JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 27

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 27

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Mike

1:35

Do you think Coastal Carolina could be a host this year?

Kendall Rogers

1:35

It's still very early -- but don't see why it can't get into the mix with an RPI of 30 right now. A long long way to go -- but very impressive to see what Derek Bender, Peyton Eeles and others are doing at the plate. They look like the real deal. I'm sure Fitt will see Coastal at some point soon.

James

1:42

Is the socon a one bid league?

Kendall Rogers

1:42

I suppose if the conference tournament was today and Wofford didn't win it, it could get in. But hell, if the Terriers didn't get in last season, I don't think they're getting in this year, either, without winning the conference tournament.

CHANDLER

1:42

HOW DO YOU LIKE NEBRASKA'S CHANCES, OFFENSE IS PRETTY STOUT AND THEY HAVE A GREAT 1-2 FRIDAY/SATURDAY COMBO BUT NEED TO FIGURE OUT THE SUNDAY STARTER ISSUE

Aaron Fitt

1:42

Yeah, I feel like Nebraska is coming on strong, really like the way they've played over the last five weeks since that rough first weekend. Agree with you about that offense, it does feel formidable; obviously you've got some real star power with Max Anderson and Brice Matthews leading the way, and then plenty of depth. Feels like a team that will be in the at-large mix.

Gamecock Fan

1:44

I would still say South Carolina, in the words of Fittsy, “has not really played anyone yet” however would you all agree that South Carolina is winning games in a fashion that you would expect really good teams to win against that level of competition?

Aaron Fitt

1:44

At this point, the Gamecocks have handled a couple of solid SEC clubs in Georgia and Missouri -- still not elite competition, but those are two really good weekends, and there's a reason Missouri was ranked in the Top 25, they had earned it through their play. So I do really like South Carolina's body of work, especially the way they've dominated. You have to feel very encouraged about where this team is sitting right now, with the meat of its SEC schedule really starting up in two weeks with LSU and then at Vandy.

Give ‘Em Hell Devils

1:44

I love me some Sun Devil Baseball but even in my wildest dreams I didn’t see us being on top of the PAC 12 Standings 3 weekends into conference play. Our Offense is tops in the PAC I believe, if not right at the top. Seems like if we can even get a shred of consistent pitching like we did this past week, we can make some noise. What are your guys thoughts on the Devils? Forks Up😈🔱

Kendall Rogers

1:44

They are definitely looking pretty good offensively, especially in clutch situations, right now. The thing about ASU is I actually feel like the rotation has some serious upside. Khristian Curtis is an ultra-talented arm for instance. I'm not sure if ASU is some Omaha team right now, but it is clearly much better than it was last season. That's major progress.

Blackburn

1:45

If DBU gets their bats figured out to some extent, and it’s hard not to believe they will with Heefner’s track record, is DBU the sleeper mid major no one notices until it’s too late and they’ve won a regional? Their pitching seems to have taken a step.

Aaron Fitt

1:45

Spot-on, Blackburn. I saw DBU on Friday in Charlotte, and obviously Ryan Johnson is the real deal, and Heef was clearly very very excited about his bullpen, which he compared to his 2015 bullpen. I think pitching is clearly the strength of this staff, and I think they have the arms to make serious noise in the postseason. There isn't as much star power in the lineup, but they play very good team offense and run the bases aggressively under Cliff Pennington's system. I like that formula -- pitch it well and push the action on offense.

Daniel

1:45

When should fans start looking into RPI? Is it accurate to use at this point?

Kendall Rogers

1:45

I still think you need another two or three weeks (some conference games) to really start diving into RPI, but it's certainly more accurate now than it was, say, two weeks ago. If you're a mid-major in the 50s-60s-70s-80s right now, you're probably in some trouble the rest of the season.

TWBHogs

1:46

Disappointing Saturday for the Hogs down in Baton Rouge. Does Saturday bring back to light the pitching concerns the Hogs have or is LSU’s offense just that elite?

Kendall Rogers

1:46

I honestly still feel pretty good about Arkansas. I just feel like LSU's offense is like a freight train when it gets rolling. That's kind of what happened in that second game of the doubleheader. Well ... that and one Tommy Tanks.

Eric Simmons

1:48

Can Florida Gulf Coast host a Regional if they dominate the Atlantic Sun?.

Kendall Rogers

1:48

Eric -- probably not happening. FGCU has an RPI of 49, and I don't know if it will do enough the reset of the year to get into that 16-20 range. We will see, though. A long way to go.

acting likebeentherebefore@aol.com

1:48

Will D1 baseball promote maybe the biggest mid week game this week (ODU v. UVA) (see 2021 regional recent history, what each team did this weekend, etc.) as the Battle for Stephen Schoch after his highly controversial twitter post wearing a Monarchs jersey?

Aaron Fitt

1:48

I love seeing Schoch in the cauldron, stirring up trouble! That is definitely a fun midweek matchup -- an opportunity for ODU to finally prove itself against some high-end competition. This will be ODU's first game against a top 50 opponent. There's no question the Monarchs can swing the bats, but this will be a nice little litmus test.

Hawkeye

1:50

Happy to see Iowa back in the Top 25. As we enter conference play, our RPI is starting to worry me. Using the Needs Report, winning out is the only way to finish Top 16 in RPI. Do the Hawkeyes have any chance at hosting a regional with what will likely be a poor RPI?

Aaron Fitt

1:50

Probably a little too early to lean too heavily on the Needs Report and the RPI in general, but you're right that Iowa faces an uphill battle to put itself in regional hosting position. I do think if the Hawkeyes can win the Big Ten convincingly, coupled with their nice nonconference record, they could wind up in the hosting mix even without a top 16 RPI. Occasionally you'll see a Big Ten team get in that mix in the 20s, say. Could be the path.

SEC17

1:50

Which team is more likely to turn things around and win the SEC? UGA, TAMU, OMiss, MissSt. I think the answer has to be TAMU but their pitching is not good at all. Of course, they looked equally bad last year at this point and then torched the rest of the conference

Kendall Rogers

1:50

I don't think any of those teams are winning the SEC this year .... but in terms of teams I feel like have the chance to turn things around, I would probably say A&M just because I think it is finally hitting better and the pitching 'should' be a lot better than it is right now. Ole Miss would be the pick if Hunter Elliott comes back, but I'm not so sure I'm expecting that right now.

Pack9 John

1:53

Is it time to panic if you’re an NC State baseball fan? 3-6 in the ACC, zero weekend series wins against regional caliber teams, and a puzzling usage of Sam Highfill. With Louisville and Wake coming up this could get ugly before an easier second half ACC slate sans at Carolina.

Aaron Fitt

1:53

Six weeks in, there are a few teams I'd be OK pushing the panic button on -- Florida State and Mississippi State look like they could be in real trouble, for instance. But I'm still not ready to reach for that button with the Wolfpack. Not a great start to conference play, and you're right, the going doesn't get any easier, but they're not in such a deep hole that they can't dig out. It's helpful that at least they haven't gotten swept, and their first three weekends have been tough, with road series at Miami and BC plus that home set against Virginia. I still believe NC State is talented enough to make a real run. Wouldn't surprise me to see them go 4-2 over the next two weekends, but even 3-3 would be fine, because then the schedule eases up with home series vs FSU and Clemson. As of right now, I still believe the Wolfpack will be a regional team. But I understand your anxiety.

Optimistic Frog

1:54

Obviously competition was inferior this week, but it was nice to see the bats get going again in FTW. Do you think that when the Frogs are “right” they are the most talented team in the conference? Excited to see what the offense is capable of when Taylor gets going.

Aaron Fitt

1:54

I feel like TCU, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are the three most talented teams, in no particular order. Feels like everybody in that league has had ups and downs, and they might just continue all year, but ultimately I think those three will separate from the pack. But you're right that TCU is a different team when Brayden Taylor is doing Brayden Taylor things. That offense is definitely scary when it's right.

Ryan

1:54

With Texas sweeping Tech and OSU sweeping Baylor and both being atop the Big 12 standings. How important is this weekend between Texas and OSU for the Big 12 race. And who do you see has an advantage.

Kendall Rogers

1:54

Ryan -- it's certainly important. I have a sneaking suspicion Oklahoma State plays really well and wins this series in comfortable fashion. I just think they're really tough to beat at home, where as Texas has won almost all of its games the past few weeks at home. Those two parks play vastly different. OSU is the closest team to 'elite' in the Big 12 for now.

Jeramey

1:57

As of now, what are the chances Campbell hosts a regional? I know Ga Southern hosted one last year and the committee does like to give schools that normally don't host a chance to host, if they are deemed deserving.

Kendall Rogers

1:57

Jeramy -- It's still very early but the Camels have an RPI of 11 and made a point to play a challenging non-conference schedule. If the RPI holds in the 15-25 range and they dominate the conference in league play, I think they'd be in pretty good shape. I would have to think the regional advisory committee would love Justin Haire's club. They'll also have a lofty top 25 ranking by that point (you'd think).

Spencer

1:57

With some early struggles for the Terps is this weekend's series against Iowa a must win for their tournament hopes? They've got some bad losses (Albany, Hawaii) up to this point and only one (UCF) solid series win.

Aaron Fitt

1:57

It's definitely a big one, Spencer. At 95 in the RPI, Maryland is not starting Big Ten play from a position of strength. I really like the way they've scheduled, with road series at Ole Miss plus the games vs. Ole Miss and Vandy at Cambria and the road series at UCF, but the series against Albany hurts their nonconference SOS, which is surprisingly low at 126. The Terps made a move this weekend at UCF, and they really need to keep it going.

Bradley

1:58

How would you compare how you feel about LSU this season to how you felt about Tennessee last year and Arkansas the year before that?? The curse of being the clear cut number 1 has really been hard past couple years in postseason.

Kendall Rogers

1:58

Bradley -- so it's kind of funny comparing LSU and Tennessee, because there are aspects to both teams I like more. For instance, I still think I like LSU's overall lineup more right now. It's just such a professional offensive approach. I also like Paul Skenes more than Chase Dollander. Outside of that? I like UT's overall rotation and bullpen much better from last season.

Kendall Rogers

1:59

All right ... I'm done for the day -- Aaron will finish us off with a few more answered Q's ... thanks for the questions gang! make sure you're using Season23 to get 23% off an annual subscription, here: http://www.d1baseball.com/subscribe

WC_Drew

2:02

How are you guys making sense of the Big (wild) West? Are UCSD & Fullerton better than advertised and should we be pumping the breaks on the Anteaters as a regional team?

Aaron Fitt

2:02

Yeah, I do think we've learned to pump the breaks on Irvine over the past couple weeks. It feels like it's the Gauchos and then everybody else, and ultimately I expect it to be a one-bid league despite the Big West's strong start to the season -- those RPIs just aren't holding up so far, and the poor overall records for Cal Poly, UCR, Davis and Bakersfield are going to continue to drag everybody down. I do think Fullerton and UCSD are better than anticipated but I don't think I see an easy path to regionals for either of them, aside from beating out UCSB for the auto bid, which I do not expect.

Aaron

2:04

What is your take on Arizona State? Coming off of a sweep of Arizona with a midweek GCU win, how close are the Devils to appearing in these rankings?

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