JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/8/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 6/8/26

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

This chat is available to members only. Please log in to participate.

Ben Clemens

2:52

i mean, it might still be

2:53

but it's a really boom/bust looking roster, and when the stars they picked haven't played well, uh....

like, it's great to have great players. but the whole idea of them is that it's harder to get a 4 WAR player than 2 2 WAR players

2:54

but the Giants have bottom 10 projections in a LOT of spots on their offesnse, the rotation does not have enough arms, and the bullpen isn't great

2:55

like.... the whole reason stars are getting more valuable is because the competitive teams first filled themselves out with good players

and then upgrading from there is hard

the Giants haven't yet hit that first step

Phillip Denny

2:55

Padres has been trying stars and scrubs for years now and never made it further than the CS in 2022.

Ben Clemens

2:55

yeah, and the Padres have better stars than the Giants imo

flightsongs

2:55

Hey Ben, how do I talk to my friend better about baseball? His interest in the game exploded in the mid-oughts analytics boom and he delighted in the snarky commentary that ridiculed old-school thinking that refused to learn new things about the game. 20 years later, he's still very sure of that era's insights and I fear wouldn't be able to appreciate your article about bunting, for example, because he's so slow to update his priors. How do I break it to him gently that he's being the new Joe Morgan and needs to fire himself?

Ben Clemens

2:55

oh man, this is a great question, and one I'm constantly wondering about myself

2:56

one of the big downsides of analytical thought is that it's easy to get trapped in past analytical views. I think I've talked about model blindness before - once you quantify something, the things outside that quantification stop existing to you

I'm not quite sure how to break it to him gently. But i guess one way to think about it is that we're never quite sure of how to win at baseball, and it's also changing all the time

2:57

we still don't know what's right. but we've gotten a lot more data and cameras and stuff and tried to get rid of some of that model blindness over the past few decades, and you can see that as teams spend more and care more about this kind of stuff, they've branched out massively from 'saber 1.0'

2:58

I guess I'd say that my interest also boomed in that time, particularly b/c the Cards got really good. But I just love baseball? So the thing that keeps me coming back is not the numbers, it's the game

which makes it easier to accept that the numbers I thought were the good ones might not be

bosoxforlife

2:58

Royce Lewis is mind-boggling. His stint at AAA blows the mind. He hit 10 HR's in 60 AB's then comes back up and, in just 2 games, does nothing again. He needs a change of scenery but what is he worth?

Brayan Bello for Royce Lewis looks like a deal that just has to happen.

Ben Clemens

2:58

I don't think the Twins are interested in taking on payroll, even very affordable payroll

maybe if the Sox eat a ton of it?

2:59

but yeah, they should just deal him. Like, let's just try something new. it's for the best for everyone

maybe you swing a bigger deal with Joe Ryan in it if the Sox still want to comepte to make the money kinda even out

jason shure

2:59

Is it conceivable that Trout could continue this way and then his contract would no longer be underwater?

Ben Clemens

2:59

yeah, for sure

3:00

he has 4 more yeras after this one, at 35.5 per

3:01

if he's a 4 WAR dude this year, I'm fairly certain that with the current cost of a free agent and ZiPS aging curves, he'd be like scratch surplus value in my model

and if a 4-WAR trout season seems wild to you, we're projecting him for 4.2, so it's not outside of the realm of possibility at all

health is the big issue, rigth?

so if he's healthy, and if he's still a 140 wRC+ hitter, I think that's basically 'not underwater'

K’d Cavalli

3:01

Eli Willits showing more pop, less contact, and the swing decisions than we expected. Where are you on him and is that different from a year ago?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I'm not 'nowhere', but I'm close to nowhere

we have a lot of really smart, really diligent, and really focused prospect guys at FanGraphs

they're working tirelessly to write about these guys

I do data stuff, write a column about funny baseball things I see, and evaluate major league talent

so honestly, ask Eric. I just parrot his and Brendan's (and the rest of the team's) views as a default, because they're really good at what they do

TraBuch

3:03

Am I crazy to think the Braves should let Acuna walk when he's a FA? I'm assuming he's gonna want a huge contract after signing such a team friendly deal, is his risk worth that money?

Ben Clemens

3:03

I mean, depends what the deal is, right?

if you think that free agent deals are actually open market htings, what he wants matters less than what the market wants to give him

hayz11

3:03

Fun Kevin McGonigle trivia because he's awesome: He is currently running a 13.7% BB rate and a 13% K rate. Only one rookie in the past 30 years has hit those marks - can you guess who?

Ben Clemens

3:03

hmmmmmmm

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat