Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Rays 7th Infielder
12:44
With Frazier gone, does Eugenio Suarez move to 3B?
Dave Cameron
12:44
Yeah, seems like it. Peraza to 2B, Suarez to 3B.
Julio Pepper
12:44
If Stewart wasn't in love with Swanson, why the F did they draft him?
Dave Cameron
12:45
You have to take someone, and you can't trade draft picks in MLB. It's possible to not think any of the guys in a draft are 1-1 worthy.
Josh in DC
12:45
What do you think the Nationals should do with Papelbon? I vote for just cutting him, but it's not my money.
Dave Cameron
12:46
Just keep him. He's a jerk, but he's always been a jerk, and teams win with jerks all the time.
Ben
12:46
Please tell me that the Piscotty, Grichuk, Wacha and CMart are still reasons to be optimistic on our future. It's been a cold winter.
Dave Cameron
12:46
Yeah, Cardinals still have a bright future. Just happen to play in a rough division, but franchise is in a good place.
Joe
12:46
I realize this will be the third question on this, but why would Bryant get more on the market than Machado?
Dave Cameron
12:47
No knee surgeries, more power.
Northsider
12:47
Do you see a player like Heyward exercising the opt-out? When scenarios would make it more likely?
Dave Cameron
12:48
Barring injury, yes, Heyward is likely to opt-out. He'll be choosing between FA at 29 or 5/$106M. He'd have to be a +2.5 WAR guy at that point to not get a better deal than 5/$106M, probably.
EC
12:48
What's the age cutoff for players receiving opt-outs? It seems like anyone going into their age 31 season or older hasn't been able/hasn't wanted one.
Dave Cameron
12:48
Not true: James Shields got one last winter.
Joe
12:48
The Diamondbacks seem to have the same problem as the White Sox last year. They've made moves and have a great core of about 5-7 players. But once you get past those players, there's just not that much there.
Dave Cameron
12:49
I like their supporting cast more than I like CHW's, but yes, they have serious CHW/SDP potential; big off-season moves that look bad not too long after and lead to nothing good.
second thoughts?
12:49
You were on record for saying numerous times last year that the Mets shouldn't make a trade for a bat because they weren't one player away from contention. How do you like them now? (Seruously)
Dave Cameron
12:50
Actually, that's not at all what I said. Here's what I actually wrote about the Mets last year, back when everyone was destroying them for thinking they were a contender by signing Cuddyer. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/maybe-the-mets-aren-t-crazy-for-signing-cuddyer-111214
jose
12:51
Can we think of opt-outs (specially early ones like Cueto's) as a way for teams to sign star players to short contracts when they simply arent financially able to do so for long term?
Dave Cameron
12:51
No, because teams are still signing them to long-term deals when they give players these opt-outs. The Vernon Wells deal didn't become a short-term contract just because the Blue Jays put an opt-out in it.
Terrible Ted
12:51
After the signings so far this off season, doesn't the Trout contract look insanely undervalued?
Dave Cameron
12:52
It was insanely undervalued when he signed it.
Robert
12:52
I can't make heads or tails for what to expect from the Mariners this year. Thoughts or predictions?
Dave Cameron
12:53
Middle of the pack team with a ton of variance. They need Felix/Cano to have MVP seasons and have to hit on a few of these bounce-back guys. If things break right, they could win the division. More likely, they're a fringe WC team, and if Felix or Cano struggle, they're looking at a rebuild.
Slew
12:53
Are the Indians squandering an opportunity by doing nothing?
Dave Cameron
12:54
It's early. I wouldn't assume they'll do nothing all winter.
James
12:54
Trayce Thompson as a platoon partner for Joc Pederson?
Dave Cameron
12:54
Or outfield depth to replace coming OF traded.
A cat
12:54
If Soler is available, it would seem that BOS would try to get their hands on him, given the good job Chili has done in developing young hitters over the past year, such as the turnarounds for JBJ, Bogaerts and Swihart. Re: Rusney, adding Rodriguez to obtain Soler and signing Chen, would not increase payroll significantly, CHN receives a good starter to develop behind Lester.
Dave Cameron
12:55
Cubs would probably love to get Eduardo Rodriguez, but I doubt Red Sox move him.
Guest
12:55
Your view of opt outs is very simplistic and assumes perfect rationality and information. Probably players routinely value themselves higher than teams do at the point of opt out, like life-long winners do, and therefore the opt out could benefit the team
Dave Cameron
12:56
Please show me an example of a time a player opted out of his contract and then signed for less than what he had guaranteed remaining.
(Hint: it hasn't happened.)
Bob
12:56
How did the Dodgers get Montas AND Thompson for that package? What am I missing??
Dave Cameron
12:57
Reds probably preferred someone who could play right away. They seem to be targeting near-ready prospects in their trade, so they gave up some long-term upside to get a guy who can step in to a starting role next year.
TKDC
12:57
Guys have declined qualifying offers and then got less money than they would, so it's not completely black and white.
Dave Cameron
12:58
That's because players hate one year contracts. Guys aren't opting out of one year deals.
When you have 3/4/5 years guaranteed on the table, you're not walking away from that without knowing you can get a raise.
Bob
12:58
Selection bias. It hasn't happened yet bc all the opt outs were early enough that there were still some prime years in play. As with QOs, once that needle gets pushed further, we will see someone chose not to opt out.
Dave Cameron
12:59
We've seen plenty of players choose not to opt out. Opt-outs aren't new, they're just becoming more fashionable this winter. The earlier assertion is that players (and their representatives) are not good enough at reading the market so that it's reasonable to expect a player on a bad contract to opt-out, making the opt-out good for the team.
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