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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/16/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:45

Shaw

WBC enjoyer

12:45

how much more does Zips like Jordan Walker than before?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

He's up 10 points ROS in wRC+ in the simple in season model and 19 points in the full one

Oaktown Blues

12:45

Replacement level for burgers is really high, agreed

10-8!

12:46

Just wanted to thank you as always for doing these, I enjoy tuning in live/reading later.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

BUT YOU HERE NOW

OR IS IT ALREADY LATER

Carl Crawford

12:46

My son only has one barrel and one ball pulled in the air. Surface stats look good but the batted ball profile portends trouble. ZiPs still in on him?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

ZiPS still like. He's likely a high BABIP guy

Jimmy (Catching) Crooks

12:46

You mentioned the Rice article that Jordan Walker has the most gain from preseason ZIPs. What does his 3 year outlook look like now?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

average playery

which is preetty darn good considering what the projection WAS

War2D2

12:48

Also: I hereby publicly apologize for thinking all these years that you were the one who disparaged Chicago tavern-cut pizza.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Yeah, in a BlueSky conversation, we found the real culprit: Guest

Look At This Sotograph

12:48

What's wrong with Sonny Gray? My man has halved his strikeout rate this year.

Dan Szymborski

12:49

What's really worrisome is that it is supported by the contact rate. He's basically bled a third of his swings-and-misses from last year

Debate Me

12:49

Team “ownership” should be dissolved, the major leagues administered by anonymous bureaucrats paid by the players-collective, and salaries beyond a rookie (1m) and veteran (1.75m) minimum should be distributed end of season by an average of leading WAR formulae

Dan Szymborski

12:49

A system that everyone will hate!

Jimmy (Catching) Crooks

12:49

With all these other highly touted prospects getting extensions, what would ZIPs think is fair for Wetherholt?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I'm holding off on Wetherholt because I want to write about that one if it happens!

Chance Crisco

12:49

Jose Ramirez is a few weeks away from 300-300. Does ZIPS give him any chance at all of getting to 400-400? I imagine the stolen bases would be the harder part of that

Dan Szymborski

12:50

He was around 50% at last check I believe

Taco Derek Bell

12:50

What did you think of trails beyond the horizon?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I really enjoyed the game, though I wish Falcom was being quicker at resolving the insane cliffhanger

12:51

it was one of their most productive games storyline-wise for a while, as they answered quite a few long-running questions about the world itself. and answered a few mysteries from even the first trilogy of the game

We now know what Kevin was doing in Calvard that he was investigating between Trails Sky SC and TC and the meaning of the 31 Cypress Trees book

Ben

12:52

Cubs fans were losing their mind 2 days ago. Amazing what checks notes, 2 wins, will do.

Dan Szymborski

12:52

I mean it comes from fanatic

‘Merica is a supremacist death cult

12:52

Does it ever bother you how unappreciative and entitled consumers are towards The Product (players)? I’m convinced, not really, most sports fans neither watch or play sports so much as have a way to gamble

Dan Szymborski

12:52

You spend your money, you get your say, really

Now, I don't endorse a lot of what fans do

But they're customers

Wallyworld

12:53

Hey Dan, just wanted to get your thoughts on the new wave of prospect/prearb contracts? Seems like younger unproven guys are getting paid which is a plus for them, but somewhat capping/pushing back prime FA years. From the ownership side, they are getting a bit more risk as obviously not all prospects pan out.....but also saving prime FA year $$$. It just seems to almost make sense....which rarely happens

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I mean, it's two parties trading off risks

going from $1 million to $100 million is more valuable for someone than going from $101 million to $200 million, I imagine

Pat

12:54

Funny on the burger comment, I agree. I have a few local favorites that I like more, but, otherwise, it's what it is. The other point- I will only get a burger at a "normal" (non fast food, not a known burger spot) restaurant if they have nothing else I like on the menu. Good safe fallback option.

Dan Szymborski

12:54

A burger is usually a safe bet

mmddyyyy

12:54

If Mason Miller threw say 60 amazing innings and won the Cy Young, he'd have a third the innings of a starter. How good would a position player need to be in 250 ABs to get MVP consideration?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

I don't think a position player CAN unless they do something absolutely certifiably insane

Guest

12:54

I am getting very serious vibes about the Pirates. The rotation is looking very solid and the acquisitions, O;Hearn and Lowe

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