JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/25/25

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Ben Clemens

2:54

just b/c like, seems like a good prior!

which makes this year's performancde track. I think he's a better hitter than he has displayed in 2025, but like, 5-10% above average, not 30%

2:55

I saw him as more 'nice role player on good deal' than top 50 trade value guy, which maybe biased my rankings

but like, right now I don't feel bad about that!

Justin

2:55

Is there a stat that announcers love more than batting average with runners in scoring position

Ben Clemens

2:55

oooh

um, batting average in this series

Ozzie

2:56

Speaking of Lawrence Butler, Mark Vientos seems to be going through a similar year. Heating up lately though. What is your take on him?

Ben Clemens

2:56

oh man, great comp

yeah like, you should not look at Vientos's 2024 and go 'yep, this guy willi be 30% above average offensively)

2:57

I was kinda down on him as a prospect and the reasons for it haven't matierally changed, so I kinda shaded my view down. I've been shaded high on Baty too, so I was looking PRETTY stupid last year for a while. The real answer is liekly somewhere in between, of course

but it's easy to look at 2024 outcomes and get over your skis for guys who massively diverged from their previous established career norms

Guest

2:57

Not strictly batting average but they love to say how many hits a player has against a starter they've faced like three times in five years

Ben Clemens

2:57

oh yeah another great one

3-7 against him, with a homer

2:58

2-8, a walk and four strikeouts

like, no, don't care, let's just keep moving on

Okra

2:58

When the league expands by 2 teams, where do you see the the bigger drop off in talent with the players coming in ... hitters or pitchers?

Ben Clemens

2:58

pitchers

or at least, I'm hoping

i think that teams have too many unhittable pitchers right now

Okra

2:58

Does being a switch hitter really matter? Switch hitters still have a more dominant side and splits. so assuming a static +/- 20 wRC+ vs LHP and RHP for a switch hitter and a non switch hitter ... does it really matter?

Ben Clemens

2:58

the splits tend to be smaller

2:59

also, you can infer that the guys who end up switch hitting might have had EVEN LARGER splits

but yes, in general, I think that people probably overrate the value of switch hitting

few guys are TRUE switch hitters

Bob T

2:59

Re IBB not sure how much things have changed over the last 20 years but in 2024 IBBs were worth about 0.20 runs (uBB tends to hover around 0.32 runs). So they are comparable to a SB in terms of linear weights. Personally, I'm fine with excluding them from context neutral WAR. I can always check RE24 WAR if I want something that's more context sensitive

Ben Clemens

3:00

Yeah, this makes sense to me in general, I also think they're just not a great measure of player talent, and 'replace them with the average talent that player has otherwise displayed' seems like a great compromise to me

Kevin

3:00

When you attend a game in person, to what degree do you watch as an analyst and to what degree do you watch as a fan in other ways? In other words, what makes watching a game in person most enjoyable for you?

Ben Clemens

3:00

Ooh, fun question

I think writing 5 Things has changed this around a bit for me, actually

3:01

because now a good portion of my job is looking for non-statistical things that can be turned into article segments

that little stuff is what I've loved about baseball for a long time, it's why I liked the sport as a kid, so doing 5 things has been a green light for me to focus on whatever little nonsense I want to

I've contacted Giants PR to get the script of a between-innings scoreboard thing they did, that's pretty far from what I used to do in my attendance/analysis

3:02

I like watching for little things, basically. Whether mathematical or otherwise

tortycraig

3:02

batting lines against a certain team lol

Ben Clemens

3:02

another classic!

"He just kills the Mets"

3:02

Do you buy that the Dodgers' WS odds are nearly as high as the 17% on the playoffs odds page right now? For a team that more than likely will not get a bye (by the odds' reckoning), and that might have to win a 3 game series on the road at Wrigley if they don't win the division, that feels like an awfully rosy projection.

Ben Clemens

3:02

Yeah I'm skeptical

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