JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/24/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:28

It'd be weirder if it didn't

JasonM

12:28

How well does ZiPS do with limited pro data on a player such as Schanuel?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

Definitely much larger error bars

When you have no professional experience

12:29

Normally, I wouldn't even give Schanuel an official projection for 2024, but now I'm stuck!

Which means college translation, which suck

Joe

12:29

ZiPS had very strong projections for Yoshida. I believe 3+ WAR. At the time I thought the batting line was optimistic, but reasonable. Otoh, the defense and base running concerns raised by the scouting reports seemed to be mostly minimized. There was some crowing early in the year that the optimistic projections were correct. He’s now slumping badly and sitting at a disappointing 0.8 WAR. I think his hitting will bounce back some, but his defense and base running value make it hard to ever see him as a 3+ WAR player. Does ZiPS have difficulty projecting non hitting performance from foreign leagues?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Yeah, because the data for the defense kinda sucks

Jerry Reinsdorf

12:29

I am scheduling interviews for the new "single decision maker" in baseball operations. You interested?

Dan Szymborski

12:29

Between him and TLR and Moore and Getz, it's just a slightly different four-headed monster

Sirras

12:30

Two big stars hurt in one night. Who are the next brightest, must-watch players to watch every AB/pitch from?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

He's still raw and McLain's obviously the better player right now, but Elly De La Cruz IS fun

Zach

12:30

I assume this article is for the offseason. Would you consider writing an article outlining Ohtani's rest of career projections? Could you include his projections before his second Tommy John surgery (TJ), as well as the possibility of him becoming a reliever or outfielder?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I'm actually running some numbers along these lines for something Jay is working on

12:31

Glad he grabbed that one as writing about this just feels too sad for my tastes

Todd Bonzalez

12:31

What kind of player is TJ Friedl moving forward? Tons of blue in the Savant page, but somehow still having a productive season at the plate. A lot of that has to be luck, right? Seems to do everything else reasonably well.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Just an averagish stopgap dude

Guest

12:32

The games are too fast now! How can we slow them down? Oddly aggressive Burger King mascot runs on the field at arbitrary moments?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Fast is good with me! I like high density baseball

brent says go padres

12:32

Would people be calling for Preller's head if the Padres were playing at their run differential? It just seems like they've gotten historically unlucky but between Salas, Merrill, Lesko, and a few other guys it seems like he's been able to replenish the farm system while assembling a talented but unlucky MLB roster. I get it, it's not my money, and the year is frustrating, but it seems like an overreaction to me

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Probably not. Perception is a big thing

Preller's a roughly average GM. He's done some good thing and done some crappy things

Nathan

12:33

If I were a fortune teller with 100% accuracy at predicting when and which players will get injured, but these injuries cannot be prevented, would I make more money off of MLB teams or gamblers?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

why not both? :-D

Sean

12:33

With the Ohtani news, what effect do you think it will have on his free agency? Lots of opt outs? No more pitching?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I don't have the slightest idea!

Sammy So-so

12:33

Truly enjoyed the Rebuild the Bombers piece. If they had sold on Bader and Peralta and maybe Gleyber at the deadline, would things look a little brighter right now or would it not be enough to move the needle?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I'm not sure they would have really gotten anything future-changing

Failed Rebuild

12:34

Dan, we imagine that quite a bit.

Imagining only hurts us.

12:34

What are zips’ odds of Acuña, Murphy and Olson each producing at 99th percentile outcomes, Ozuna and Rosario coming back from the dead to top career averages, Arcia hitting for the first time in his life, and Riley/Albies/d’Arnaud matching or exceeding projected output ALL IN THE SAME YEAR? Has to be like .00001%

Dan Szymborski

12:35

I disagree with the premise though!

In OPS+, Acuña's only at his 63rd percentile outcome

12:36

Oops wrong hang on

(I still had it projecting 2024)

12:37

90 (i knew instantly it wasn't actudally 63)

And a little lower since it's in 5/6 of the season

instead of 6/6

12:38