JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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Chris

12:19

How does de Aza get almost $6M guaranteed? Was any other team going to offer half that? Seems like a real fail by Mets to not recognize his price tag and the state of OF marketplace.

Dave Cameron

12:19

You have apparently not noticed the rising prices of depth lately. De Aza's deal was fine.

@outfieldgrass24

12:20

I know you've gotten flack for "hating on the D-backs," which I think is maybe unfair. But in yesterday's piece, Steamer has them pegged for 79 wins. Given any projection system's limitations and your corresponding corrections, what win level are you comfortable putting them at? Greater than 79, if only by a little?

Dave Cameron

12:20

I think they look like a .500 team.

Shrug emoji

12:20

As a Mets fan, is it unreasonable of me to be disappointed that the team seems content starting Lagares full-time in spite of his offensive shortcomings?

Dave Cameron

12:20

Yes.

Gary

12:21

Why the hell are the Rockies looking at Gerardo Parra?

Dave Cameron

12:21

I'd guess they have a CarGo trade lined up.

12:21

Can you talk about why we haven't seen more front-loaded long term contracts? Especially with younger players, it would seem like front loading would benefit both the player and the club. Is is just because the Union values higher nominal values as opposed to say, higher present value contracts? If so, has anyone explained the time-value of money to them?

Dave Cameron

12:21

Front loaded contracts have no value to the team.

Aaron S

12:22

Any way you see the Cardinals adding an impact bat with Cespedes, Upton, and Davis still on the market? The outfield market in particular has seemed really soft.

Dave Cameron

12:22

Yeah, I'd think STL should be in on Cespedes at this point.

Gary Gorr

12:23

What are your thoughts on the Drew Storen trade and do you think Sanchez moves to the rotation?

Dave Cameron

12:23

Storen trade seems smart for both sides. I still don't buy Sanchez as a starter, and I don't see any real reason to try it.

Dull Burham

12:23

You have alluded to the "bubble" economics of tv contracts. Given the fading nature of the cable tv industry, what kind of effect will this have on the MLB?

Dave Cameron

12:24

Eventually MLB will just sell the content to consumers directly. It might be another 10 or 20 years, but that's where we're headed. The league has done a very good job laying the groundwork to be able to replace their cable income with direct consumer sales income.

Gary Gorr

12:25

Why do you think the Jays in 2016 are not as good as the 2015 version?

Dave Cameron

12:27

You think Josh Donaldson is going to put up +9 WAR again? You think you're getting +4 WAR from Kevin Pillar in 2016? You think Marco Estrada is going to run a 3.13 ERA again? Most of the roster should reasonably be expected to perform worse than they did a year ago.

Snarfle

12:27

At this point, do you think Upton takes something like 5/100 with an opt out after the first year? Or something like that? Okay deal as a full thing, but mostly a bet on himself for next year.

Dave Cameron

12:27

No one's going to give him $100M guaranteed and a one year opt-out. The loss of the pick for signing him makes giving him a one year opt out (or a one year deal) hard unless he takes a very low 2016 salary.

Jack Wagon

12:28

What is the most frustrating part of your job?

Dave Cameron

12:29

Probably people questioning our integrity/motives for coming up with analysis that reaches conclusions they don't like.

vivalajeter

12:29

Regarding powerball, I have to disagree with you. I'll buy $10 in tickets. I'll be in a great mood for the next 36 hours, dreaming of what I'll spend the money on. That's worth more than the cost of admission.

Dave Cameron

12:29

If you see it as an entertainment expense, like going to the movies, great.

If you see it as an investment, eh.

Guest

12:30

is your best friend someone from childhood youve stayed in touch with, or someone you met as an adult? do they like baseball?

Dave Cameron

12:30

Cheesy answer, but my best friends are my family members.

Guest

12:31

Would Jonathan Lucroy solve several of the Ranger's lineup problems? And what would it take to get him at this point? Mil seems to be rather reasonable to work with from a prospect perspective (i.e. the Gomez and Gallardo deals).

Dave Cameron

12:31

I've heard the ask on Lucroy is insane.

Chuck

12:31

Who ends their career with the highest WAR: C. Seager, C. Correa or F. Lindor?

Dave Cameron

12:31

I'd go with Correa.

Jack Wagon

12:31

"Dave Cameron was just hired as the GM for the Tigers. His first move is_________"?

Dave Cameron

12:32

to hire a more qualified person to run the job while I take all the credit.

Kylo Ren

12:32

Can I get a definitive answer on FG+? I like giving you guys $$$ but it sounds like it won't exist anymore? Anything replacing it?

Dave Cameron

12:32

There's an announcement coming soon about that. There will be a way for you to give us money.

Ernie Camacho

12:32

When you add ZiPS to the depth charts, do you "re-center" it or Steamer so that the two are assuming the same run environment? At the end of the day, for your projected standings, do you essentially use pitching and batting projections + a run simulator to distribute a set number of runs?

Dave Cameron

12:33

Yeah, that's pretty much the gist of it.

Aaron T

12:33

Would a Jean Segura-Austin Hedges deal make sense? It would there be more pieces going one way?

Dave Cameron

12:33

Segura is mostly worthless, so MIL would have to give up a lot more than that.

Nick

12:33

Is Miguel Cabrera a future hall of famer? 60+ WAR and still going, but no 8+ win seasons.