Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/17
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Dan Szymborski
2:33
And I think the Twins are going to get bitten in the ass on the Dozier thing.
Shane
2:33
Do you think the price of giving up a pick for a free agent has become overvalued? For teams with a pick in the bottom half of the first round, what are the chances that pick even turns into something valuable?
Dan Szymborski
2:34
I don't think so. Where it's talked about is when the player isn't that good to begin with.
*Nobody* worries about the loss of a first-rounder if we're talking a real superstar.
But losing a pick to sign Trumbo? That's serious.
Eric
2:35
More deserving of HOF, McGriff or Sheffield?
Dan Szymborski
2:35
Sheffield, but it's not a landslider or anthying
Ben
2:35
Just wanted to let Matt know that I chuckled at his Mallrats reference.
CamdenWarehouse
2:35
I'm late! Totally unprepared for back to back chats
Kosch
2:35
Are routine eye exams part of the players medical assessment? If no, why the F not? Would/Could/Should a club make that a mandatory contractual obligation?
Dan Szymborski
2:36
You would *think* they are, but there's always a story every year or so about some team never checked the guys eyesight.
Matt Diaz pops off the top of my head.
CamdenWarehouse
2:36
I like that Chass's wiki page describes him as a blogger and his site as a blog which would very much upset him if he knew what wikipedia was
Dan Szymborski
2:37
Actually, I'm not sure he even knows what the internet is. I think he's like Creed Bratton on The Office and thinks his Wordperfect files are the internet and then that grandson of his posts them to the web for him.
Chaps
2:37
What do you think goes through a player's mind when they're involved in months-long trade talks (i.e., Quintana & Dozier)? Could it have a negative (or maybe even positive) effect on their on-the-field performance?
Dan Szymborski
2:37
It might, but it goes with the territory.
Chaps
2:37
The two main teams in on Quintana are the Astros and the Pirates. Any reason to suspect that a #mysteryteam can jump in?
Dan Szymborski
2:37
Lots of teams ought to want Quintana, so there's definitely potential.
Chuncey Wiggins
2:37
Prediction on Donald Trumps first pitch...strike/ball?
Dan Szymborski
2:38
It'll land 10 feet in front of the plate and he'll tell Twitter that the catcher praised him for throwing the best, most beautiful split-fingered fastball he's ever seen.
CamdenWarehouse
2:38
Can we stop calling it the "Third Time through the Order Penalty" and start calling it the "I've Pitched to 18 Guys and am Starting to Get Tired Penalty"?
Von Schloss
2:38
Are you surprised we haven't heard more about a David Robertson trade?
Dan Szymborski
2:38
Yes
mtsw
2:38
In 244 innings, Ubaldo Jimenez has a 3.64 ERA with Caleb Joseph catching him. In 146 innings, he has a 5.89 ERA with Matt Wieters catching him. Is there something to this (beyond the much-smaller difference you'd expect given that Joseph is better at framing) or is it just noise?
Dan Szymborski
2:39
These numbers have so much noise that it's hard to find the signal.
Matt
2:39
I've never seen a WAR equation. What does it look like? Simple linear regression? More advanced linear model? Exponential components? Variable interaction?
Dan Szymborski
2:39
WAR is more of a concept than a strict set of equations.
It's setting a replacement measure and then measuring runs above that somehow, but WAR doesn't demand a specific measure
Some really bad writer could even use Runs Produced as the basis for a WAR measure.
2:40
Which I hope they do because it'll be fun to poke fun of.
Matt
2:40
I'm sure you're doing this yourself yearly to update your model, but any thoughts on releasing some measurement metrics regarding ZiPS? Maybe thing like the general percentile that you're hitting?
Dan Szymborski
2:40
I prefer third parties to release things because I have an insurmountable conflict of interest.
I provide data I have for people that need it.
2:41
But I'm a human and I'm no doubt going to like measurement stats that ZiPS looks better in.
Matt
2:41
Have you ever thought about trying to sleep at ESPN HQ in order to try to preserve your life/work balance?
Dan Szymborski
2:41
I like my life/work balance!
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:41
Nintendo Switch, you buying one? Watching the press conference tomorrow night?
Dan Szymborski
2:41
Not sure yet.
RotoLando
2:41
Would your cats prefer waffles or pancakes? I'm willing to send them either one via UberEats
Dan Szymborski
2:41
Galileo does like pancakes.
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