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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10-2-2018
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Brad Johnson
4:31
The scenarios I could see happening are:
1. Keuchel accepts a QO
4:32
2. Keuchel can't find a job and re-signs for 1-year, $10MM or so
Rollie's Mustache
4:32
12 team 6-keeper points league. Bellinger over Mejia is obvious, right? Catcher is such a thin position though.
Brad Johnson
4:32
Yea, can't go Mejia over Bellinger
No assurance Mejia will hit in the majors, nor do we know if he'll play more than 50%
Wildtsunami
4:32
Thank you
Slurve
4:32
R Lopez, Newcomb, Weaver going forward?  Who has the better 2019?  Career?   Thanks!
Brad Johnson
4:33
Same asset class, albeit with differing distributions of probable outputs. I'll say Newcomb has the year and Lopez has the career. They're all three volatile with healthy upsides and unplayable downsides
Josh
4:33
Would you trade Suarez and Soto for Lindor in a dynasty?
Brad Johnson
4:34
Oh, I don't think so. I'd need more info
Joe
4:35
Hype train is leaving the station on Buehler. Any reason we should temper expectations?
Brad Johnson
4:35
You're late if you're trying to jump on now
There are always reasons to worry about pitchers
4:36
However, Buehler is a LOT better than Luis Castillo circa the 2017-18 offseason
So I'm less inclined to make him the subject of the annual "y'all are ignoring all the downside" article
4:37
The most recent version of that article aged well. From a real world perspective, Castillo was exactly as good as the Reds could have expected. From a fantasy perspective, he crushed his owners - both from a value sense and on the stat sheet
King Buzzo
4:37
Re: David Dahl - What's your expectation next year?  Does he finally hold down a full time role?
Brad Johnson
4:38
Seems like he'll be given that chance. I assume CarGo finally wanders into the sunset.
His dead cat bounce wasn't very high
I don't really foresee a second one
Ya know, some times the cat bounces twice, like in nanaca crash
The key to nanaca crash, btw, is a low launch angle
in this way it is opposite to hitting home runs
4:40
And yes, I'm playing a round now
Jordan
4:40
Is this off-season a good time to sell Archer? Or do I hope he bounces back with full season in NL...
Brad Johnson
4:40
I think you missed the sell by window
It was mid-2017
4:41
At this point, hope for a rebound. He's a smart pitcher, it's possible
CubFan
4:41
Piggybacking on my earlier question. 12 team AL only 5x5 H2H keeper league with $260 team salary. Use W+QS and OBP. Can keep 8. League inflation for #1 and #2 SPs runs 25-35%. Would you protect Happ $12 (if he stays in the AL on a good team), Glasnow $4 and/or McCullers $2? Planning on keeping Didi at $14, Laureano $1, Cozart $3, Trenien $6, Eduardo Escobar $1 (if in AL) and one of Voit $3 or Stanton $44. Stanton because elite hitters also see 35%+ inflation.
Brad Johnson
4:42
Stanton seems like a must-keep to me at that price. I don't think Cozart and Escobar should be treated as locks.
Glasnow and McCullers are great values
DJ Tanner
4:42
How much of fantasy advice from experts is strictly based on numbers vs. gut instinct? I feel like I've always been more of a gut guy (of course using numbers too) but it seems like most experts are very numbers only oriented.
Brad Johnson
4:43
It obviously varies by analyst
I try to incorporate as much scouting as I can into my work
Because relying solely on stats often leads to clumping with others
4:44
I'm a big proponent of zigging when others zag. It's a hugely winning strategy. Even if the zaggers are right, they're tripping over themselves for the same scarce resources. I'm almost guaranteed to find value.
M's Fan
4:45
I have Tyler White, Ji-Man Choi, and Luke Voit . do you think all 3 will receive consistent PT and will be productive next season?
Brad Johnson
4:45
White I think is likely to play a lot
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