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Philly A's
3:25
Do the A's have to meet the payroll threshold on player salaries or is it calculated on the Luxury Tax Payroll?  Fangraphs has salary at $65m and Luxury Tax at $89m.
Anthony Franco
3:25
Tax number is the relevant one for revenue sharing
Will
3:26
Could you guys see a trade along the lines of Mayo/Kjerstad for Cease/Cronenworth/Suarez happening? Or something like Casas/Rafaela for the same package from the Padres? It would seem to fit well for all parties to me. Thoughts?
Anthony Franco
3:28
I think that's more than SD would get for those guys. Cronenworth's contract makes him a slightly negative value asset for me (even though I like the player). Suarez is great but he's probably opting out after next season, so you're basically treating him as a rental with some contractual downside if he gets injured
3:30
Cease is fantastic but also a pure rental who's not signing an extension. I think one headliner like Casas or Mayo is viable if you're also putting Suarez in the deal, but I wouldn't expect multiple top young position player talents (mileage may vary on whether Rafaela fits that bill) because of the limited control window
Probably not signing an extension, I should say*
Joe Blow
3:31
The Cubs now seemingly have enough money to go sign a 3B. Do they just gamble that Shaw and Triantos can get the job done? Or do they go after a stop gap until next year? Seems like Hoyer is gambling a lot because he has one year left doesn't it?
Anthony Franco
3:31
I think they're sincere in believing that Shaw is just going to run with it
3:33
Destroyed minor league pitching at every stop, very few questions from scouts about the bat. Can't expect him to be Alex Bregman good as a rookie, but it's fair to say he could be better than everyone else available at 3B next season
Philly Special
3:33
Does the Max Kepler signing make any sense on it's own?  Are the Phillies up to something bigger before spring training?
Anthony Franco
3:34
Would've liked it more if they added a RH bat to platoon with Marsh, but there wasn't really a righty equivalent to Kepler out there. They didn't want to make a significant multi-year commitment to Teoscar or Profar, and Kepler's got a better shot to be an everyday left fielder than someone like Randal Grichuk or tendering Austin Hays an arb contract
3:35
Gives them an option to play RF if they can find a way to offload Castellanos. If they can't, Kepler plays LF and Marsh and Rojas can platoon in center
Uke
3:35
Can players be traded while they are on the IL?  I thought the answer used to be no, but I have seen several where guys out for season are traded.  Is that a special exception or have they changed the rules?  Thanks.
Anthony Franco
3:36
I'm not sure about the history of the rule, but they can definitely be traded if they're on the IL now. Alex Cobb's the most recent example I can think of, but it happens fairly frequently
Thank you for the chat!
3:36
Is it in the owner's best interest to raise the minimum salary? If players minimum was say, $1-2MM, wouldn't it essentially squeeze midlevel free agency downwards? In essence, outside of top of the range free agents, most players would end up closer to the lower end salary (more cost efficient replacement of production ). And for the majority of players a higher floor earlier in their careers may be more appealing against the upside chance of a free agency.
Anthony Franco
3:37
I see what you're saying but I think a significant bump in the league minimum (closer to $2M more so than one) would go the other way and start to bring the bottom of free agency back up
3:38
The market has been pretty cold to that kind of free agent, largely because teams feel they can get like 70% of the production they'd expect from a $5-10MM free agent out of someone in the system whom they'd pay $780K
3:40
By raising the cost of the internal replacement, I think you'd see more teams willing to spend for 1.5 WAR-type free agents (or players with escalating arb salaries) because you're shrinking the gap in cost
Go Guardians!!!!
3:41
Do you think there is any chance that the Guardians could reach out to JD Martinez about signing on so they could get some power in to that lineup?
Anthony Franco
3:42
Blocks the path to ABs for Mazardo again. He's got a couple options, so you could make it work, but at some point you've gotta see if he can hit major league pitching
Coop
3:42
Stay with me on this, Anthony, as I realize it's not likely to happen. But if the Braves would move Riley, there would be a market for his services, even coming off of a down year, correct? I mean, he's a lock for 30 homers every year and is still young. And an AAV of 21MM is not bad at all. What do you think?
Anthony Franco
3:43
I don't think Atlanta would do it but I agree that there's a lot of surplus value if they put him out there
3:45
They've got his ages 28-35 seasons at $22MM annually, with a club option for a ninth year. If he were a free agent right now, he'd beat $176MM by a lot. Think he'd be in the 250-300 range even coming off the relative down year
Jays fan
3:45
Could you see a Robinson Cano-ish trade this offseason, where a team with cap worries packages an overpriced veteran talent with a cheaper younger one?  And if so, who would be the most motivated?
Anthony Franco
3:47
I'd guess San Diego would be most likely to do this. Can't imagine anyone's taking Bogaerts, and they're not going to move Tatis, but maybe Darvish?
3:48
I doubt it happens at all but the Padres do bold stuff and they probably have the best combination of no payroll space, desire to win, and obvious holes to fill
Mike
3:49
I want to know what the Yankees will do with the open spot in the IF. Any chance of a trade for someone like Ryan McMahon?
Anthony Franco
3:50
Colorado didn't want to entertain offers on McMahon at the deadline when he was playing well enough to get them a significant return. Can't see why they'd trade him coming off a dismal second half that tanked a lot of that value
Mike Elias
3:50
How is it some teams and signings seem to have every detail leaked in the press, but other teams there's no clue. For ex the Orioles recent moves (Burnes, Sugano, trade deadline) all seemed to come out of nowhere. Do some teams manage to prioritize discretion more? Is it a market size thing?
Anthony Franco
3:52
For free agent signings, it's mostly dependent on how forthcoming the agent wants to be
3:53
It's easier for teams to keep a lid on trade rumors/acquisitions though. That's a lot more front office dependent. The Braves basically refuse to let anything out about what they're working on until it's done, for instance
3:55
Wouldn't say that market size is a direct factor but it also matters how plugged in a team's beat reporters are to what the club is doing. The bigger market teams usually have larger corresponding media contingents
3:56
It's not a direct 1-to-1 though. Marc Topkin is basically the only Rays reporter out there and he's on top of pretty much everything they're doing. Arizona and Seattle don't have huge beats but the reporters they have are really good too
Spaghetti Marinera
3:56
In thinking about Rickey Henderson, I thought about the nonconformists in baseball when I first fell in love with the sport as a kid (late ‘70s and early ‘89s). You had the outright weirdos (Mark Fidrych, Bill Lee, Eric Show), the guys who (mostly) refused to talk to sportswriters (Anos Otis, Eddie Murray, George Hendrick, Steve Carlton), and the players with funky batting stances (Brian Downing, Rod Carew, Henderson), not to mention all the offbeat knuckleballers. So I wonder: who are today’s great nonconformists in baseball? Who’s just plain fun to follow?
Anthony Franco
3:58
Don't think there are as many characters as there were in the 70s. Andrew Chafin fits that vibe though
4:00
The playing styles are generally more homogenous too. Luis Arraez is basically one of a kind with his pure hitting ability
I'll defer to you
4:00
I'm curious about how deferred deals will impact future contention. Does Shoehei's deal for instance mean the Dodgers will have ~70 million on their active payroll in 2034 which is all taxable? Won't that severely hinder Dodgers' ability to add new players during the next decade since they'll reach the luxury tax with essentially 3/4 of the active salary that other teams have?
Anthony Franco
4:01
It's taxed now, just based on the net present value of the contract
4:02
Deferrals dropped the NPV to roughly $460MM in MLB's estimation. So they're paying an approximate $46MM luxury hit on the Ohtani deal for the next 10 years. They won't be taxed on it during the time of the deferrals, even though that's when essentially all of the salary will actually be paid
4:04
Taking over news coverage from Steve but there's nothing pressing so I'll stick around for another 15 unless something breaks in the interim
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