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Dave Cameron
12:33
He's a lock to get in.
Nate
12:33
What do you think the Royals do with 2B and RF? Think they will make a move for someone similar to Blackmon in CO?
Dave Cameron
12:33
I could see them signing Parra. Their kind of player.
Raindog
12:34
Trading an out-of-options Dylan Bundy for Corey Dickerson is a) crazy for the O's, b) crazy for the Rockies, or c) a fascinating gamble? Would the answer change if it was a different Rockies OF?
Dave Cameron
12:34
No idea why COL would do that.
Inigo
12:35
Inciarte's value is probably at it's highest right now, no? He's probably reached his ceiling offensively, his entire value is based on his defense, and defense declines pretty fast. So Braves should trade him now?
Dave Cameron
12:36
In the sense that every young player is only going to lose value as they have fewer remaining years of control and get more expensive, yes, but he's not a quickly depreciating asset who will be worthless in a few months.
Raindog
12:36
As an O's fan should I be more scared of the O's signing Gallardo for silly $$$, or going forward with Mike Wright / Tyler Wilson as our #5 starter?
Dave Cameron
12:37
I don't see Baltimore as strong contenders so I'd rather bet on kids than throw money away.
PS
12:37
Mets fans/writers have mentioned trying to send Wheeler for Gardner and Miller. As a Yankees fan this is a clear no from me, but what would the add from the mets be to make that work? Or am I wrong and a fair swap? (let's assume the wilpons are willing to add $24 mil in salary which, I mean, LOL)
Dave Cameron
12:37
That deal would be insane for the Yankees. Wheeler isn't that valuable.
12:38
Maybe if they added Dilson Herrera and something.
The Gyorko Store Called
12:38
Will the new CBA get done before the end of the World Series? 2017 Spring Training?
Dave Cameron
12:38
The current CBA expires on December 1st, so it has to get done this year.
Compton
12:39
I've never played the lottery because I understand math, but just playing devil's advocate here... Is an analysis of the lottery absolutely limited to EV? Couldn't one argue that losing $5 or whatever a ticket costs wouldn't affect your day-to-day life, whereas winning so many millions, even with such a miniscule chance, would change your life completely?
Dave Cameron
12:40
It's an argument that can hold if you believe lottery ticket buyers are disciplined to ever only buy one or two tickets in their lifetime. In reality, it is a regular expense for a large portion of people who can't afford it.
Anheiser
12:40
You've said you're not a big drinker, but if you do 'indulge', would it be for a beer during a game, or a glass of wine with dinner, etc?
Dave Cameron
12:41
I just don't drink at all, actually. A local craft beer place opened up a mile from my house and I gave it another shot, but I just don't really like the taste of alcohol. I ordered the fruitiest, weakest ABV thing I could find and it still burned my throat.
The Gyorko Store Called
12:42
If the Royals finish 80-82, do projection systems win once and for all?
Dave Cameron
12:42
No single example will ever prove a system right or wrong.
Johnny5Alive
12:42
its so cheap to buy mlb content directly as well
Dave Cameron
12:42
Well it won't be when it's not being subsidized by existing cable contracts.
12:43
But MLBAM is setting themselves up to essentially build a sports network of sorts, so there's a decent chance they'll be able to keep the costs reasonable by attracting people who want a live sports bundle.
Johnny5Alive
12:43
if only they clear up the "market" issue
Dave Cameron
12:44
The market issue is a direct result of needing to protect their cable deals. Those go away, so do their market/blackout issues.
Justin
12:44
Which 2B has a better chance at putting up 4+ WAR in 2016, Kendrick or Utley? Both did it as recently as 2014.
Dave Cameron
12:44
Kendrick. Utley won't play enough.
Cory S.
12:44
Would raising the cost of young player's salary (their first few years in the majors, i.e. they make $2.5m instead of $500k) lower or raise the overall cost of FA stars? Is there any thing to gain by balancing the money a player earn early in their career with what they earn later in their careers?
Dave Cameron
12:45
It would lower the cost of FAs because teams would have to allocate more of their budget to pre-arb guys, and arbitration guys would be more expensive too, since it's a raise-based system. But it would also be a regressive tax that would much more heavily harm lower-revenue clubs and provide a big advantage for big payroll teams.
Snarfle
12:46
If you were put in charge of a baseball team, is there something you would do that no one else is trying?
Dave Cameron
12:46
Probably not. The Dodgers are implementing a lot of ideas that I've advocated for previously, so I'm running out of new ways to spend other people's money.
Hawk
12:47
you hit on the main regression candidates for the Jays, but doesn't getting more out of Stroman/Tulo/Travis make up for a lot of that?
Dave Cameron
12:47
No.
majordanby
12:47
do you have a sense of the magnitude of differences in (1) the types of data available and (2) the types of models used to analyze baseball stats in the public vs the private (i.e. within teams) spheres?
Dave Cameron
12:48
Yeah, I think I do. The primary notable gaps in data aren't related to on field, but off-field; health being the most notable. Minor league data is also a lot different with teams that have Trackmans installed in their MILB parks than it is in the public sphere.
12:49
But overall, I think the idea that the teams are doing things that so far and ahead of what the public is doing is mostly incorrect.
There's absolutely a gap there. It's just not as big as some people want you to think.
MSW
12:50
Isn't the argument against guys like Lagares at CF for the Mets that at their place on the win curve, an improvement of 2-3 WAR would make a big difference? FG has them projected to lose the division to the Nationals by 5 games, they have 2 or 3 years max with their rotation, and the Braves and Phillies will be good again in 2-3 years. This is their window, and they seem content not to seize it.
Dave Cameron
12:50
Good luck replacing Lagares with a guy +2 to +3 WAR better than him. That's Jason Heyward or something.
Mr. Mariner, Alvin Davis
12:50
Are you going to Cooperstown for Griffey's induction?
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