JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/1/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/1/21

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Darren

3:01

breaking news that the Mets acquired Jordan Yamomoto for a low prospect. More competition with Lucchesi for fifth starter

Berk Wendell

3:01

Mets just traded for Jordan Yamamoto. Thoughts on the salvageable upside there?

Ben Clemens

3:01

Yeah into it

3:02

Not sure I can tell you honestly that he's going to be a plus fifth starter

But I like the idea of just adding bulk and seeing if someone figures something out

Guest

3:02

We've seen some very team-friendly extensions signed the last few years (e.g., Albies). Conversely, what are some examples where what looked like a team-friendly extension turned out to seriously burn the team?

Ben Clemens

3:02

There just aren't any

That's not how it works

3:03

The first 6 years of service time are such a cudgel that teams can sign these deals that simply don't have true fail cases

Like, yeah, Jon SIngleton didn't work out

It cost the Astros 10 million bucks, whatever

Cakes&Kakes

3:03

Jon Singleton seems like an early extension that burned

Ben Clemens

3:03

:) on the same page here

It's just, the downside is so low

3:04

Compared to the upside when you hit it

G4

3:04

Has a team ever committed to a season-long positional platoon of a same-sided power vs contact duo? In such a case, would you start each player based on opposing SP arsenal, ballpark, etc? I'm thinking about how the Brewers should best go about approaching shortstop PT for Urias (contact/OBP) and Arcia (defense/ISO with swing and miss) until one breaks out. Did you think about this while managing OOTP?

Ben Clemens

3:04

I think the reason you don't see it much is because it's an inefficient use of resources. Same-handed hitters with different profiles aren't THAT different based on the pitcher/park combo they're facing

To where you shouldn't just play the better one as much as possible

Sea Monkey, Not a Monkey

3:05

It seems there must be about 25 teams whose fanbases are incredibly bored or frustrated this offseason. How many of them are justified in resenting the baseball business model and how many should just resign themselves to the fact that free agents are a bad way to build teams and trades are inherently risky/frustrating?

Ben Clemens

3:05

So, this whole 'free agents are a bad way to build a team' narrative has gotten out of hand

The Dodgers won the WS this year, and they don't go big on free agents, but Mookie was essentially a free agent acquisition

3:06

The Nats won the year before that, largely on the back of their free agent signings

The Red Sox won before that on the back of their free agent signings

The Astros won before that, and trading for and then extending stars was a big part of that

When's the last time a team won the WS without a major free agent chunk to the team? The Astros probably count

But even they went out and got Verlander and Cole

Pessimistic Mariners Fan

3:07

Too early to say the Evan White extension burned the Mariners? 24 million in guaranteed money and a 66 wRC+ last year.

Ben Clemens

3:07

Nah, again, worst case is 24 million lost, but they would have paid him probably 8 million even without an extension to find out

That's if he never gives them ANYTHING

He's capable of getting in the conversation for worst deal ever for an early extension, it's just, the fail case isn't so bad

Montreal Tampa Bay Rays

3:07

What do you think Arozarena will do next year? Is he anything like he was in the postseason?

Ben Clemens

3:08

I used to be a huge positive outlier in terms of my Arozarena forecast

From my time as a Cardinals writer, I fell in love with the skillset

I think I'm still a little higher than projections -- I'd set an over/under at around 120 wRC+ this year

But I mean nothing like the postseason, sadly

George

3:08

Re: Salary Floor How would you ever see a Salary Cap if there was no Salary floor? I don't know why the players would ever agree to it and it feels like owners would want a hard cap.

Ben Clemens

3:09

Oh, yeah, you'd need a floor with a cap

But the owners don't actually care THAT much about a cap because they're doing a good job of enforcing a soft cap without bothering to conceded anything in exchange

Concede*

Guest

3:09

For less random playoffs: the best team in each league gets 10 free ghost runners they can use in any inning they want (limited to one runner per inning) during the course of each post-season series. The next best team gets 5 ghost runners, and the other teams get no ghost runners. Do it.

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