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FanGraphs 2020 Top 100 Prospects Chat
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Bob the Builder
12:43
Who is your favorite prospect from the bottom half of the list?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
Heriberto
Charlie Aguilar
12:44
If Luzardo ends up in the bullpen because of injury risk is that considered a bust on your analysis chart?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
no that'd be in the 40 or 50 columns depending on how good a reliever
hp
12:46
Hi Eric -- thanks as always for your thorough, insightful work. I'm wondering if you'd be willing to elaborate a little on Taylor Trammell. he seemingly had the shortest blurb in the entire list, but I'm curious for more given his precipitous drop from a top 15 prospect to where he is now on the list
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
We overestimated the power output based on what he did at that futures game, which clearly was using balls (for BP too) that were, uh, lively. Like Leody was hitting absolute tanks that day and he just doesn't have that kind of juice in real life. Same for TT. We also thought, at the time he was ranked really high, he could be a CF. No longer. Still like him, though.
Jose
12:48
Isn't Josh Lowe too high on the list? You mean he showed potential in his hit tools?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
If you're quite risk-averse then yes, he's too high. But he's had big physical tools since HS, he had a huge year at DOuble-A as a 21-year-old, there are clear underlying batted ball components that are different now, he looked god to be in the Fall League... i thought he was an easy guy to put on here
DJ Tanner
12:49
Is James Karinchak the highest FV RP you've put where he's never been a starter and always been just a RP? Dismissing all those guys who hoped to start then fell to the bullpen of course.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
One other guy: Zack Burdi
12:50
Burdi was 99-102 with a plus slider and changeup at the time. He's not been healthy.
Mike
12:50
You say it took "convincing from industry folks" to put Luis Robert as high as #7. Is it that consensus that's caused you to bump him up from a 55 at midseason to a 60 now? And is the difference because your sources like his hit tool more, or because they're just less concerned about it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
Yes to the first question. The Starling Marte comp made it easier to 60 him since Marte is a 6 with virtually the same profile
Matt Klentak
12:51
If you had to guess right now which position does Oneil Cruz play the most innings at in his career ?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
RF
Reid
12:53
Thanks for all your hard work Eric - the prospect coverage here is consistently outstanding. Is there a guy or two who you've personally been extra-excited to see play over the last few months? Someone who is "fun" to scout? I feel like Oneil Cruz and Daulton Varsho would fall into that bucket for me.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:53
I can't wait to see Austin Martin this weekend
Andrew
12:53
Great list! How do you gauge the percentages of possible outcomes for each player? Is it just a variation of a certain tool? For example for Marsh that tool would be his power, how much power he gets out of his swing determines his FV and you gauged the probability of that?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:53
it's totally inexact and more meant to show you the shape of potential outcomes rather than be scientific.
Jordan Miller
12:53
Who's the biggest riser you feel within the top 100 in regards to next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
the Picks to Click piece runs tomorrow.
Just a Guy
12:54
McKay 100% done as a hitter ?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
he probably pinch hits here and there
Mucho
12:54
Ok to ask a draft question? It looks like Nick Gonzales got dinged pretty badly on run, throw, field in the recent update. Is a second baseman with one plus tool really a top-5 draft prospect? It feels like he’s creeping dangerously close to Jemile Weeks territory...
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
Keston Hiura, anyone?
Guest
12:55
Did the Emmanul Clase for Kluber trade impact how you view FV for potential high end relievers at all?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
Great question. Yes. That deal and a bunch of Tampa's deals, as well as the way pitcher usage is changing is what brought about that chhange.
The Darkness
12:56
How does Jordan Walker compare to Kris Bryant coming out of high school?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
Hoo damn. I never saw Bryant in HS but I get where you're heading and I agree, the frame, defensive fit, the power projection. Guys like Bohm, Bryant, Nolan Jones, they have Walker's frame as high schoolers.
Brent
12:58
Brandon Marsh made a huge jump.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
Go to The Board and click his FV grade. You can see his historical FV grades. Not a big jump, he's been in the 50/55 area the whole time.
CJ
12:58
Why isnt Bobby Dalbec in the top 100?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:00
K's, there's very little precedent for a hitter striking out as much as he did in college, as much as he has in pro ball, succeeding in such a way that he belongs on here. I will say, though, that I think two of my FO contacts thought he belonged.
Mike
1:00
Without throwing a pitch, Michael Kopech actually moved up from #29 and 55 FV on last year's list to #19 and 60 FV. Has something about his recovery addressed some of your concerns? Kind of surprising given that you literally copied and pasted his write-up from last year.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
The stuff was back when he threw in the fall so scary is it/isn't it back after surgery question was answered
Met tucker is a snake
1:01
How much of a difference is there between Rutschman and Bart?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
It's not huge but I'll definitely take the switch hitter
Dave
1:02
Who would you say is this year's Brujan - a guy you love more than the industry?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:02
I guess Cruz
Jonny
1:02
Is someone like Francisco Alvarez someone to keep a close eye on for next year's list?  Too "new" to be in the top 100 or are you just not seeing enough potential?
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