Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat
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Kylo Ren
12:15
I get that the Cubs bullpen is deep and flexible, but there's not a single guy there that I would call intimidating. Does that matter at all?
Dave Cameron
12:15
Nope.
The Hamburglar
12:15
Visited Asheville for the first time since I moved to Charlotte....as good as advertised, if not better. What's the next NC town to visit for vacation, Dave?
Dave Cameron
12:16
We're going back to Duck for our family vacation next month. It's the best of the Outer Banks towns we've been to, though your mileage may vary if you don't have a wife/baby/dog. No nightlife to speak of, but in terms of peaceful relaxing beach towns, it's hard to beat.
JB
12:16
Seems like the flack Miguel Sano is getting should be aimed more at the team for asking a second-year guy (plus his size) to adjust to RF. At what point this season do Twins DH him and go Park/Mauer platoon at 1B?
Dave Cameron
12:17
I think they'd be more aggressive about moving him off RF if they were really contenders this year. They're not, so they can afford to experiment. They'll most likely pull the plug after one year and he'll be a 1B/DH in 2017.
Zonk
12:18
Is there a player with a longer transaction page than Jamey Wright? He was only traded once, but signed 20 (!) free agent contracts and was released 8 times. Is that some kind of record?
Dave Cameron
12:18
Adam Rosales has to be in that conversation. He was DFA'd about six times in a month last year.
mtsw
12:19
Vegas has the Indians at 30/1-ish to win the World Series. A rare huge divergence between projection systems (most of which seem to have them around 10%) and Vegas. Is Vegas seeing something we're not or are people just sleeping on them because of bad luck in 2015/small market/few established "stars?"
Dave Cameron
12:19
Part of the reason for the optimistic CLE playoff odds is that our forecasts are down on KC. If you think KC is a very good team (like most people do), then you have to adjust your CLE odds down since it makes a postseason berth less likely.
Zonk
12:20
I had an argument at work today...I said I think the Nationals will be very good, and the Royals won't be. He said I'm crazy. Am I crazy, or is that recency bias?
Dave Cameron
12:21
I'd take the Nationals 2016 win total over the Royals, for sure.
Moop
12:21
Who has the best stuff of Kimbrel, McGee, Robertson?
Dave Cameron
12:21
Kimbrel
Kendrick
12:22
A poll of ESPN "experts" says that the Dodgers are the most likely MLB team to disappoint this season. Is there any reasonable possibility that widely consumed opinions will be based on logical thinking and the consideration of factual evidence within the next 100 years?
Dave Cameron
12:23
The Dodgers are doomed narrative is just feeding itself at this point. The people who participated in that survey are mostly in an echo chamber where they all talk to the same people and everyone just agrees with each other because it's clearly the consensus opinion. It will be interesting to see how quickly the narrative dies once people watch the Dodgers play and realize, oh, hey, still lots of talent there.
Robbie
12:24
Has the spring changed your perception of the Diamondbacks at all? You of course have to take everything with a grain of salt, but players like Owings, Drury, and Brito are making some of us in AZ really optimistic with their play in the Cactus League.
Dave Cameron
12:24
Winning games in spring training means basically nothing.
Rhendricks
12:24
The NL Central went from arguably the best division in baseball last year to being projected as the division with the biggest blow-out lead. Do you think the Cubs really run away with the division or will we see another battle with the Cards and Pirates in the mix?
Dave Cameron
12:25
I think the Pirates are better than our forecasts think, but the Cubs are the best team in baseball, so it could end up not being that close a race simply because Chicago is so good.
Erik
12:26
Should a big-market team like the Phillies accelerate their rebuild by bringing up top prospects earlier and ignoring service time concerns? Or is that an inefficient use of resources even for a team with the money they have?
Dave Cameron
12:27
You can't accelerate your rebuild by promoting kids sooner. Playing J.P. Crawford in April or May won't do anything to make the Phillies contenders this year or next year.
Gareth
12:27
Trevor Bauer - spring control. Cody Anderson - spring velocity. Who is likelier to bring those improvements to the regular season and make the bigger impact
Dave Cameron
12:27
Not super high on either, but I'd probably take Anderson.
Jon
12:27
Most important things that happened this spring?
Dave Cameron
12:27
Way fewer elbows blowing out. Feels like we were at 20 Tommy John surgeries or something at this point last year.
Henry
12:28
Hammel goes down, who comes in? (Warren, Wood, Cahill, Richard)
Dave Cameron
12:28
Warren is pretty clearly the 6th starter, I think.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:28
How much does that Will Smith injury suck? Is there any chance he gets back up to speed, establishes some value, and is tradable by the deadline?
Dave Cameron
12:29
He doesn't have to do much to re-establish most of his market value. It's not an arm injury, so as long as he can get back on the field, teams will be interested.
Bill
12:29
The Cubs WAR on depth charts seems to have shrunk a lot - I remember they were 8 ahead of the Dodgers, and now it's more like 1. Any reasons? Relatedly, doesn't 4.3 WAR for Jason Heyward feel a little light?
Dave Cameron
12:29
The gap was bigger before we loaded ZIPS in. Steamer is higher on the Cubs than ZIPS.
Erik
12:30
Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant had very similar K% and ISO, but Bryant's BABIP was 116 points higher. Do you expect their careers to converge (in a good or bad way) or does that BABIP difference represent a real skill that will sink Pederson while Bryant has a consistently excellent career?
Dave Cameron
12:30
I wouldn't bet on a 116 point difference over their career, but Bryant is probably always going to be one of these high-BABIP guys because he just hits the ball so hard. Peterson is an extreme fly ball guy, so he'll probably be a low BABIP guy.
BleedCardsRed
12:30
I feel like the Cards are gonna suck this year. Lots of faith in older position players and rookies. No real in between ground there. What should I expect?
Dave Cameron
12:31
Way too many good players to expect them to suck. I don't have them making the postseason, but I'll be surprised if they win fewer than 80 games.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:31
Probably a crazy question: Do you think that at any point in the future, in the interest of pace of play, MLB will ever adopt a rule that states that if a batter hits X foul balls in a plate appearance, he will be called out on strikes?
Dave Cameron
12:32
No. It would change the strategy of the game too dramatically.
Dalman
12:32
What big prospect do you seeing getting the Kris Bryant award for most perfectly timed call up, immediately after the deadline to get another year before free agency?
Dave Cameron
12:32
A.J. Reed probably the most likely.
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