JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:13

I can't attest to anything going on there!

Other than the general disappointment the O's haven't landed a Burnes replacement

Doug

12:14

How concerned should teams be by Luis Castillo’s dip in K/9 last year?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Mildly. There was a dip in velocity and contact stuff

Codeeg.bsky

12:15

Max scherzer has been teammates with 9 former cy young winners, which team do you think he could sign with that would add the most to this total?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Giants?

12:16

Robbie Ray won a Cy Young, Logan Webb is a candidate, and the Giants have been connected with Burnes, who has one too

small e

12:17

The Red Sox keep insisting that they don't intend to do it, but if they *did* intend to move Devers from 3B to 1B/DH, how would that change his long term projections? Is there a precedent for a change to a player's offensive production if they change defensive positions?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

There's usually a minor change

but it's most pronounced moving from C/SS/2B

not so much 3B to 1B

Chase My Broth

12:17

Chase Meidroth is probably one of the better White Sox bats given that the bar for "best White Sox bat" is buried in the basement somewhere. How many at bats are we reasonably looking at Chase Meidroth accruing and will he be a great White Sox or the greatest White Sox?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

ZiPS actually projected Meidroth as the second-best White Sox player at the moment, behind Robert

Jon

12:18

Dan, posting again from a previous chat: When a minor league player is traded mid season, it lists his orgs out of order on their player page. For example, see Logan O'Hoppe. Lists Angels, Phillies, then Angels again.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I can mention it, but I don't really handle that

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:18

Is there anyone that pops out in ZiPS from the Rule V draft?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

Haven't really dug in yet

Gage Workman is an interesting utility type

but again, haven't gone in

jeb

12:19

what sort of extension would ZIPS calc for Tucker?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

7/191

12:20

(But no more as I'm probably doing an extension piece this winter)

Jon

12:20

Is Fried really that big of an upgrade over Cortes?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Rmeember, it's not THAT direct

The Yankes have some IP risk and Fried stabilizes it

Henry Dodger

12:20

What would it look like if Pete Alonso had a blue ox named Babe?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Depends if the ox adds WAR

Odoacer

12:20

How accessible is the zips historical record? For example, could you query for the best projection for a prospect in 2010?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I usually keep as much data as is practical

BeefLoaf108

12:21

According to ZIPS, which NEWLY acquired White Sox prospect is more likely to beat my ass in a bar fight? Kyle Teel or Chase Meidroth

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I don't do FiWAR (fight WAR)

Henry Dodger

12:21

With King and Cease set to be free agents next year, should SD go for the WS again this year or do what they did with Soto and try to retool on the fly through trades?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

I'd go all in.

Phil

12:21

I like Casas a lot and am hoping he is not traded. But I agree that there are some serious limitations on his value in absolute terms. He will be a DH for the majority of his career in the end, I would guess.

12:21

What do you think of the Gimenez trade? Seems like a classic big market / small market team kind of trade

Dan Szymborski

12:22

That seems abuot right

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:22

In your post this morning, you had the list of career WAR projections from 2015. Every one of them seemed to have ZiPS overshoot the actual final total. Why is that, and do you think that's a flaw or just inherent to how modeling works that far into the future?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

This group didn't do particularly well injury/decline wise. A similar list for 2005 missed low by an average of 10.3 WAR

Henry Dodger

12:23

Does Zips like Profar okay after his late-career breakthrough last season, or is it too fluky?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Likes him as an OK guy, but not a star

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