JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/22

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Nic Stone

2:57

If told after 2017 that Aaron Judge would have this type of season, one better than his 2017 one, would you have believed them? I remember lots of people saying that would be his best season ever.

Ben Clemens

2:57

I think it would depend on whether I knew you were a time traveler

2:58

Like, if you just said 'trust me, this is true', I probably wouldn't have believed you

But it wasn't 0% to happen, obviously

I think the odds were good, in 2017, that 2017 would be his best season ever, just b/c it was so out of nowhere

but they absolutely weren't 100%

Sizzle baby!

2:59

Grandal doesn't even swing at pitches anymore. He walks or he strikes out. He's such a boring plate appearance.

Ben Clemens

2:59

Imagine if Juan Soto just never swung

Vaughn Grissom

2:59

Why am I not a top 100 prospect...

Ben Clemens

2:59

Part of a long-term, systematic plan to ever-so-slightly neg Braves prospects as a way of convincing the fan base we hate them

3:00

or more likely because the boundary between 45 and 50 FV is pretty nebulous and trusting a report to be a definitive description of exactly how well every one of thousands of minor leaguers rates when it comes to future production is an inherently impossible task

I think it's the first one, personally

Alby

3:01

And yet Baltimore is clearly a much better team since Rutschman's promotion. How to explain?

Ben Clemens

3:01

all baseball teams get better and worse, all the time

I don't know how to explain it

I certainly don't know how to predict what will happen going forward

I don't need to explain it, though. Explanations are fun, but they're also overrated sometimes

Sometimes it's fun to just watch baseball

squall

3:01

Who do you think wins the AL & NL ROTY races?

Ben Clemens

3:01

Hm.... Harris and Julio

The Real Ben Clemens

3:02

who would you hire to be the Tigers next GM

Ben Clemens

3:02

I'd hire me

Like, not close. If they give me hiring authority I'm picking me

Hit me up, Ilitches, I'm on twitter @_ben_clemens

DM's are open

party

1

odds

3:03

I get why NL teams other than the Dodgers have better odds to win the WS than the LCS because they aren't facing the Dodgers, but I'm not sure I understand why they are almost all over 50% to win the WS? Playoff odds is saying the Mets, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, and Padres are ALL better than their average WS opponent, right?

Ben Clemens

3:04

yeah basically? I'm not sure I believe it, and I think our odds do weird things at the playoff series level for sure, but we think that the Braves, Dodgers, and Mets are the best three teams ROS

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

followed by the Astros, but hten the Padres

Dan

3:04

How much would you pay yourself as a gm? You don't get a golden parachute and you can pick any number that you'll get fired if you're wildly overpayed.

Ben Clemens

3:04

not a ton

Now, I'd want a contract that could be renegotiated after only two years, or a GM opt-out or something

but I'm obviously unproven, and I don't even know where I'd live in Detroit, so that would take a while to figure out

Kevin

3:05

Do you think Castellanos is concealing an injury or has he just totally lost his approach at the plate?

Ben Clemens

3:05

I think it's likely a bit of both, honestly

His recent approach has not been good, but I find it hard to believe he isn't a little hurt

Chilly

3:05

Michael harris is doing crazy stuff at just 21. Aside from roy u think he can be a legit 30/30 threat annually? I'd like ur take on him pls

Ben Clemens

3:06

I'm a little down on the approach; it's really hard to sustain his level of production when your chase rate is that high (44.2%)

3:07

I think he's gonna be a low-obp kinda guy

But that won't necessarily stop him from 30/30. I think a legit threat annually sounds about right, I don't think he's gonna average 30/30 by any means

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