JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 3/13/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 3/13/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:41

And they really have been adding competent people in the front office. But the staff is still small and there's a lot of work. The Bridich era was absolutely terrible

RAGBRAI

12:41

With recent injuries in NY do both Baty and Acuna make the OD roster? Which if either would I want in an NL only?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I suspect they do. Not sure any is fantasy relevant

Adenolith

12:41

Are you a believer in using SGP for drafts?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I actually have my own version of fantasy replacement value that I was able to make while I was at ESPN

12:42

based on the best players likely available on the waiver wire

BaseballBundesliga

12:42

What are some of the fastest acting metrics that influence your RoS projections? FB velocity and swing speed?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

changes in walk rate and K rate tend to be real very quickly

In-season is relatively simple, as it needs to run every day

CocoPuffs

12:42

As a lifelong A’s fan, the start of the season is hitting me so hard, it’s so depressing. Add in the state of the world, it’s just insane. It’s gonna be a long summer

Eddie Gaedel

12:43

I was looking at Jett Williams’ scouting report and it got me wondering: why don’t we see more short players? It feels like baseball is the only major sport where being short can be an advantage. They might lack power, sure, but wouldn’t the smaller strike zone raise their OBP, and also lower the bar for pitch selection and contact? Especially with modern pitchers having less command.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

It can, but power is a big deal, and it's a bigger deal now.

The short players generally have to bring power

DFlo

12:43

Dan, have you looked at any expert league draft results? If so what player would you say has the most value according to ZiPS that isn't showing up in fantasy drafts.

Dan Szymborski

12:43

I haven't really dug into that

Guerrero

12:44

If Vlad needs to repeat 2024 to get $500m, how well would he have to do to get $585m (his rumored ask)? That’s like a $6m increase in AAV

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I can't say offhand! lol

My brain can't run ZiPS

mmddyyyy

12:45

Why isn't a player's age based on the calendar year?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

It just shifts around the edges really

and honestly, one year one way or the other isn't super huge

Guest

12:45

Your feeling of computational stagnation might be influenced by bad data. Just because you can’t squeeze big improvements isn’t due to your logic skills, it’s probably due to it being harder to find marginal gains in a mostly mature model. That or you have early stage dementia.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

No, I mean in the sense that 20 years ago, I could juggle like a dozen tasks at once

12:46

But I can't do that as well as back then. I'm more absent-minded, more distractable

Quarantino Martinez

12:46

Who will be the next 200-win pitcher?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

ZiPS said Sale and I'm sticking with it for now

Guest

12:48

Probably a question for Jaffe but would Barry Bonds getting one at bat redo his HOF eligibility? I figured Bonds would be the best ZiPS projection for a retired player for about 20 years.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

It would!

Minnie Minoso and Jose Rijo both got back on Hall ballots

12:49

Rijo was five percented the second time as well

and Minoso got back on the ballot in the mid-80s after his White Sox appearance in 1980

12:50

though I wouldn't put it past the Hall to say "screw that" and declare that Bonds won't be put back on the ballot

Bad New Bears

12:50

Pretty sure DeGrom had an a second Tommy John in 2023, with or without the internal brace, I do not know. But Strider had the brace only as a precaution, after the bone spur affecting it was addressed. Seems quite different?

Ceddy B Ready

12:50

I feel like by the time I turn 50 my brain will be so smooth and dense that I can go bowling with it. Multitasking be damned.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:50

How often do you get recognized? Where is the oddest place that someone has recognized you?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Extremely rarely if I'm not wearing my BBWAA card on a lanyard at a game or a conference

I'm rarely on TV

12:52

Oddest was this guy at Five Guys who ate his ENTIRE CHEESEBURGER standing up while waiting for his fries to be ready

Talked with him for about five minutes

12:53

My work is more recognizable than my name, and my name is more recognizable than my face. And the first two are usually unseen by people in public!

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