JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 9/12/22

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Curious George

2:43

Baseball writers talk about it being hard to judge the value that field managers add or detract. What about baseball ops leadership? Given differing dictates from ownership (the details of which the public may or may not know), popular expectations, contention windows, etc., how should we compare and contrast folks like Bloom, Ng, and Moore?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I think it's phenomenally difficult to judge, which probably gives baseball ops groups more job security

The whole 'comparing it to the moves you didn't make' thing is just hard

Brian

2:43

(that was a joke from a frustrated Mets fan that watches Hunter and Givens turn every 1 run game into a 5 run game)

Ben Clemens

2:44

aw man, that's sad

I'd believe Givens, he feels like a trustworthy guy to me and was on the O's

Jay

2:44

Thank you. Would you look at those stats for opposing pitchers also?

Ben Clemens

2:45

Callback to the earlier HR question. I'd honestly look a lot at HR/9 for pitchers, and strikeout rate too. Pitchers have less control over what happens after contact than batters (makes sense, batters are the ones doing the swinging) so the best thing they can do is just strike guys out

Benny Baseball

2:45

Loved your article on hard hit rate and had me thinking about Benny... Does he get rewarded for what should have been a 3.5 WAR season or do teams discount given the high BABIP and low hard hit rate? Seems like he'll be a tricky one to evaluate

Ben Clemens

2:47

Yeah, I'm glad I am not trying to figure out which free agent outfielder to target this offseason. I think I buy maybe half of his production on contact? His hard-hit rate isn't that low in the context of Andrew Benintendi, he's always been a gap-to-gap type, and I could see him hitting more homers next year out of Kaufman for a full season

2:48

Another good sign: his plate discipline took a step forward this year and that tends to be stalb

stable*

2:49

I'd be generally interested in him if people are picturing him as an average player, b/c I think there's upside. If he's making All Star money then you start limiting how great the deal can go for you as a team

Didace

2:49

"the best thing they can do is just strike guys out" Explain Josiah Gray. Then please let the Nats know what the issue is. Thank you in advance.

Ben Clemens

2:50

Well, Josiah Gray doesn't actually strike THAT many guys out (per batter faced). He strikes a ton out b/c he walks a ton and gives up a ton of hard aerial contact and hence homers. I'm not saying that rule is the only rule that matters... but for a one-line rule, "focus on K% and HR/9" is a good one

Jeff S.

2:50

Who do you think has the better career. Strider or Kirby? Strider has the better stuff but Kirby has the better command I think.

Ben Clemens

2:50

I have to take Strider here, though I really do enjoy watching Kirby pitch

2:51

Strider's stuff is obviously elite, but so is his work ethic and ability to improve. He's completely changed his pitch mix since college and that's very impressive to me. I dunno how to quantify this but I'd expect him to continue changing and improving

The guy who asks the lunch question

2:52

What's for lunch?

Ben Clemens

2:53

Leftovers of some chinese food we ordered last night plus rice. It's not a fancy meal but we had a busy Sunday and didn't feel like cooking. Tonight's dinner should be fun though: pasta and broccoli pesto

2:54

Why so long between DeGrom’s starts?

Ben Clemens

2:54

I think the Mets are just being cautious, as well as keeping their pitchers 'in order'

2:55

Bassitt and deGrom both pitched last Wednesday in a doubleheader, Bassitt first. So it's not crazy to have Bassitt go today and dG tomorrow

Dubs In 6

2:55

Do you expect much from Flaherty and Jon Gray ROS - enough to roster?

Ben Clemens

2:55

Mmmmm.... no but if you're desperate yes

Service Time Impingement Syndrome

2:55

Saw the earlier question about Luis Robert. Here's mine: Is it time to think this is what he is? Talented hitter, but forever unable to stay in the lineup long enough to really enjoy a true breakout?

Ben Clemens

2:56

Definitely a worry with him. There's a bit of a Byron Buxton vibe: feels like if he ever puts together a healthy season where everything clicks he'll be an MVP candidate, but whether he does it is tough to handicap

Guest

2:56

What's the most WAR someone has earned in a single week? An intelligent guess is fine if it's not easy to look up.

Ben Clemens

2:56

Gonna go with a guess b/c we don't do defensive value game-by-game, it's kinda batched and uploaded

2:57

Here is a fun article by Sam Miller about Trout's day-to-day WAR during a hot streak

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19338735/death-taxes-mike-trout-wa...

Derek

2:58

Isn't the most WAR in a week almost certainly from Ohtani at some point?

Ben Clemens

2:58

That's a good point. Ohtani always goofs these things up

It's probably some week where he had two good starts, yeah

john maynor

2:58

I know the Guardians are the weakest team overall currently in a spot, but I wouldn’t much want to have to win 2/3 on the road vs Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill + the bullpen. Or if CHW comes back, Cease/Lynn/Cueto

Ben Clemens

2:58

Well sure. Would you want to try to win 2/3 on the road against Gausman, Manoah, and the Jays lineup?

2:59

or the Rays' many-headed bullpen hydra plus recuperating hitting?

It's not like any of these teams suck

i read fangraphs

2:59

What do you think of the jWAR methodology where it differs from fWAR, bWAR, or WARP? Better/Worse/Inconsequential?

Ben Clemens

2:59

Haven't read that much about it yet tbh, but this is a good excuse to go figure it out