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Cardinals vs. Nationals NLCS Game 1 Chat
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Ben Clemens
8:29
And around 50 if you prefer UZR.
KC
8:30
Taylor is a good player- speed, some defense and power. Why aren't more people talking about him? He's rather streaky perhaps.
Ben Kaspick
8:31
He definitely has some tools, but has been ~ 20% below average offensively in his career.
Mo money, Molina
8:31
Cause his name is Michael K Taylor...
Ben Kaspick
8:32
A .294 OBP, 30%+ K rate just doesn't cut it.
Ben Clemens
8:32
Ah, it wouldn't be the postseason without the announcers getting in a little gratuitous shift-bashing.
"They play straight up to make you beat them."
That's true, when teams shift it's because they want to let teams win automatically without having to beat them.
Dystopian Future
8:33
Taylor has good speed, good defense, good power, and he swings like he's blindfolded.
Ben Clemens
8:33
Ron Darling says Michael A. Taylor has a strikeout problem but "sick power" when he makes contact and yeah.
Lunar verLander
8:33
There's been a lot of evidence suggesting that MLB de-juiced the balls at the start of the postseason...that seems almost cruel to do, right?
Ben Clemens
8:34
In Play, Gome(s)
Going to link outside of FG here, because this is a great article:
8:35
Yeah, the change in the baseball is hard to deny. I was skeptical based on the actual fly ball results, but Rob measured it in a far more precise way and found an obvious change.
8:36
It's quite frankly shocking that they'd do this. It's almost unbelievable that they'd do it on purpose, but also hard to imagine how they could do it on accident.
Ben Kaspick
8:36
I think it's worse than cruel, and yeah, the changes are hard to deny.
Sonny
8:36
They changed the ball for the 207 playoffs just in the opposite direction
Ben Clemens
8:36
Yeah so you can see in this article, the change in drag coefficient is higher this year by roughly an order of magnitude.
8:37
Like it has just changed sooooooooo much.
Mad Joe-Don
8:37
Maybe it's the chaos-lover in me, but I want to see a wider variety of baseballs out there. Some factory irregulars, even?
Ben Clemens
8:38
I'm picturing the feeling you get from a dead tennis ball.
Smash the thing straight on, bloop single.
Ben Kaspick
8:38
That ground ball that came apart on its way to Pedro Alvarez is one of my favorite highlights.
Mantis Toboggan
8:38
So Fangraphs currently has the Cardinals with a 6.5% chance of winning the world series. That has to be some sort of glitch, right? With a 34% chance of winning the NLCS, that means Fangraphs gives implied odds of like 17% for the Cardinals to beat the AL team, should they make it.
Ben Clemens
8:40
I'm going to ask someone about this, actually. There's some chance it's a goof, but there's also some chance that the way we forecast these things produces weird effects when teams of widely disparate talent levels play seven-game series.
For example, that system has the Cardinals as 34% to win the NLCS but Dan's projections have them at 45.5%.
Derek
8:41
DE-JUICED BALL ALERT
Dystopian Future
8:41
Marcell Ozuna in play, ru-what the hell
They should just throw some footballs in there, mostly because I'd like to see Aaron Judge hit a football with a baseball bat. What would happen? What's the best place to hit a football with a baseball bat? So many questions.
Ben Kaspick
8:42
I just have to say...Pete Alonso was recently on a late night TV show and there is super slow mo footage of him hitting all sorts of fun things, including a football.
Sonny
8:42
Crossing up with no one base. Classic October baseball.
Ben Clemens
8:42
I would 100% use multiple signs against the Astros.
8:43
I'm not sure I would against most teams.
5 Run Homer
8:43
Bunting is hard
Ben Clemens
8:43
Matt Carpenter is a great bunter - he's perennially one of the most successful players at bunting against the shift.
It's just, like you said, hard!
Sonny
8:44
That’s a legit problem. If cameras are that prevalent MLB needs to do whatever to fix that.
Ben Clemens
8:44
Yeah so, I don't have the link offhand, but an Astros staffer was caught during a Red Sox-Astros playoff series filming a series of catcher signs
Using a phone with a built-in high speed camera and machine learning app.
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