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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10-16-2018
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Brad Johnson
4:32
He needs to ditch the sinker entirely
It's garbage
Same with the cutter
4:33
Then I think he could get away with commanding the upper edge of the zone with his 4 seamer mixed with a over 50% offspeed stuff
That would be my advice to him
The Pirates generally don't lead pitchers in this direction.
4:34
They didn't with Glasnow for gods know what reason
So I think we could be in for some rocky seasons
That said, I like Kingham as a growth asset in deep formats
Walt
4:35
Re: Ottoneu Keepers.

Division of $400 between keepers and draft depends heavily on the age of the league. For a league entering its first off-season, very few elite players are likely to be available. The chance of finding value in the draft is very difficult. So I'd ere on the side of keeping as many of the star players, while ditching most $3-5 players (unless they were diamonds in the rough). Obviously, there is no reason to spend $3 on a $1 player but a lot of people overpay for certainty to keep guys who were bargains last year.

I agree entirely that linear valuation models don't work in Ottoneu because of the IP/GS caps. That is, elite performance is worth a significant premium whereas its critical to not overpay for fungible talent.
A Random Dude
4:35
Do I keep or trade away Ohtani, knowing he's not pitching until 2020? He's at $32 currently and I have Chapman/Vlad who could take the Util slot if I want. Pitching = risk, so I'm leaning towards moving.
Brad Johnson
4:35
I would trade him at this price
4:36
So much that can go wrong. He's maybe a $15 hitter so you're taking a huge loss next season just to try the experiment a second time in 2020
Erik Guy
4:36
12 team standard keeper, have Altuve and Mondesi at 2B.
Lost league due to lack of HR and RP last year, worth trying to trade Altuve to try and go for a JDM or Judge type, or is the loss of OBP and AVG too hard to take? Are you worried about Altuve's HR and Steals going forward?
Brad Johnson
4:37
I've heard from a couple secondary sources, including Eno, that Altuve has a meniscus injury.
It's probably not very serious. But if you don't see him get some sort of arthroscopy over the offseason, you should assume another light SB year
So yes, I would trade Altuve for a big power source under the right circumstances.
4:38
Not enough info to say definitely do it though
I'm inclined to "rehab" my Altuve shares personally
Mike
4:38
Could Jacob Nottingham be worthwhile in fantasy? Or will it even be in a couple years, as catchers seem to take more time to mature?
Brad Johnson
4:39
I see a highly flawed hitter who has trouble barreling the baseball
Not sure he's a major leaguer at this point
He has the raw components of a slugging catcher with a friendly home park if something clicks.
BAMF
4:40
Danny Jansen.  12 teams, 2 C per team.  He a must own in this format for next year?
Brad Johnson
4:40
Yes, I think so
But farther towards the back end than you'd think
4:41
Like Luis Urias, he's a perfect $1 or $2 flier, but if the bidding goes higher, let somebody make the bet
Chances are, you'll get a chance at them on FAAB
A Random Dude
4:41
Harper, Altuve, Kershaw all cut pre-arb
Brad Johnson
4:41
Pre-arb cuts...
They should read the Ottoneu Arbitration Omnibus
A Random Dude
4:42
Was toying with cutting Trout (assuming I cut down heavily on $3+ guys) and resigning for possibly less than keeper cost
Brad Johnson
4:42
It's an interesting gamble, one I usually avoid
DJ Tanner
4:43
I've never done an Ottoneu league, but looking for more in the fantasy community. Every time I try to read on it, seems very confusing and daunting. Convince me, your QO millionaire idea partner, to join Ottoneu.
Brad Johnson
4:43
For one, community is front and center
Although there are a lot of technical details, they actually aren't all that complicated
That is, you can make them as complicated as you'd like
4:46
For example, when I assign arbitration dollars, I'm using trade negotiations to convince owners to allocate less to certain of my guys I secretly want to keep. I'll signal untouchables so they draw fire. And I focus on allocating to players who will remain kept for many years. I also always max allocate to the owners I consider the best, regardless of how they performed in the most recent season or the current state of their roster
But you could just look at each team and just pick some shiny allocations in 5 minutes
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