JotCast | Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat

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Chili Dipper

12:24

When is a Stanton deal done?

Dave Cameron

12:24

I'd guess before the winter meetings.

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:24

Was Jake Arrieta anywhere near making your Free Agent Landmines post?

Dave Cameron

12:24

He'd have been in the 6-10 range, though I still think he gets less than the crowd thinks.

Tom

12:24

Are the former Braves prospects essentially going to be able to double-up on their signing bonuses?

Dave Cameron

12:25

No; most teams don't have enough left to give them huge bonuses, and the Braves went over their signing pool to give nine of those guys bonuses over $1 million.

12:26

Teams aren't gong to be walking away from their pre-arranged deals for next July 2 just because these guys are now available. Maybe one or two teams will, but most of these guys are going to get a few hundred grand, I'd bet.

Urooj

12:27

Does MLB tell teams to consolidate their transactions to a certain point in the winter to create the most interest? Why isn't anything happening right now?

Dave Cameron

12:27

Ohtani.

That's why the MLBPA was pushing for a shorter posting window.

They don't want teams sitting around waiting for whether a player might or might not be posted, which is what is happening now.

Sterling Malory Chris Archer

12:28

Do you think Hosmer could get Encarnacion’d? Everyone thinks he’ll get 100+ but how could the bidding “war” escalate that high for not a great player?

Dave Cameron

12:28

Nah, Dombrowski won't let that happen.

I'd imagine if Hosmer would sign for under $100 million, Dombrowski would jump on that.

Nick

12:28

What team will Giancarlo Stanton play for in 2018?

Dave Cameron

12:29

The Giants seem like the safe bet right now.

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:29

With the recent discipline handed down to the Braves, obviously it dampens their long-term outlook, but how far? Like to an Oakland A's type "some talent around, and some interesting pieces on the farm, but it's going to take a lot going right to make anything happen" or to a Baltimore Orioles-like "no way in hell they're contending until a full blowup/rebuild is executed" level?

Dave Cameron

12:30

I don't think the loss of lower-level guys, many of whom have seen their stock drop since signing, really hampers their short-term future that much. It takes away some trade chips and hurts a little bit, but Braves fans were already overvaluing how impactful guys like this were, and in reality, they might end up losing one or two big leaguers out of the dozen players.

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:30

Thankful to be here in one more pre-Turkey Day FG chat. What are the odds we see another team caught and punished for similar transgressions as the Braves under Coppy? Will this episode scare everybody straight?

Dave Cameron

12:31

I would guess teams will now be a lot more careful in how they work these kinds of moves. But they won't stop entirely.

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:31

If you're a team like the Dodgers and (apparently) don't give a rip about being over the tax, assume Trout and Pujols are available like in Jeff's hypothetical article the other day. What are you willing to give up if you could get Trout, but the only way you could do it is by taking #5 in a package deal, and you're responsible for all of the financial obligation?

Dave Cameron

12:32

Not much. That would put Trout's cost at something like $210 million for three years, plus LA would have to pay a $105 million in taxes on that money. I love Trout, but I can't imagine valuing him at $100 million per year...

12:33

Favorite Turkey Day side dish?

Dave Cameron

12:33

Sweet potatoes.

Urooj

12:33

No one cares about your turkey, why even schedule a chat if you're going to make turket?

Dave Cameron

12:34

Thanks for your input, Urooj.

12:35

How would a potential signing of Ohtani affect the Yanks' chances of resetting the tax? Is there room for a Carlos Sanatana type, or will they be working off the scrapheap?

Dave Cameron

12:35

Ohtani will cost the league minimum next year, so he'd help them get under the tax.

Joe

12:35

Coppy may have been the person making the unethical decisions, but who signed off on the financial aspects? and why weren't they punished?

Dave Cameron

12:36

Because you can sign $20 million in international prospects without doing it illegally.

San Diego's international spending in the year they went over their bonus pool was like three times Atlanta's size.

But no penalties, because they weren't caught packaging players.

pepper

12:37

So...Joe Morgan says that known steroid users should not be in the Hall of Fame. Wouldn't it be much easier for the Hall of Fame to explicitly name the players it believes are cheats and state these guys are not eligible? Seems a bit more straight-forward to me

Dave Cameron

12:37

The Hall of Fame is running by incompetent boobs.

Alec Asher Wojciechowski

12:38

Does the way the MLB is handling the redistribution of Braves prospects seem odd? The most likely teams to sign the players had the braves not been able to sign them were the teams committed to going over the pool anyways, such as the Astros, As, Nats, Padres. The way it's set up, those are the teams that can offer the least to the players. If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would point out that the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs were all limited when Maitan was first eligible, but are all able to give him big bucks now...

Dave Cameron

12:38

There's a pretty decent chance that Kevin Maitan is actually terrible.

So put your conspiracy hat away.

UncleWeez

12:39

Any teams you think will prioritize Maitan over Ohtani?

Dave Cameron

12:39

Lol no.

Bobv

12:40