JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/2/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 12/2/24

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Ben Clemens

2:53

I don't think Anderson has much of a trade market. not that his contract is underwater, just that he's more of a 'trade this guy for a prospect at the deadline when a team has an injury problem' option instead of a 'swap him for immediate major league help in January' option

2:54

Detmers could get them something helpful right away, so if they want to move him, they'd find takers

Appa Yip Yip

2:54

Or maybe it's because Soto wants to spend time with his even better buddy Vlad did u think of that Ben??

Ben Clemens

2:54

living in Toronto does sound pretty n ice

I'd definitely be interested. I'd even accept less than Soto

Maddie

2:54

Is Thairo Estrada just done? Feels like the Giants gave up on him early.

Ben Clemens

2:55

I'm not sure he's done, but: I have been a seller for years, I just don't quite see how he can deliver above average value without something significant changing

2:56

I don't think his defense is as good as it was graded in 2023, his offense is surely at least a little below average, I have him as a second division regular or nice utility guy

maybe the Giants gave up on that a little early but I don't think he'll get paid more than his arb award would have been, and he certainly didn't feel like a long term solution to me, so I see why they moved on

Eric

2:57

Do you buy the Boras narrative that Chicago winds suppressed Bellinger last year and he would be a buy low if he was dealt somewhere?

Ben Clemens

2:57

Not really

2:58

one person who probably agrees with me: Cody Bellinger, who chose to remain on the Cubs instead of testing free agency

Badeball

2:58

Is plossible a combination of possible and plausible? If so, I like it

Ben Clemens

2:58

it wasn't supposed to be but now I'm with you

Idiotic Failson

2:58

Is there a negotiating universe where Cohen just tells Boras 'we'll give Soto $600mm or match whatever the highest offer is'? It feels like that's an Uncle Steve kind of move.

Ben Clemens

2:58

yes

I think that's fairly likely, in fact

2:59

that's how the Ohtani and Judge negotiations apparently went down; the Giants offered those guys the exact deals they received elsewhere

Henry Dodger

2:59

There's a narrative in NYC that says that Luisangel Acuna was "bored" in the minors and that's why he didn't perform better. I find it very difficult to believe. You?

Ben Clemens

2:59

Yeah, I don't buy it

or well, if that's the case, we have a completely different problem

Occam's razor here, for me, though

Alf

3:00

You're GM Ben Clemens of the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Blue Jays/ other team serious about Soto. At what financial point do you just say it's too much money and let him go somewhere else?

Ben Clemens

3:00

Probably depends more on ownership, to be honest, and how those teams construct budgets

3:01

I think that around 13/700 I'd be telling my owner that this deal doesn't make financial sense, but I figure if I'm a GM I'm going to be frequently asking the owner to spend more and compete more frequently, so this would seem like a good time to push that message

Wyatt

3:02

Am I crazy to have Wyatt Langford as a top ten position player in fantasy next year?

Ben Clemens

3:02

Top ten seems a little aggressive

but higher than he finished this year by a good bit, for sure

Lord Thunder

3:02

Out of the Jays' return for Kikuchi -- Wagner, Loperfido, and Bloss -- who will produce the most value in the near future ... and beyond?

Ben Clemens

3:03

at this point I guess Wagner is looking pretty good. But gimme Bloss, I talked myself into him when he started hopping levels in Houston last year

the Wagner throw-in was a great move by Toronto

Matt

3:03

Regarding "we'll match whatever the highest offer is", do teams actually know what the highest offers are? Seems like they are all left in the dark to various degrees and only Soto's team knows. I guess Soto's team could tell you what their highest offer is, but would you believe them? Or are FA negotiations fairly transparent?

Ben Clemens

3:03

Truthfully, I'm not sure

3:04

My guess is that Boras and most agents are fairly truthful about this, though

It's a repeated game, and if you get caught lying once, the costs in future rounds of negotiation are huoge

huge*

3:05

profit-maximizing behavior in a one-round negotiation might be to lie, but trust feels important to Boras's ability to do his job well

SPArn

3:05

What do you mean that Nick Castellanos isn't a good defender?! His fielding percentages are fantastic!

Ben Clemens

3:05

I've actually never committed an error in professional baseball

for what it's worth

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