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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Dave Cameron
12:51
My guess is the minimum will go up but not dramatically so. The low-revenue clubs are going to push back against changes that drive up their costs more than the higher-revenue clubs, and the PA will probably push more for a significant raise in the luxury tax instead.
Ernie Camacho
12:52
Is this basically right?: the "projected standings" show your estimates of a team's "true talent," and the eventual "playoff odds" page shows the median W/L total from simulating seasons with the actual 2016 schedule, based on those team true talent estimates.
Dave Cameron
12:52
Yeah, pretty much.
Dan
12:52
You praise/criticise moves based on value exchanged. Do you undervalue the risk?
Dave Cameron
12:52
Risk is part of value.
Guest
12:52
What were your thoughts on the Giles trade from the Astros side? I noticed that didn't come in on either list...did we give up too much?
Dave Cameron
12:53
It actually did come on the best transactions list, for the Phillies side. I think the Astros overpaid a bit for a reliever.
brad
12:53
who are the 8 full time writers at FG? you, Jeff S., August, Eno, Carson, Jeff Z, Paul and Craig?
Dave Cameron
12:53
First seven are correct: Dan Farnsworth is the eighth.
12:54
Wait, sorry, didn't see you snuck Jeff Zimmerman in there. Replace him with Appelman.
Urban
12:54
I'm not a Royals fan, but your response and many from the stats community about the Royals success feels flat. Their eventual failure, as all winning teams run their course, does not undo their success or that the stats community got it wrong.
Dave Cameron
12:55
There's a huge difference between a winning team running their course and unsustainable success due to variance not continuing.
Sean
12:56
Health aside, how do you think age will affect Greinke's performance over the next 6 years? Do you think he can remain elite for a lot of it?
Dave Cameron
12:56
I'd bet on him aging fairly well, given his command and intelligence.
Rick
12:56
Any chance the Worst Transactions post will be updated to reflect that the Reds' cited international signing didn't actually happen?
Dave Cameron
12:57
The Reds haven't announced it yet; that's very different from it not happening. Sanchez/Badler don't get stuff like this wrong.
@outfieldgrass24
12:57
The projections seem to see Shelby Miller as a 1.7 - 2.3 WAR pitcher. He changed his repertoire drastically, got hit less hard and generated more ground balls. Is this a case of the projections weighting his 2014 campaign and not accounting for the changes? Is he just a casualty of how projections work or is he just a league average pitcher?
Dave Cameron
12:57
You've created a post-hoc explanation without any real evidence for why it explains Miller's results. The projections are based on data, not theories.
PR
12:58
can you get to see who is a member when chat questions are posted. Would be nice for members to have their questions answered...
Dave Cameron
12:59
We explicitly did not want to create a tier of users; once you start offering priority access to members on some aspects of the site, you've effectively created a paywall.
Kimball
12:59
Are you surprised that Steamer and PECOTA aren't higher on the Rangers? They seem to be really well positioned, resurgent in a relatively weak division.
Dave Cameron
1:00
No, I think the projections are about right; they're an average team.
PR
1:00
how many GMs do you have somewhat regular contact with
Dave Cameron
1:00
A few.
Ross
1:01
If you were looking at just fair value and not if it was likely to happen would Felix for the younger Seager be fair?
Dave Cameron
1:01
No, Seager is worth more than Felix now, by a good amount.
Am I a Muppet or a Manship?
1:01
If you could recruit any one person to be a full time fangraphs writer who has never written for the site before, who would it be?
Dave Cameron
1:02
Ben Bernanke.
Aaron
1:02
Just another Torontonian chiming in to say a Toronto FanGraphs meetup would be great
Dave Cameron
1:02
We'll see what we can do!
Am I a Muppet or a Manship?
1:02
So based on this chat (and, you know, everything fangraphs says), we are not overvaluing defense and teams don't pay as much for defense as they do for offense. So would it make sense for a team to pay substantially for defense over offense. Any recent teams that have done this and been successful?
Dave Cameron
1:02
The Royals just won the World Series with exactly that model.
critic
1:03
you say teams dont pay for defense but say ender inciarte is more valueable than an arm... where does ender inciarte's value come from?
Dave Cameron
1:03
Andrew Heaney's arm isn't that special, and Inciarte can also hit and run.
moo
1:04
So in terms of raising money, where do you and Appelman stand on this 'Indecent Proposal': you're offered $1m for fangraphs to host and present a Hank Harrelson appreciation conference all about TWTW. All of you guys would have to give lectures on TWTW theories and 'research' (i.e. relaying anecdotes where A has TWTW, but B doesn't, so A's team won the pennant...), and dedicate the site to TWTW for the period of the conference...
Dave Cameron
1:04
How long does the conference last?
And where can I sign?
jpg
1:05
Interesting. I get that Kershaw is the ultimate equalizer and they have terrific depth when you consider guys like Wood and McCarthy are probably outside the top five on the staff... But saying the Dodgers have arguably the best rotation? That pretty bullish.
Dave Cameron
1:06
Kershaw is as good as most teams #1 and #2 put together. Kazmir and Anderson are clearly above average pitchers, Ryu is very good when healthy, Maeda looks to be a solid average pitcher, and Wood is average at worst. The idea that this rotation isn't one of the best in baseball is weird.
1:07
And that's without mentioning that they have a couple of elite close-to-the-majors prospects, plus McCarthy coming back mid-season, plus Bolsinger, and Zach Lee isn't a zero.
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