JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:48

I think they're *mostly* united but I get the sense that there's 10 or so who are VERY resistant to moving on anything

Jonathan

12:49

What is Zips DC?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

ZiPS pro-rated to depth chart

Pirates Hurdles

12:49

RE backwards ZiPS - That would be great to do for a guy like Gurriel to see what might have been.

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Don't make me tap the sign!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/should-yuli-gurriel-and-jose-abreu-be-hall...

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:50

How much do you think attendance will be down (vs 2019 last regular year) once games restart?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

20%

But it also may come down to how ugly this continues and how quick this resolves.

If they came to a quick deal this weekend (ha!) it might not have any effect

but this prediction is based on them not coming to a quick deal this weekend

Jonathan

12:50

Hot take: this is the player's fault, but they've done a better job creating the narrative

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Don't look at me!

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:50

When MLB eventually goes to 32 teams, do you favor the 4 division per league alignment?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

NFW

Wireless Joe Jackson

12:51

Does a sustained lockout affect the timeline for when prospects become Rule 5 eligible?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

It shouldn't

HOWEVER

if the whole season is gone, that kinda makes things tricky with 40 man rosters

12:52

And if there's no baseball for the entire year, well, it may not be my problem to worry about anymore

Didace

12:52

I am neither pro-player nor pro-owner - I am pro-baseball. In general I agree that the owners are playing hardball (heh) more than needed, but the players have a little bit of cognitive dissonance going on with one issue. They are adamant that the system needs to be set up so that all teams are incentivized to be more competitive, but then they want the "salary cap" increased so that big free agents have more upside but then only a few teams can spend that much.

Dan Szymborski

12:52

But there are some problems here

You don't like the CBT being raised

Fine.

12:53

NOW. Where's the player share from revenue growth going to come from?

The players are hte ones that proposed a different revenue sharing system that incentivized winning and investing in team

the OWNERS said no.

12:54

Basically, it's a fake competitive balance scheme. Why should the players be shut out of baseball's revenue growth forever because Bitty Bobby Nutting didn't get as much in his trust fund as he'd like?

Pirates Hurdles

12:54

Ha, I thought you had done that, but then your answer made it sound like you havent done ZiPS backwards, lol

Dan Szymborski

12:54

It makes sense to translate performance that happened

I do backwards for Ted Williams

Gonzo

12:55

What happens first: a player breaks rank and says they should take the best deal possible and go play; or a wealthy owner breaks rank and calls out the cheap owners?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I think a player simply because it's hard to be as disciplined with 1200 people

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine

12:55

Re: Rule 5 draft: Rule 5 itself says its the number of Rule 5 drafts after the player signs (with a minor exception if a player signs right before it). So the lockout normally should not affect it unless there is no Rule 5 draft this year.

Dan Szymborski

12:55

But I think the issue is that you have to *protect* players from Rule 5 drafts.

And you do it by putting them on the 40-man roster

which makes them union members

Didace

12:56

"Where's the player share from revenue growth going to come from?" Higher minimum salary, bigger bonus pool, free agency sooner... I never said the owners would go for it.

Dan Szymborski

12:56

But free agency sooner doesn't increase the amount of money there is out there

Nor does a bigger bonus pool.

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