JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 7/26/21

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Ben Clemens

2:48

Yikes, that is faint text

2:49

K's are a lot worse in some situations

Grounders are REALLY bad with less than two outs (b/c of double plays) when there are runners on

Lunchmeat sculptor

2:49

If the reports regarding the pirates’ past efforts to acquire Marcano (and Preller’s reluctance to discuss him) are true, it seems to suggest a bit of an evaluation shift in favor of elite bat-to-ball skills (perhaps after seeing Frazier, McNeil, Cronenworth, tapia, etc all settle into productive regular roles) might be taking place in FOs? No?

Ben Clemens

2:49

I mean... maybe

2:51

On the other hand, could just be them talking about how they like Marcano b/c that's what they got

Guest

2:51

But we account for GIDP (the bad part of groundouts) separately, with gidp runs

Ben Clemens

2:53

Yeah, so this is a valid point. I'm willing to believe that our GIDP runs are over-penalizing grounders relative to strikeouts (though they're relative to average, obviously)

but then, the biggest wGDP on the whole year is 2.4 runs, so it's a really marginal difference

DMGM

2:53

Who dares criticize the great Dayton. Am I dumb enough to trade Merrifield?

Ben Clemens

2:53

I don't think Merrifield gets traded, but I kind of think he should?

Guest

2:54

Maybe elite bat-to-ball skills are valued as a more consistent commodity due to the properties of the ball changing a bit from year to year?

Ben Clemens

2:54

That seems kinda backwards though. A lot of the elite bat-to-ball guys derive a lot of value from their bat-to-ball turning from doubles into homers

2:55

The true zero-power guys don't, but one reason we bumped up gap power bat control types in our rankings in general is b/c it seemed more likely they'd be hitting homers

Guest

2:55

What’s one thing that is generally still undervalued by most front offices but properly valued by the top tier front offices?

Ben Clemens

2:55

Ooh, this is an excellent question

To be clear, I don't claim to have a perfect view into any front offices

2:56

I think that everyone understands the concept of projecting value, using some type of unitary scale that converts everything into one unit (wins, runs, whatever), and thinking about costs

2:57

I think that some teams are a lot better at understanding the failures of that model, intricacies of maximizing a roster rather than stacking up WAR, etc

The Dodgers are one of my favorite exmaples

2:58

They've been really good at manufacturing good fill-in players, and then if you look at their acquisitions, they try to grab stars these days

I like it!

The Rays are thinking about their 40-man crunch all the time and trying to figure out how to fit pieces together

The Yankees seem to have a really good grasp of how to play the luxury tax; they do a lot of this 2 over 1 under type thing

Appa Yip Yip

2:59

Th answer should be, making sure your minor leaguers don't have to sleep in their cars

Ben Clemens

2:59

Do you think that's properly valued by the top front offices?

I wish it were

But I don't thikn it is

Dan

2:59

Was Altuve considered at all in the trade value series? Was he just punished heavily for 2020? Or is 31 years old with 3 years of team control at $23M for 10-15 wins more just fairly priced value than surplus value?

Ben Clemens

3:00

Not seriously considered

In our initial surplus value estimation cut, he came in slightly below 0 surplus value

For a guy who isn't a perennial 5+ WAR lock, that's tough

Appa Yip Yip

3:00

The amount of money teams piss away by not paying their minor league players enough to only focus on baseball is absurd

It's also just, you know, the right thing to do

Ben Clemens

3:00

Completely agree

Christian

3:01

I think the Royals are the most likely team to trade for Eric Hosmer. Mostly because I think they'll do something stupid like Offer Nick Pratto for Hosmer straight up and then trumpet their success with glee because the Padres accepted instantly while the royals were secretly willing to give up Witt Jr if that's what it took.

Ben Clemens

3:01

I think it's fun to bag on Dayton Moore but this one doesn't seem like something even he would do

Johnny5Alive

3:02

Your article re: the Hill trade made it seem like not a good deal from the mets at all - but its gotta be better than TBA 2/5 games like they have the past month.

Ben Clemens

3:02

Oh I hope that isn't how it came off. They had to make a trade

I think he's cooked

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