JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

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Ben Clemens

2:46

I get that they need to do something to keep work fun

I do a lot of goofy stuff to keep work fun

2:47

but eh, it's not really for us, I'd say

they're probably for the players. I just kind of ignore them unless they're very funny

OsAreFun

2:47

Do you think that there should be more than 5 categories for prospects. Ex. eye for balls and strikes, contact skills, clutch

Ben Clemens

2:47

I don't really think 'clutch' is a very good one just based on our persistent inability to predict it higher than a tiny, infinitessimal edge

2:48

but yes, Eric sometimes breaks out hit tool between approach and bat-to-ball, and that's how I think of it too

Dirt

2:48

Health/Availability should be considered a tool

Ben Clemens

2:48

I think that a)it is b)it's very hard to measure

Jazz

2:48

Not to get you canceled but do you agree if Jazz, um, looked different, his outspoken nature would be seen as hustle grit real baseball etc etc?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I mean, obviously?

Carl

2:49

What are writers/analysts/pundits/bloggers etc missing with the Brewers? As in every year they are predicted to do a lot worse than they are. Followed by the same people who predicted that, writing about how we shouldn't be surprised they do well and stop underestimating them. Followed by predicting them to do badly again the next year, writing the same articles etc.

Like this is not meant to be about baseball journalism really, more about what it is about the way they build their teams that is hard to value properly. Is it about defense? Depth? (Bench, and 40-man churn) Pitcher usage? Platooning? All these combined? Something else entirely?

Ben Clemens

2:49

I finally ended a very profitable run of taking the over on the Brewers' season win totals every year

b/c they were consistently in the 70s while the Brewers kept winning hte NLC

I think that the hardest thing for projections (ours included) is that the Brewers consistently rank among the league leaders in defensive value and baserunning value

2:50

our projection systems regress both pretty hard

2:51

but like, in the past 5 years, the Brewers have a 100 wRC+ and a 96 FIP-

in other words, their hitting at the plate and k/bb/HR pitching on the mound are pretty close to average

but they're third in baserunning value and first in defensive value

and thus, third overall in wins

2:52

our projections, which are heavily based on the 'stable' skills like wRC+ and FIP, see that the Brewers are very average

and we just over-regress the otehr stuff

it's a tough problem, basically

2:52

Kinda nitpicking a pointless argument here, but is there any real reason to view the Guardians as better than the Reds in terms of the "worst playoff team" question? Reds lead in hitter WAR, pitcher WAR, and have a better RD by over 40 runs (and, I'd argue, specifically a better postseason calling card in their pitching staff). Guards have the better record, obviously, but not sure they're *better*

Ben Clemens

2:52

not at all. I jsut picked one

Lars

2:52

Do umpires call more borderline pitches strikes in certain counts? Seems like it happens way more at 3-0 - especially when the batter starts to head to first before the call - but might just be a narrative I’ve built.

Ben Clemens

2:53

totally true, and it's included in our framing models

your odds of having a particular pitch called a strike are adjusted by count so that hte catcher isn't given excessive skill for 'framing' a bunch of 3-0 pitches that ujmpires are just rubber stamping

2:53

There would be no funnier outcome than the Cubs sweeping the Mets after getting swept by the Reds. Maybe we can re-ignite the Cubs-Mets rivalry of yore.

Ben Clemens

2:54

separately, right now, my Mets fan friend said he wasn't sure whether this would be funnier, or sweeping the cubs and then getting wrecked by the Marlins would be funnier

I'm honestly not sure which would be more amusing as a neutral fan

Hank

2:54

On the "get on base" celebration issues, I can certainly take or leave them -- but I will say my 10-year old loves them and probably has 1/2 the teams' memorized. So, there is an audience out there (even if it's not the player's intention).

Ben Clemens

2:55

wow, that's hard to memorize all those, I'm impressed

yeah, I don't think they detract from the game for me at all, and it sounds like in some ways they add to it, so great

John

2:55

It feels wild that the Mariners bullpen has gone on this run in September when I assumed that would be their undoing at the deadline. How legit is that or is it more just the normal variance of bullpen performance?

Ben Clemens

2:55

probably more the second

but like.... the second is a really strong force

Disgruntled Mets Fan

2:56

Among all the teams with collapses at some point this season (think especially Braves, Orioles, Mets, Tigers) which ones are indicative of significant holes that had been overlooked and will likely be relevant in 2026 and which ones are just rotten luck? Feels like with the Mets specifically it's hard to directly act on the collapse outside of just addressing CF (maybe Trent Grisham, but even there Jett Williams and Carson Benge both look to potentially fit there long term)

Ben Clemens

2:56

I think that the Mets and O's look a lot like what I thought might happen to those teams - I think the Mets collapse is more about pitching than CF, really

2:57

like it's nice that the rookies have done alright but the guys they thought would be good being quite bad, and the bullpen having holes, have both been really meaningful

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