JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/22

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Ben Clemens

2:43

quite surprising

2:44

I bet you teams are lining up to offer him a pillow deal for next year, though

Cat Latos

2:44

Do you have cats?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I do not, just a dog who would be very upset if she knew someone was asking about cats

Vinny

2:44

Given McClanahan's recent struggles and youth, do you think the Rays shut him down and save him for a playoff run?

Ben Clemens

2:44

Mmmmmm.... I don't think they will

2:45

His recent bad stretch still comes with a 3.71 FIP over his last four starts, though in fairness it's been against a mixed bag of offenses (BAL, CLE, DET, BAL)

2:46

But they're in a playoff race, he's their best pitcher, that doesn't sound like a time to shut him down

Also he's a Cy Young frontrunner and that'd be messed up

2:46

Given every hitter has an OBP < .500, is every hitter more likely than not to get out in indivdual at bat? For anyone with a >.400 OBP would this BVP dependent at all where you could theoretically ~expect~ him to reach base?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Situationally dependent, too

Like, your odds of reaching base go up quite a bit if first base is open but there are runners in scoring position, assuming you're a great hitter

2:47

there are definitely situations where you'd expect someone to reach base, but they're rare

and are mostly situations where you think the pitching team is going to soft-walk someone or at least be extremely careful with a patient hitter

It has to involve a high likelihood of walking, basically

Some Guy

2:47

The Blue Jays got stolen on a lot on the 14th by the Guardians, with Kirk behind the plate, and it cost them. Does his inability to stop the run game reduce his value as a catcher by much?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I don't think it's clear that he's a bad catcher when it comes to stopping the run game

He has 10 CS already

2:49

He throws runners out at a league-average rate

2:50

per 100 innings behind the dish, teams are attempting an extra two steals against him, basically

so it's just not much of a difference, particularly if you think he's roughly average when it comes to throwing people out

Heck, DRS has him with positive rSB on the season, which surprised me

Baseball fan

2:51

Is Andres Gimenez actually an MVP type of player? 153 WRC+ and can play a gold glove level short stop

Ben Clemens

2:51

I do not think he is, but I think he's quite good

I think it's reasonable to project some power regression, I've been caught with these 'oh this guy who didn't show power before suddenly has it, let's assume it will stay forever' type deals

Dan

2:52

So while wrist injuries are obviously tricky, but do you find the Kirilloff injury dialogue strange? He gets surgery, says it still hurts, MIN tells him it's his new normal and to go to AAA to feel it out, he rakes at AAA, hits well for a short period in MLB upon being recalled, wrist hurts again, team agrees he needs another surgery.

Ben Clemens

2:53

I assume they're getting medical advice somewhere in there. I agree that from the outside it doesn't make much sense to me. I was definitely confused that he kept hitting after saying it hurts though

Smokey's Bandit

2:53

Is Josh Lowe going to get it together? The K rate is scary and it seems like the Rays have maybe given up on him. Thoughts on him long-term?

Ben Clemens

2:54

I'm not a believer, just b/c I think the contact issues are more likely to stick than not. He already has a reasonable approach at the plate and is still striking out all the time. I'd rather take my chances with someone who could maybe improve their approach by just coming up with a different thought, versus a guy who seems to have a solid approach and just can't hit the ball anyway

2:55

It'd be one thing if he hadn't run high strikeout numbers all the way up the minor league ladder, but I think he's just going to be one of those boom-bust power and k's guys, and I'm not sold on him having THAT kind of power

Jacob deGrom

2:55

What deal will I sign as a free agent after I (presumably) opt out? Will I stay with the Mets or go elsewhere?

Ben Clemens

2:55

You've said you plan on remaining with the Mets. Who am I to doubt deGoat?

John Olerud's Helmet

2:55

Im not one of those to blame all the White Sox problems on La Russa but the man needs to be fired simply for continuing to bat Grandal 5th!!

Ben Clemens

2:56

Grandal has really not looked himself so far this year

I worry that he's cooked

2:57

His batted ball metrics are not great. His offensive game makes a lot more sense when he has a solid barrel rate, b/c if pitchers can come after him a bit more, his walk value goes away

Chris Woodward

2:57

I was fired as a scapegoat. I did the best with what I was given.

Ben Clemens

2:57

And?

Managers are scapegoats

That's the job

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