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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 11/29/17
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Jonathan
2:26
Question re: Diamond Mind defensive ratings.  You've often (IMO correctly) argued that you shouldn't be fudging projections from ZiPS.  Why not take the same approach here, and just have a formula that relies on the range, arm, and error projections produced by ZiPS?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:26
Diamond Mind's projections are awkward becuase of the five range tiers.
2:27
The initial projections are given, but I still check them over.
Jeff
2:27
Not that I'm questioning the inner machinations of ZiPS, but Seth Lugo is coming off a 1.7 WAR season in just over 100 innings with a 3.95 FIP (with a 4.33 FIP in 2016). Why is he now projected to run a 4.7 FIP and be barely above replacement level? His K and BB rates are projected to be about the same, and if anything he was unlucky in terms of LOB% and BABIP last year.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:28
Now tell me:  Is the entirety of Seth Lugo's resumé his pitching with the Mets?
gump
2:30
Does ZiPS output WAR projections as probability distributions? IE, could you say Stanton's projected WAR is normally distributed with a mean of 5.X and a SD of Y? If so, do you ever publish the SD, or just the means?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:30
It does, but it's not a normal distribution.
I usually post what I need for the article I'm writing!  I like to hoard stuff for my own nefarious purposes.
Chad
2:31
Just took a look at Ohtani's ZIPS projection, and it's about what I thought it might be. Because virtually no MLB pitcher has faced him before, how likely do you think it is that he'll put up an OPS above .850? The projection has him at .794 OPS.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:31
I don't think it's that much more likely than the average .794 OPS player.  Major League pitchers are pretty good at adjusting quickly
AK
2:31
Lightning round:  Thoughts on the "Hearthstone is too expensive" debate and/or the loot box model for games in general?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:31
(Not doing an official lightning round since I have to go at 3)
2:32
I don't think the problem with Hearthstone is that the costs are directly too high, but that dust value is too low.
As for loot boxes, I don't like the Battlefront approach of squeezing people who shelled out $60 for the game.
2:33
I feel that for a full-priced game, loot boxes that aren't something purely cosmetic ought to not be a thing.
Jay
2:33
Given his unprecedented poor performance in 2017 and the flooded market for 2B, would it be better for the Tigers to deal Kinsler now or hang onto him until the deadline?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:33
I don't think the market's likely to get better.
D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe
2:33
Those are facts about Jordan Montgomery. Why insult the reader for asking a simple question? If you don't have a productive take on him as a player then just move along.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:33
"Thoughts for Jordan Montgomery" isn't exactly a specific question.
2:34
Thoughts about the Crimean War?
Thoughts about math?
Thoughts about existence?
What about cars?
Moltar
2:35
Egads that Mets ZiPS projection looks ugly. Should the Mets be starting to rebuild sooner than later? Why was their window of contention so short?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:36
Simply put, one of their biggest foundational strengths, a young, excellent pitching staff, has gone to crap quickly.
ECinDC
2:36
Is Jeter maybe not a good executive
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:36
It's certainly a possibility.
Gleyber Torres
2:36
Why is it that projections almost NEVER! Predict a player getting better? Even young studs who have good seasons are projected to regress.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:36
They do all the time.  You're focusing too much on a mean projection.
And mean projections are what they are because they work.
2:37
People drastically overrate the odds that even a good young players will improve.
Bobby Portis
2:37
What is your favorite cereal?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:37
Honey Bunches of Oats.
Wolf
2:37
Do you expect to see improvement from Julio Teheran in the future or is he all he can be?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:37
He'll have better seasons (probably) but I think he's essentially what he is.
Dimpledore
2:37
How close are the Angels to being a really dangerous team?  Are they near the luxury tax, or should they be big players in Arrieta/Darvish market?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:37
I think they're still a 75-win team that has Mike Trout.  But Mike Trout is pretty decent.
They OUGHT to overspend.
Yousadumoss
2:38
See how easy it is to just answer a question? If the guy asked for your "thoughts on sardines" you would have given some b.s. "sardines are fish, typically packed in oil are water, etc...".
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:39
I answer questions that are asked.
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