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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:55

Though I do have some complaints about journalists generally, though not likely to the degree that you do

12:56

Just to make a smaller point, I do think there's a real problem with writers being *fair* to things they don't like. That doesn't mean you make up stuff to say nice about things you don't like or create false balance

But I'm not sure that writers, across the spectrum, give enough grace to things they disagree with, and I do think that's a problem

12:57

The mindset I was raised with (my grandfather's influence) is to try the HARDEST to be fair to people, places, and things you don't like

Like, i said a LOT of negative things about how the Rockies were run in the late 2010s/early 2020s.

12:58

But believe it or not, anytime I had something negative to say, I felt obligated to REALLY dig into stuff they did to make sure I didn't like it

and when they did something I did like, I would ask myself if I'm covering it as positively as I would as something I think a better run team did

1:00

As I said, my grandfather was the biggest influence on my thinking generally. He was an old NY lawyer, an old style new deal-era NY democrat. But he alwyas believed in truly understanding things you don't like and things you hate and he tried to impart that on me

In high school, when that high school was becoming a law magnet, in GT social studies in 12th grade, we basically did ALL scotus cases all year, and had to argue them

1:02

and when we'd have to argue cases in the roles of lawyers, which we did a lot, I ALWAYS volunteered to take the sides I didn't believe in, the side I thought was odious. I think that kind of thinking helped me develop as a person

1:03

I go into every article I write, every ballot I make, trying to think about *how I am wrong* or *how I could be wrong* first and foremost. I have very little interest in projections I get right. I want to knwo the projections that ZiPS got wrong and know WHY ZiPS got it wrong, and HOW I can improve the model

1:04

and that's part of the reason I'm so self deprecating generally. I ALWAYS feel compelled to trust myself and my opinion less than that of ANYONE else. Since I have the responsibility of my opinion, it's up to me MOST of all to make sure it's not me being stupid

Sorry, this got a little tangential

Karl Hungus

1:04

Any chance for a time warp of Babe Ruth playing against non-whites?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

Probably none.

We actually had an idea for something like this at ESPN one time

1:06

but I do not feel I have the sensitivity to write about the topic. It's a dark part of baseball history, and I have a tendency to take very little seriously without jokes.

My hope is that my last words some day are me making light of my imminent death.

1:07

(also like my grandfather, who spent his final days at 96 cracking jokes about the whole thing)

Guest

1:07

Popped up in a discussion I saw the other day (admittedly can't remember where I saw it), but I'm just curious about Wander Franco continuing to get Steamer projections on his page even though he hasn't played in a few years and likely won't be returning to MLB. Obviously it's understandable about Clase/Ortiz getting projections despite their non-likelihood of returning (they at least played in 2025 and the very damning details came out at the beginning of the offseason), but Franco continuing to get them seemed a bit weird. A case of "Steamer is projecting them regardless, so might as well"? (Not necessarily a criticism, just curious.)

Dan Szymborski

1:07

That's kind of a Jared thing

I usually project disappeared players (for whatever reason) for one last season

Urban Shocker's Jockstrap

1:07

Believe Strider is mostly vegan, with the occasional piece of salmon thrown in.

Dan Szymborski

1:08

I can see it if you're doing it for health reasons

though it'd be weird if it were for ethical reasons

(I have no idea what Strider does it for)

1:09

but just the thought of "I don't believe in taking from any animal. Except fish. Fish can go FOAD!"

Lars

1:09

I’ve seen mention of the MLBPA potentially being okay with a “soft cap.” How is that different from what there is now (where there’s a luxury tax but no hard cap)?

Dan Szymborski

1:09

Has there been? It's hard to say. We kinda have a fairly soft cap

Salary controls

1:09

Do you believe it’s right to limit the amount of money someone can pay you to make them even more money?

Dan Szymborski

1:09

OH god, did I start something?

And no.

Crabby

1:09

Hang on, I just noticed something. Ohtani's MEDIAN projection for runs is 138??? That has happened twice in the last 15 years (admittedly including Ohtani last year)

Dan Szymborski

1:09

Dodgers are gonna score a lot of runs

Adenolith

1:09

As somebody who studied journalism and then transitioned out of it pretty quickly - Dan's advice is spot on. Find a niche, and DO. You'll never get good, you'll never make the adequate connections, or build the portfolio you need unless you actually write. And great writers write constantly.

Potato

1:10

Dan, excellent work as always. Can you explain why the AL divisional runners-up in the Zips projections all have higher WS Win % than the top teams? In the AL East, teams 2-4 ALL have higher WS Win % than Toronto.

Dan Szymborski

1:10

I was surprised to

1:11

but when the Orioles REALLY work out, it's because Bradish and Rogers go absolutely insane

they have longer tails than Cease or Gausman do

Crabby

1:11

How much better would people understand your projections if you called them "over/unders"?

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