JotCast | Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/28/25

Chat with MLBTR's Steve Adams: 1/28/25

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Dale

1:56

I've seen a couple of mentions of this proposed trade around today....Michael King to the Cubs with a return of Javier Assad, Kevin Alcantara, lower prospect. Seems a fair basis for a trade, but it's a lot to give up for 1 year of control. Who says no on this?

Steve Adams

1:58

I wouldn't give that much up, and I also think people are running wild with Michael King since his name hasn't been out there much this offseason.

Of course the Padres have listened on him. They have little to no money to spend, and AJ Preller is the most-active or second- or third-most active baseball ops head in the sport. He's going to listen on impending free agents most years. He traded Juan Soto last offseason.

So of course King's name is going to come up, but that hardly means they're shopping him. He's probably been discussed for every bit as long as Cease and Arraez have.

I think the Padres will eventually move someone, but there's no indication King is any likelier than any of the rest of their short-term players. They'll see what best positions them between money saved and young talent received.

Lid

1:59

Do the Cubs have the funds (to avoid luxury tax) to add a veteran infielder AND a quality relief pitcher?

Steve Adams

1:59

Sure, they're like $35MM or so from the first tax threshold

Jerry R.

1:59

Michael King for Luis Robert, who says no?

Steve Adams

1:59

Padres. Easily

2:00

Robert would ADD money to their payroll, and if they're moving King, they need young controllable talent that's not high-priced like Robert is.

Plus, it doesn't work for the White Sox. If you're moving Robert, you don't want a one-year SP rental in a season where he might take you from losing 105 games to losing 101 games.

Medium Sized Mike

2:00

Do you view Marco Luciano as a trade candidate for the Giants? Seems like Adames acquisition makes it tougher for him to find a position

Steve Adams

2:01

Yeah I can see Luciano or several of the former regime's (and the prior regime before that!) prospects being shipped out. Luciano doesn't really fit as well long-term now unless he's a utility guy or unless Tyler Fitzgerald bombs at 2B this season, which I don't expect (though I do expect some regression)

Pirates Fan

2:01

Please tell me the Pirates will do something else before spring training?

Steve Adams

2:02

If by "something else" you mean like ... sign Alex Verdugo or David Peralta, sure

I don't think they'll do anything all that exciting.

Tigers

2:02

It was reported this morning that the tigers want to sign a high leverage reliever, but are waiting on the Bregman market. What does one market have to do with the other? You need both and you’re not increasing your offer to Bregman at this point. It seems like poor decision making that could leave us with neither. Is there a logical reason to this other than just money?

Steve Adams

2:04

That was reported long before this morning -- sometime last week or so. They're related in the sense that the front office probably doesn't have an unlimited budget from ownership. If Chris Ilitch set a hard $135-140MM cap for the payroll, with the Tigers currently at around $111MM, then Bregman's outcome matters greatly. Signing him puts them up near the upper threshold of that budget. If he signs elsewhere, they can pivot to a top-end reliever who'll command an eight-figure salary -- maybe add two bullpen arms, even.

That 135-140 number is just a hypothetical example, by the eay

I don't know what the Tigers' budget is, but it's not surprising -- especially this late into the offseason -- that they may not have the budget for a $25MM+ player and another $10MM+ player.

Brandon

2:05

Why do fans seem to view a salary cap as some competitive balance miracle cure? The NFL has perhaps the harshest cap and the Chiefs have now made 5 of the last 6 super bowls (and the Patriots went to 3 straight prior to that).

Steve Adams

2:08

I think they just want to feel like their teams have a chance in free agency, which is understandable but also probably misguided; a salary cap/floor isn't going to make the Pirates and Guardians start signing guys to five-year, $80MM free agent deals or six-year, $150MM deals. They're still going to operate on the bottom end of the spending curve but maybe fill up some of that salary-floor quota by bailing out a team that'll actually spend. If a CLE/TB/PIT etc. team needs to hit the floor, they're likelier to just take on half the Yankees' remaining money to DJ LeMahieu or the Blue Jays' money to Springer or Mets/Starling Marte than they are to sign a big-name free agent for 4-6 years.

Plus the cap-circumventing transactions and contract structures might make the Ohtani deferral setup look like child's play.

2:09

It's also all just so influenced by recency bias. The Mets took the Dodgers to six games in the NLCS. If they'd won, people would be lamenting the Dodgers' spending, yes, but they'd also be chiding them saying "lol no matter how hard you try, you can't buy a World Series that'll make up for Friedman and Roberts"

I think in a couple years there'll be another topic that's causing collective rage.

Remember when people used to get so frustrated and flabbergasted by opt-outs? Now they're just the norm and no one blinks

Stros

2:10

Sign Bregman. Trade Parades to Min for Emmanuel Rodriguez.

Steve Adams

2:10

Twins don't make that deal, but I agree that the notion of signing Bregman and trading Paredes probably isn't kicked around enough

Though I'd love to see Paredes hitting in Houston, as the park feels like it was custom made for his swing

Kave Dingman

2:11

After getting non-tendered, what does the Kyle Finnegan market look like now in late January?

Steve Adams

2:12

I think he'll probably get like $6-7MM with the chance to earn up to and maybe a little bit beyond his projected arb number via incentives.

Johnny U

2:12

I like the Reds signing Hays today granted he passes his physical, but with that said any chance they add another hitter like Grichuk?

Steve Adams

2:12

Hays is a great fit there. Really like that signing for them.

I think he and Grichuk are similar enough that it was probably a one-or-the-other scenario though

Dave

2:13

Still frustrated by opt outs here.

Steve Adams

2:13

Club options have been around longer, and they're the same thing from the team side.

Buddy Holly

2:14

Why aren't the Red Sox spending money this offseason? You'd think with their young core they'd want to bring a strong right handed bat, like Bregman.

Steve Adams

2:14

They've spent $52MM in free agency and traded for Garrett Crochet. I get that they haven't signed a marquee free agent to a long-term deal, and I don't love the overall look of their transactions as a whole, but I don't think it's accurate to say they haven't spent

Mariners

2:15

Julio has down year... Garver has a WAY down year... Polanco has a down year... JP... Ty France... Haniger... And they finish 1 game out of the WC... Is this team ACTUALLY "good enough" as is?

Steve Adams

2:15

You could argue there's immense rebound potential on the hitting side, sure. But they're also unlikely to replicate the health they got from the rotation last year.

Bluebird

2:15

Blue Jaus should sign Cal Quantril. Local boy who did well with Cleveland.

Steve Adams

2:16

I put them down for Kyle Gibson back in November simply because I think they need innings. Quantrill is similar enough, sure. I think they could just use more rotation depth in general. I don't love Quantrill or Gibson, but you're only asking for a fifth starter/innings eater performance out of either, really.

Jesse Chavez

2:16

Do you already have a "Jesse Chavez traded to the Braves" article template created for when he's flipped in June or July?

Steve Adams

2:17

You think it's going to take THAT long?! I figure he opts out mid-March and is in Atlanta's Opening Day 'pe

'pen

Bucco71

2:17

Gil more on pace for ace status or regression?

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