JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/24

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/24

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30fwar

12:28

If Judge gets .5 fwar in his next 29 PA he'll have 30fwar in his last 2,000 PA (start of 2022). .5 in like 5 games is hard for humans but he's literally putting up .1 per game right now

steve

12:29

Do you think Reese Olson can be a strong mid-tier starter or is there more upside here?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

I think good 2/3 guy, but I'm not sure that he really has that ace type upside

Mike Elias

12:29

What are some realistic actions I should take to right the ship?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

It might involve a time machine, which is a problem

12:30

And you have to be really careful altering history because unexpected things happen

Laura

12:30

Prefer Jelly sandwich. Any updates on R Anthony since info about sore shoulder?

12:32

Any new news about R Anthony?Only playing DH due to shoulder soreness is all I've read. I prefer Jelly sandwich.

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Haven't heard anything NEW though I was under the impression that it was getting better and he'd be back in the OF before too long

Nate

12:32

Was the rumor of MASN+ charging people $8999 instead of $89.99 true?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

First I heard of it, so no idea!

12:33

Though as someone who keeps $0 balances, that kind of thing is scary!

Brandon Hyde

12:33

Rank the following ideas for giving us a jolt right now: release Mateo & call up Mayo, challenge trade Mayo or Heston or a package for Zebby Matthews, go all in for Alcantara or Pablo Lopez, grab an Old Dude like Heaney. Or something else??!!

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Probably Alcantara

I like Zebuliferous, but I'm not sure I want to trade Mayo or Kjerstad for him

12:34

I still frequently accidentally call him Keston Hjerstad about 10% of the time still, BTW

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:34

It's April!

Zach

12:34

Is Rutschman a bust?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Randy

12:34

Thoughts on Kurtz early callup?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

He was destroying AAA despite almost no professional experience, how coudl they NOT

War2d2

12:35

Hi Dan! I punted 2B in my h2h 5x5 draft and now I’m regretting it because my SS also turned into an unintentional punt. I floated Kyren Paris for as long as I could but I’m flailing now. I have Lux in there now, but L. Acuna, Torres, India, and Rafaela are all on the wire (mostly for good reason). Any advice for who is most likely to break out (into an avg player)?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

India is at least interesting at times

Guest

12:36

Math sanity (read: stupidity) check: in a sample of 13 hitters, is there a 50/50 chance that 1 of them hits their 92nd percentile projection over some sample?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

66% chance of at least one of 13 hitters hitting their 92nd percentile

49% for one of eight hitters

12:37

53% for one of nine hitters

1-0.92^dudes

Bob Loblaw

12:38

Do you think Shedeur Sanders drops out of the first round?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I think he's a second rounder

Judge

12:38

His xwoba is higher than his two 11fwar seasons. How is he still doing this

Dan Szymborski

12:38

judicial supremacy

David Stearns

12:41

Maybe we should stop questioning David Stearns and the way he puts together pitching staffs?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

He's certainly making that case!

The Oriole Bird

12:41

Don't look now, but Jackson Holliday's wRC+ = 99! (0 WAR, though.)

Fried Rice

12:42

In 2030, the top 5 hitting 1b will be.......

Dan Szymborski

12:42

May be someone not in the league yet

12:43

Preseason, ZiPS had Top five first baseman in 2030 as Vlad, Eldridge, Manzardo, Isaac, and Busch

but the error range here is obviously HUGE

Aaron Judge

12:44

Best clean hitter of integration era?

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