JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/21

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Ben Clemens

2:38

Most certainly not

I don't get out to the Middle East very often (though I did live in Saudi Arabia for a year when I was in kindergarten)

Jake

2:38

Apologies if this has been asked... but when do you think Jose Miranda gets the callup for the Twins? He's absolutely mashing

Ben Clemens

2:39

No idea why he hasn't yet, tbh

just give him a shot!

No service time implications this late in the year, and he's been destroying every level

Joshua

2:39

Trea Turner to the Mariners for Kelenic and JP Crawford......who says no?

Ben Clemens

2:39

I think the Mariners would say no. Turner doesn't make them a playoff team and he's gone after next year, they've also been pretty prospect huggy

Jeremy.Renner

2:40

Jeremy.Renner> matt.damon. How you like them apples?

Steve

2:40

Do you think Patrick Wisdom's performance this year is sustainable?

Ben Clemens

2:40

Well, no

I don't think he's a perennial all star, so no

2:41

I'm ready to buy into him being a totally cromulent regular though

But I don't htink he's gonna keep slugging .568 with a 40% strikeout rate

Steve

2:41

Do you think hes a solid starting 3B?

Ben Clemens

2:42

Yeah, I think that he's totally fine as a starting 3B if you're patching a hole there

Like if your team's strength is elsewhere and you plug in Wisdom at 3rd, I'll be skeptical but understanding

If he's supposed to be part of the solution rather than wallpaper, then no, not buying it

Guest

2:42

Do you think Albert Pujols will continue playing after this year? Seems like he might be enticed by the prospect of reaching 700 homeruns.

Ben Clemens

2:42

I think he will

2:43

He's been good enough with the Dodgers that it's not like he's completely valueless. he hasn't been *good*, but he doesn't look completely cooked

Semi cooked, but not completely

Like an al dente pasta

Cambodian Creamsicle

2:43

Jeremy Renner plays a "superhero" with no super powers. Just unlimited arrows and a stupid haircut. Wack!

Ben Clemens

2:44

Unlimited arrows isn't a superpower?

LFC Mike

2:44

Hi Ben.. on the same night at Fenway last week, Rafael Devers hit his 100th MLB HR. Jarren Duran made his Fenway debut. Jarren Duran is a month older than Devers. Does Raffy get enough credit as to what a special player he is?

Ben Clemens

2:44

Yes, Devers is perpetually underrated

partially it's b/c everytime the Sox have been good they've been jam-packed with superstars

2:45

Partially it's b/c he was bad the year they won the WS, good in

'19 when they weren't really, and then bad in 2020

Derek

2:45

Is Varsho turning a corner? Walk rate up, strikeouts down relative to last year - and obviously 3 games in a row with a home run is good!

Ben Clemens

2:46

I want to believe. The approach at the plate makes me willing to

So, yes!

Greg

2:47

Metrics like wOBA (and to a lesser extent, OPS) are great because they take into account the frequency of all positive batting outcomes and properly assigns weights to them based on their value as it pertains to creating runs in a context agnostic fashion.

My Question is - we know that negative outcomes aren’t created equal, as a fly out or ground out is often more valuable than a strikeout. Why don’t wOBA and other metrics take into account the frequency and value of negative outcomes as well?

Ben Clemens

2:47

Let me pull up a recent Tom Tango thread on this

2:48

Gosh, Tango tweets a lot

Run Values by the 24 base-out states for each event.

This averages over 2016-present. If someone can remind me after the World Series to get this updated, I will do so.

You can download the file here if you want a better resolution:

tangotiger.net/files/re24_eve…

His conclusion:

Notice the run values are more impactful for ground-outs with a runner on 1B and less than 2 outs.

And strikeouts with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs.

And with 2 outs, all the run values on outs are the same.

Despite it all, overall, then end up all being very similar.

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