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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/17
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Dimpledore
2:19
Let's say people didn't keep statistics in baseball (hahahaha, but okay, let's say that).  Would we think differently of player performance?  Would we memorialize players differently?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:19
Would probably be more tools-based.  LIke a bad 1997 GM.
Anon
2:19
I miss sabermetrics before WAR was invented. Discussions are settled too easily now.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:19
We settle discussions easily?
Pie
2:19
My understanding of the DRA stat is that it essentially uses a hierarchical model to include fixed/random effects. Are there any hitting stats that incorporates this method? If not, I may have found my holiday project
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:19
I don't believe so.
Post Malone
2:19
Where does ESPN get their WAR figures? They don't agree to FG or BBR. For instance, ESPN has Chase Headley as replacement level in 2017, whereas fWAR has him at 1.9 and rWAR 1.8.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:19
I'm not sure, I don't do anything with Stats & Info.
Vic Romano
2:20
I think 30+ HRs are a given....but on a scale of .175 to .275, where does Schwarber's AVG land next year?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
I CAN SMELL A BACKDOOR PROJECTION REQUEST
Jeff Bridich
2:20
After the Parra and Desmon disasters, how can I possibly sign a free agent this year to top that?  Hosmer come on down?
Dimpledore
2:21
Joe Morgan aside, to what degree does the fact that people don't/didn't like Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Clemens make it easier for them to reject them from the Hall?  Will a player like Ortiz put that to the test to a greater degree?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:21
It's getting better, but slowly.  Still too many legacy voters that have little connection with the game of the last couple decades.
Wolf
2:21
Any idea why a player's offensive and defensive values would dramatically flip like Lindor's year compared to last?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:22
Well, if they played better at one aspect and worse in another...
Post Malone
2:22
Do you think Kershaw is a Dodger for his entire playing career?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:22
I think in the end, he stays a Dodger for at least the vast majority of his career.  You cant' dismiss him going 1-4, 5.77 in a couple months in Texas in 2032 or something.
YKnotDisco?!
2:23
I'd love to see you karate-chop someone! Better yet, perform the 'flying crane' maneuver. I really, really hope Carson wasn't   just making empty threats.
D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe
2:23
Are you excited for the return of Jersey Shore?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:23
It's helpful to have as many terrible people filmed so you know to avoid them.
D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe
2:23
What size jersey do you wear?\
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:23
XL mostly.  I drink too much and exercise too little.
AK
2:23
The chat description describes you as a "monstrous creator of ZiPS."  Does that mean you're a monster, or ZiPS is the monster?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
Both.  Monsters can create monsters.
Jay
2:24
If Otani is serious about wanting to get a chance to hit, shouldn't he shy away from top tier AL teams like the Yankees and Red Sox? If those teams get into a tight pennant race and Otani isn't hitting there will be media/fan pressure to bench him. With a lesser team (or an NL team) he'd be given more opportunities to adjust to MLB pitching.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
That's why the questionnaires!
Dimpledore
2:24
There are a number of different ways people have tried to retrospectively assess what should predict an impending breakout season.  In your experience what are the single (or few) best indicators?   Walk rate and barrels?  Other?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
It's nowhere near that easy, simply becuase these things all shade the probabilities, not making them slam dunks
D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe
2:24
Gleyber for ROY?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
He's a contender if he gets the time
Daniel
2:24
How does an injury and age of the player affect the ZIPS projection?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:25
Well, depends on what we're talking about.  ZiPS does take both into consideration.
Though there's obviously only so much specificity you can give a projection system about an injury.
Ampersand
2:25
If Austin Romine was allowed to use an aluminum bat, would he hit more home runs than Aaron Judge?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:26
Probably not that much.
Trumbo Jumbo
2:26
I feel a bounce back year coming up, would anybody be interested in trading for me?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:26
No.
Dimpledore
2:26
Let's say for the sake of argument that a six man rotation would put less stress/wear and tear on an individual pitcher (particularly late in the season) and would allow you to maximize the performance and health of each pitcher at the cost of having your best pitchers pitch fewer games.  If you had six good starters (e.g. Astros), would this be a strategy worth pursuing?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:26
It might be.  As you suggest, it's very situation dependent.
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