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Front Office Chat: 12/16/22
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Anthony Franco
3:42
Not one I've seen. Like I wrote this week, they're just way out an island with their Esteury Ruiz evaluation
3:43
They're basically valuing Ruiz as a top 50 prospect. If they're right and he's an immediate above-average center fielder, the Murphy trade turns out fine. It's a hell of a gamble though
Joshua
3:43
Does Kyle Finnegan to the Twins for Woods Richardson and a lower level prospect make sense at all?
Anthony Franco
3:45
I don't have a great answer for why, but this just feels like too much for Finnegan. Your question last week put him on my radar as a sneakily valuable trade chip but I still think SWR is probably loftier than Minnesota would give up
Finance
3:45
I just listened to Ben Clemens on the latest Effectively Wildcat podcast and he was making a case that the extra long contracts en vogue this year are due as much to low interest rates and the time-value of $$ as about luxury tax circumvention. I had never heard that before as a factor -- are you picking up any of that?  And would you expect Manfred to set some limits on the length of these contracts at some point?
Anthony Franco
3:47
Clemens has a financial background that I don't, so he's more qualified to speak on that. Time value of money has always been a consideration though, that's not unique to this offseason. How present higher inflation rates tie into that, I don't really know, although that also seems like something agents and players would take into account in negotiations themselves
Whereas whether the team pays a higher tax bill is pretty much inconsequential to the player
Drew
3:47
If you took an up-to-the-luxury-tax budget and split it evenly among all 26 roster spots ($8.85mm/per), do you think you could build an above .500 team?
Anthony Franco
3:48
No I think we'd be terrible
The rotation is like Drew Smyly and Jordan Lyles types. The lineup is made up of Adam Fraziers
3:49
Would we be better than the 2023 Nationals? Maybe, but it wouldn't be anywhere near the playoffs
DeBacks
3:49
Alejandro Kirk + Lourdes Gurriel for Dalton Varsho and Jake McCarthy?
Anthony Franco
3:50
I don't really see Arizona moving two of their outfielders. Gurriel gets them an immediate replacement but he's only around for one season. Doesn't feel like enough from Arizona's perspective, awesome as Kirk is
wvpirate
3:50
Which player who has signed a long term deal will end up being a bad deal?
Anthony Franco
3:51
$280MM for Bogaerts is well beyond where I'd have wanted to go
I know this isn't really the question you're asking, but I also cannot wrap my head around what the Phillies see in Taijuan Walker to guarantee him $72MM. Is he better than Ross Stripling? I'm not convinced
Arise, Sir Loin of Beef
3:51
The Mets have spent a ton. Is their plan sensible or are they in drunken sailor mode?
Anthony Franco
3:52
It's kind of both but if the drunken sailor has $15 billion or whatever, does it matter?
Jed Hoyer's Friend
3:52
What can I, er Jed, get for Patrick Wisdom?
Anthony Franco
3:53
Not a whole lot. Probably a mid-level, 40 FV type of prospect
Cdub53
3:53
Any way the Rangers could get Bryan Reynolds without trading Jack Leiter?
Anthony Franco
3:53
Sure. If you put Jung, Rocker or Evan Carter as a starting point, I'm sure you could build something
Stormy
3:54
Would Peraza, Cabrera plus a15-20 prospect and a high upside flyer be enough for Vasharo?
Anthony Franco
3:55
I think it's a little light but in the ballpark. If you put in Clarke Schmidt or something, I imagine it'd be tempting
Tennjay
3:55
Should the Jays double down on bringing in an accomplished pitcher with either Kluber or Cueto, or, just concentrate on bringing in an additional impact bat for the OF?
Anthony Franco
3:56
Yeah I'd feel better about the roster with one more stable, back-end starter
Kikuchi should just be a reliever IMO, and Mitch White's a depth guy
Red Sox
3:56
The Red Sox have to extend Devers, right?
Guest
3:56
Should the Mets trade for Devers (with an extension,  as with Johan)? If so, what would be an offer fair to both teams?
Anthony Franco
3:57
They can't trade him this offseason, and there's definitely a ton of pressure to get a long-term deal done at this point. I do expect they'll find a middle ground in Spring Training, front office has to be motivated not to let this happen again
Nostradamus
3:58
I know there are still a ton of free agents to be signed and trades to be made, but at this point in the offseason, which team has increased their 2023 post-season chances the most?  Which team has lost the most ground in their division/league, based on their own moves or lack thereof and those of their competition?
Anthony Franco
3:59
Interesting question. I like Texas for the first question. They're a little shy of playoff team for me, at least pending their left field addition, but they've gone from "zero chance" to "Wild Card contender with some health luck" by overhauling the rotation
4:00
Teams that have lost ground: Boston, Baltimore, Minnesota, maybe Seattle with the Rangers and Angels getting better
I also kind of liked Arizona as a dark-horse contender at the start of the offseason, but they're clearly going to start next year as the fourth-best team in their own division at this point
RIck Hahn's Agent
4:00
How hot is Rick's seat?
Anthony Franco
4:01
If the White Sox miss the playoffs again, feels like he's in trouble
wvpirate
4:01
The Pirates have the worst owner in baseball. How long will the Commissioner put up with it? Will we ever see the books to see where the money is going? Shouldn't a certain amount go to the players salaries?
Anthony Franco
4:02
Yeah the league just isn't going to push this. Manfred's job is contingent on maintaining ownership support. It's the union that's concerned about this but no, I don't think they'll ever be powerful enough to force teams to open the books
4:03
Best you can probably hope for is something that threatens revenue sharing payments for teams that don't reinvest it into player payroll, but it's a tough thing to prove since investing in scouting and player development is "improving the team"
Eddie
4:03
Teams with the best bullpens seem to go the farthest in the post season. In this new era of starting pitchers only going 4-5 innings and getting quick hooks in the playoffs, you would think more urgency would go into locking down elite relievers like Andrew Chafin and Adam Ottavino...yet there they still sit on the waiver wire.  Why do you think these guys haven't been swooped up by now?
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