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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –11/19/24
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Joe
12:42
How much stock, if any, do you put in the concept of "fame" being important for election?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
It's a consideration but not an overwhelming one. I can look at Steve Garvey, note his outsized fame, and then his numbers, and it doesn't change my opinion that he shouldn't be elected. I can look at Tommy John, consider the weight of him being a pioneer as a biomedical guinea pig, and have that cause me to waver a bit longer as to which way I'm going.
12:45
Speaking of outsized fame, here's my Dave Parker profile https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-classic-baseball-era-committee-candid...
Gonna take a couple minutes to share that on the social platforms...
Phil
12:49
Thinking about Dick Allen and others makes me wonder: for you as a voter, how much would a player's health affect your vote (I understand that it comes up much more frequently with the committees than with BBWAA, though stuff can certainly happen to folks in their 50s)? If you were on the fence about somebody but you thought they'd probably get in eventually anyway, would the question of their ability to experience it affect your vote, or is it just the merits, period?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
In the wake of Luis Tiant's death and my thoughts about Tommy John, I'm asking myself that question a lot these days. I don't know the answer. I tend to stick pretty closely to performance while trying to put it into an historical and social context, and with all that it's a clear edge for Tiant, but for as lukewarm as I have been about John for 20+ years as a candidate, the prospect that this could be the last ballot of his lifetime weighs on me a bit.
Seeking Solutions
12:54
I've become increasingly convinced that the "extras" that a player brings, (Tommy John, Curt Flood, etc) should be enough to tip the scales in their favor. Maybe it's because I'm a Pirate fan and Roberto Clemente was the ultimate example of this, getting in early because of his heroic and untimely end. Has your thinking changed on this issue over the years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
I'm definitely more in favor of Flood's induction than I've been in the past, and in retrospect feel a tinge of regret that I didn't beat the drum harder for his inclusion on this ballot. As noted in the previous answer, I'm thinking about it re: John but I'm not there yet
JT
12:55
ROTY thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
I probably would have tabbed Merrill over Skenes — he hadn't played above Double-A, hadn't played center before the spring, and turned out to be a key driver of a playoff team while taking to the position incredibly well. No problem with Skenes winning, though. He's something special, too.
I was more sold on Gil over Cowser but didn't have a strong opinion either way
Adam B.
12:57
What's the optimal answer for where the Rays play their home games before a new stadium is built?  What do you expect will actually happen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
I don't think there's an optimal answer, but Steinbrenner Field in Tampa always seemed like the most obvious solution and i expect it could be a multiyear one. It's at least attainable for local fans, while moving them hundreds of miles away would not be.
1:00
What's wild, or perhaps gut-wrenching, is that this whole mess is jeopardizing the stadium deal that they've been trying to get since, like, the late Cretaceous period https://www.tampabay.com/sports/2024/11/16/rays-stadium-deal-bonds-vot...
Jeremy
1:00
It's always seemed a little weird to me that the vote shares of so many Hall of Famers, and also some guys who don't make it, change so much over time. Often starting low and increasing substantially. I mean, analytics has been around for a long time now. Nobody's going to learn anything about (say) Chase Utley over the next 9 years that they don't already know. So why haven't most of the voters already decided one way or the other on Utley (and many other candidates)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Your viewpoint fails to account for the space limitation on a ballot. As candidacies age or gain support, they gain urgency, and voters are more likely to take a closer look and reconsider their previous stances.
1:06
What's more, there will be turnover in the electorate that helps to drive the increasing share of voters. There are FanGraphs readers becoming voters, after all.

And i highly disagree that "nobody is going to learn anything" about a candidate. We've had an explosion of data within baseball in the past two decades, and not every voter is as up to speed on the cutting edge of analysis. But even old dogs do learn new tricks, and they come around — I wouldn't have made my mark in this racket if that weren't the case.
Guest
1:06
Hi Jay, this is my first chat, and I want to let you know I've enjoyed your HOF analysis since your days at SI.  Thank you for doing what you do.  With that said, I have to say that 1. Billy Wagner is overdue.  He was just flat out dominant, and when he entered the game, it was obvious the odds were slim that he wouldn't slam the door.  2. CC may look like a first-ballot HOFer, but 3000ks + the goodwill he's done for the sport + overcoming his demons... idk, it just looks like it should be Wagner, Ichiro, and Sabathia this year.  What are your high-level thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
Thanks for the kind words. You'll find my high-level thoughts, which somewhat parallel your own, in yesterday's piece linked atop this article
CleGuy
1:08
If you could have created the Classic Baseball Ballot yourself, who would you have included?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
Flood and Doc Adams are the two most glaring omissions. I could probably come up with a slate of 8 ideal candidates, but that might paralyze even me when it comes to choosing which three to vote for. As Dan and I modeled a couple years ago, you actually do need some ballast in order to avoid the likelihood of a shutout
Philly
1:09
Should the Rule 5 Draft also be a lottery? Does removing more benefits of tanking ultimately benefit the MLB
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
Meh, the impact of the R5 draft order is low enough that I don't think it needs to be overcomplicated.
1:13
For those wondering what's for lunch, there's nothing like the excitement of a Reuben arriving 30 minutes late and below room temperature. GDI
Straw
1:14
What's more likely?  That Wright gains ground or that he falls off the ballot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
Given that he received just 6.2% last year, the latter is far more likely
Matt Kory
1:14
Hey Jay! Hope all is well with you. What would you say the chances are of Dustin Pedroia getting into the Hall at some point (i.e. including various committees)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
Low. So far we have exactly one expansion era (post-1960) player with fewer than 2000 hits who's been elected by either the writers or committee and has made it, and that's Tony Oliva. There's an emerging competition for the second spot between Dick Allen, Andruw Jones, Chase Utley, Buster Posey, and so on, but falling short still represents a significant obstacle to election, and for a guy who's further off the WAR and JAWS benchmarks than those above (if they are), it only gets more difficult
Disgruntled
1:19
I think it's a big oversight by the union that neither the Padres nor the Orioles got a PPI pick for their second place ROY finish. Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:19
Now that we have examples, it might become a bargaining point in the next CBA negotiations but I doubt it's a hill anyone will die on
Phil
1:20
In the past, the assumption has been that the obstacle to unanimity has been grumpy old-schoolers. Regarding Ichiro, are you concerned about grumpy new-schoolers playing that role? I got so tired of a certain kind of saber type complaining that he didn't walk enough and ignoring what a joy he was to watch, and I'm a little worried.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
Eh, I am braced for a Griffey/Jeter near-miss already and would recommend hucking rotten eggs at any holdout regardless of their age
Philly
1:22
lol at latest comment about Betts moving to infield. Dodgers fans think everything is about them
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
Well, when you've nabbed Ohtani and Yamamoto, won a World Series, and then kicked the tires on Sasaki and Soto without ownership crying publicly about payroll, I think they can be forgiven.
Phil
1:23
Strasburg hype was completely insane, from well before his debut to well after. People forget.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
Exactly.
Tyler
1:24
Hi Jay, I'm currently working on a project just for fun by trying to put together all-time rosters for each franchise. I apologize if this isn't the right forum to ask this. But for part of my analysis I thought it would be a good idea to do using a similar formula to JAWS, only adjusting the number of years it's divided by. With that being said I have 2 questions: 1) If I wanted to utilize this in a blog or podcast do you approve? and, 2) What is the number of years that you think would be best to compare player performance for one franchise? Thanks for you time!
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
Find me on a social media platform and ask this, we can have a discussion away from the chat.
Tim
1:24
What would it take for the MLB to implement a salary floor?
Would it have to come with a soft NBA-style cap for the owners to agree to it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
For the union to agree to any kind of floor/cap system would almost certainly require lowering the arbitration and free agency thresholds so that younger players get paid earlier, and more in line with their current production. Any proposal that doesn't account for that probably isn't worth reading a second sentence about.
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