JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/16/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:45

But people vastly overrate the odds of a very good young player improving

Trout'

He Love This Pfaadt Butt

12:46

ZiPS is really high on Brandon Pfaadt. This rocks.

Dan the Man Mcgraw

12:46

got a bet with a friend - over/under 275 innings between Verlander/Schezer and more WAR - Gaussman/Manoah vs Cole/Rodon. Who you got?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Over and Gausman/Manoah

12:47

I mean, Rodon is injured righ tnow

12:47

Jazz Chisholm being on the cover of MLB The Show is such an odd choice. He's young and exciting but he has never had a successful, full MLB season

Dan Szymborski

12:47

It's a cover, not a seasonal award!

Guest

12:49

Last year, Jo Adell was one of your breakout candidate picks. This year, he is not. Do you think his ship has sailed, or he still has some development left in the tank?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I think the ship has sailed, the crew got scurvy, and the boat went over the side into oblivion after getting through the straits of kyrie

Pedro

12:50

Thoughts about whether Adolis Garcia will keep up his production this year? His strike out and walk rates are a bit concerning. Thanks

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I'm skeptical long-term on Garcia given his approach and age, but I think he'll be fine in the short-term

I'm actually surprised how much more positive ZiPS was with Garcia than the other systems

Peter

12:51

Jordan Montgomery, Pablo Lopez, Luis Garcia, Jeffrey Springs. Chris Bassitt. Preference for #4 starter?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Montgomery

12:53

(And while I appreciate the politics related questions, I only answered one by accident. I'm not going to tell any other writer how to behave, but for me, I like being one of the people you can count on *not* to get into politics. I do baseball and my other nerdy interests and that's it.)

Pedro

12:53

Could AI come to the area of baseball analytics? Very large quantities of data that need to be processed, algorithm is unbiased & can pick up tendencies that humans might ignore or miss

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I mean, it's not really *that* different from what is now, just more supervised

Fred

12:54

Does this injury take some of the spice out of Painter? Or would ZIPs have assumed something like this is bound to happen with every young starter - at some point?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

There's some risk already built into the projections

OH CRAP, EDWIN DIAZ THATS WHY I HAD IT OPEN

Did Chewbacca use TP?

12:55

Do spring training/WBC stats impact ZIPS projections in any way? Are AFL stats incorporated?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

No. I haven't found AFL stats helpful enough and I'm not sure the slight gain in accuracy is worth the confusion of having multiple sets of ZiPS projections floating around

Guest

12:56

What is the hit rate for teams on early extensions (less than one year of MLB)?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

I'm not sure they're binary

12:57

There are sometimes misses, but the dollar figures for players like SIngleton are quite low

Nate

12:57

Hi Dan -- When you rank prospects for the ZiPS 100, is it based on career WAR or some number of first years in the player's career? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I noted this in the piece! I switched from just the career WAR to the interquartile mean

hscer

12:58

how much of the design of ZiPS (or any projection system) is science vs art?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

It's still mostly science, but there's a certain art to it

Like what to prioritize, what you're looking for

All the great dimensionality reduction tools out there, they give you the data to work with, but you still have to *choose* what's in your model and how

laxtonto

12:59

Dungeons and Dragons or Cyberpunk?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

D&D

1:00

I'm not into future stuff as much

and both are way above zombie-related things which I can never get into

Kyle

1:00

Q: Why did no one find any Easter eggs from the bunny this year? A: It had great Location+.