's because he and the Yankees both offer 13/700 and Soto wants to hang out with his buddy Aaron, well, I think it depends on how hard the Mets pitched him

but nothing about this pursuit, and his pursuit of free agents generally, has made me think that Cohen is unserious about getting the best players

Guest

2:47

RE: Sasaki to the Dodgers
I still think they have a shot, but it's unquestionably harder to sell him on going there when, in a perfect world, he would look like the odd man out in the playoff rotation. I'd imagine he wouldn't be in over Snell, Glasnow, Yamamoto, or Ohtani. So that brings me to my point, do you believe the Snell signing means they still very much believe they will get him? Or they didn't belive they were going to get him in the first place?

Ben Clemens

2:48

Yeah, that's fair. I think it's more the second, that they weren't sure if they would get him - how could they be? And they also weren't sure if he'd be an impact arm in 2025. so they're just trying to win a bunch now, because that seems smart

take the deal in front of you and deal with tomorrow tomorrow, that kidn of thing

hoenstly I think the Dodgers are so well-run that it's almost un-fun

2:49

they make the decisions I would make on a strategic front plenty of the time, and when they do something I wouldn't have done, I frequently find that I liked their choice after the fact

Judge and Soto

2:49

If Soto ends up staying partially because he likes playing with that big guy, on top of Judge just casually throwing up a second 11fWAR season, how not terrible is that Judge contract?

Ben Clemens

2:49

yeah the Judge deal is looking like quite a bargain so far, amazingly enough

2:50

he's already cranked out 16 WAR since signing it, captured an MVP, dragged the team to an ALE win

Bencle Mens

2:50

How bad are the Yankees' vibes going to be when Soto signs with the Mets or Red Sox?

Ben Clemens

2:50

so bad

so so bad

Kave Dingman

2:50

Dodgers and escrow - I had not heard about this before. I know that the Dodgers get hit with an-NPV like hit to their luxury cap number. For Ohtani, is the escrow the same as that roughly $46 million cap hit?

Ben Clemens

2:51

yeah more or less. Here's a nice little Gemini summary, shout out to Google

hen to set aside: Teams must start allocating the deferred money by the second July 1 after the season it was owed. For example, if a player is deferring $68 million in 2024, the team must fully fund the present value of that money by July 2026.
How to set aside: Teams can allocate the money in cash, stocks, or "unencumbered assets". The league and union can also agree on an alternative form.
Who holds the money: The money is held on behalf of the player and cannot be accessed.
Interest: The team can earn interest on the money, which they can spend.

John

2:51

With the caveat that nobody really knows yet, can you say which is more suspect in pitcher injuries: increased velocity or emphasis on spin rates?

Ben Clemens

2:51

i think it's kind of a hybrid of these - it's the velocity on the bendy pitches

2:52

91 mph sliders are hard on the arm on multiple fronts

angels

2:52

You think the angels will go after any more starters? Based on Perry's comments it sounds like Anderson or Detmers will be dealt and they'll bring in another arm

Ben Clemens

2:53

I do - maybe someone in the Pivetta/Sevy tier?

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