JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/4/24

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Sodo Mojo

12:31

Based on Zips are the Mariners a better team now then they were at the start of the offseason?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I think they're very roughly similiar

similar

Victoria

12:31

Say Altuve plays 140 games with a WRC+ this year. Is he going to get something like 5/150 next winter?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

I dunno, that's pretty scary for any guy going into his age 35 season

Waste

12:32

Do you consider it a different sort of "waste of talent" when a guy does bad stuff and is sent away (see Franco, W) vs when someone gets injured and never reaches potential?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

It's certainly less tragic (for the player, that is)

If Wander doesn't play again, I'm certainly not going to do a ZiPS Time Warp for him in 20 years

12:34

There's certainly not going to be a Felipe Vazquez time warp either

Didace

12:34

WHY IS BOB YELLING?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

IT GOT QUESTIONS ANSWERS DIDN"T IT?

Marcos

12:34

How would you finish (begin?) your offseason from here if you ran the Cubs? Assuming you have about $45M left in your budget and won't trade Horton.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

At this point, I might just roll whatever I was going to spend this offseason into what I'm offering players over the next five years

The Cubs have missed a lot of the really exciting players

Victoria

12:35

Chapman/Swanson/Hoerner would be an incredible infield

Dan Szymborski

12:35

THOUGH it could depend on how low Chapman goes

I think he's actually become a bit underrated

TomBruno23

12:35

Longtime (ie, old) Cardinals fan and I realize Every Season Is A Blessing (ESIAB) and all that being said should I even be excited about 2024?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Excited? No, but the think about the NL Central is that there's no particularly compelling team

12:36

You should not get excited about me in a kickboxing tournament

BUT if it's a kickboxing tournament of eight year olds, I might be Bruce Lee

(I know he wasn't a kickboxer)

Glt4dc

12:36

It’s always a good story (or at least commented upon) when a prospect, traded player or FA plays for his hometown team. But are there any indicators about whether a player benefits - or is hurt by - from this?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

Never seen anything

Marcos

12:36

What contract would ZiPS give Kershaw?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

2/35

Mike

12:38

How do you see Woo Suk-Go slotting into the Padres bullpen?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Him and Matsui might be their two best relievers

Suarez has some big risks

12:39

How would you start the season at shortstop if you are the Rays? Wander :( and Walls looks like he may not be ready after surgery.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I might just stuff Caminero there and see what's magical

Dan

12:39

I know Fangraphs depth chats is not designed to project team wins but are there any consistent reasons a ranking of projected team WAR and projected team wins wouldn't be in the same order? Schedule seems like an definite answer the others I can think of all seem like maybes.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Risk isn't the same from player to player. The projections are really just a bunch of 50th percentile projections after all, and we know THAT doesn't happen

12:40

The ZiPS season sims try to deal with depth

12:40

Why does zips love Alex Thomas so much? 97 ops+ proj after 700 mlb PA of a 72? Wow

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Steamer did too! Both think his BABIPs have been too low

GA Blood

12:41

If you were able to pencil in the lineups for a team every day for one team this coming season which team would you want to have on your card? How much do you think you'd rely on ZiPS on a daily basis?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

ZiPS is a starting point, there are so many questions of fatigue and health that I wouldn't just tell the computer to make a lineup

Plus, since the difference between most non-crazy lineups is really damn small, I'd want to take into consideration player happiness/comfort as well

Eric

12:41

If the Padres look to clear up their infield logjam, what kind of return do you think Ha-Seong Kim would fetch?

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