JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 12/12/24

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Sethual Healing

12:23

Are the Braves dropping the ball or biding their time?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

I think they're essentially a conservative organization and dont' feel a huge need to spend a lot on a pitcher

Jon

12:23

O'Hoppe comment: thanks, unsure where else to report it

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Wait, did he say somethin ghorrible or something?

12:25

Refugee

12:25

"Gage Workman is an interesting utility type" nominative determinism wins again

more casas v cast

12:25

Seems like if they did that deal both players would perform worse in the new parks and everyone would walk away angry

Henry Dodger

12:25

Zips would like an 8 year/$250M contract for Burnes better than the one Fried got?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Yes

Guest

12:26

Everyone is talking about Mariner's pitchers but what about Harry Ford? They have Cal, wouldn't it make sense to move Ford to a team that might need an up-and-coming catcher? A team like Boston that just moved Teel?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

If someone really wants to bid aggressively on Ford, I think I'd make the trade if I'm the Mariners

12:27

He's still young, but his 2024 was extremely underwhelming

Adam

12:27

The projection for the Phillies outfield WAR shows they desperately need improvement there. How do you see them going about this? They can’t possibly plan to run it back again…

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I don't believe the Phillies will do anything major there

Julian

12:27

7 / $211m for a Crochet extension??? Good lord, I would've guessed something closer to buying out his last two arb years and then adding on a 7 year extension on top at like $175m total, $25m AAV. I have huge faith in him though so I will be glad if there's an extension done regardless of cost.

Fantasy Question

12:27

Who combines for more HR + SB: Crews or Lawlar?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Crews

LonelyGiantsFan

12:28

Adames and maybe Burnes for the Gigantes next - how do you grade/project deals like those when you give up that many draft picks due to QOs? Obviously current proven talent is desired, but giving up 3-4 draft picks hurts for an org trying to rebuild the farm...

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I think if you get Adames/Burnes you're not super unhappy about the QO

It's the guys like Nick Martinez where you worry

HappyFunBall

12:29

Pedantic question, sir. I know that a player's age __ season is based on his age on opening day. Does that change at all for teams that don't play on opening day? If there was someone on the LADs who turned 30 on 03/24, would he be in his age 29 season (because the Dodgers open play on 03/18) or his age 30 season (because the rest of MLB starts 03/27)?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Seasonal age is based on July 1st

DeeBo

12:30

The SP market is HOT, and it feels like a big reason is that teams are placing a heavy premium on guys who they feel comfortable slotting into game 2 or 3 of a playoff rotation (e.g., Flaherty, Manaea, Severino, and to a lesser extent, Matt Boyd). My question is: Are teams placing too much emphasis on recent playoff experience? Each of these guys has demonstrated durability and consistency issues, and I'm skeptical their 3-4 year outlook is that much better than, say, Nick Pivetta, who's almost sure to command less money

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I'm nto sure teams are actually emphasizing recent playoff experience

tnst3b

12:30

The fangraphs walk off thing is pretty cool. I was in the top 1% off users.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I was amused that 1% of FG users apparently are in the projections aera more than me

Jason

12:31

Does your long term zips include body type? So many of these contemporary guys are huge, including Soto. We know there are no 35+ y/o guys who have 3.0 war, already. Will that be truer or falser in 10 years?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I haven't found a lot of use for that

Mostly because the data sucks

Robinhood

12:31

As a minority owner of the Braves (one share at $23.86), please have faith in our organization's plan

veteran infielder

12:31

keeping Mookie at shortstop is the first major Dodgers misstep since....?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Is it?

Codeeg

12:31

how bad are the white sox going to be next year if they also lose Roberts and Moncada?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Amusingly so!

But they'll probably win more games anyway

12:32

They had a lot NOT go their way

Guest

12:32

How many games does ZiPS project Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell to play this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

That's probably nto the most interesting part of a computer projection!

Odoacer

12:35

Sonny Gray has expressed that he wants to stay in St. Louis....but seeing the heat in the market, could he make sense to be moved? Wouldn't he fit nicely in Baltimore?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I think he'd be fun in Baltimore, though I think of it more as a fallback option

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