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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 5/28/21
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Matt G
2:48
Would you say any AL East team in particular should be a proactive seller ahead of and during the deadline if it continues to be this tight amongst the 4 contenders?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Not unless they want their GM and/or club president burned in effigy
If you stumble into contention, compete, don't trade players away. Unless you're blown away by a ridiculous offer. Jeff Mathis for Xander Bogaerts? Sure, make that deal
Guest
2:50
The Giants signed Andrew Bailey as their new pitching coach this year.  How much of the credit for the resurgence of the SF rotation does he deserve?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Some credit, probably. But he's not the only one on that coaching staff that's drawn praise. Brian Bannister their Director of Pitching, is a very smart dude who's been well regarded in the game for awhile and has been with the team even longer.
Guest
2:54
Yasmany Grandal has a higher walk rate than 2001 Barry Bonds.  In fact, he has the highest non-Bonds walk rate of *anyone* since at least 1920.  Did he consciously alter his approach at the plate this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
For the life of me i don't know what's going on there. Sometimes when a player's walk rate spikes, it's because he's concealing an injury or the reality that his bat is slowing down. Devan Fink took a look a couple weeks ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yasmani-grandal-has-one-of-the-wonkiest-sl.... it does sound like at least some of this is an altered approach. To wit:

“I’m done swinging at pitches that they want me to swing at. If you make a mistake, I want to crush you. If you don’t, then I’m going to walk,” Grandal said during a Sunday Zoom. “You are hunting for a certain zone or a certain pitch.

https://www.mlb.com/news/yasmani-grandal-s-high-walk-rate-in-2021
Szakyl
2:58
Which pre-Mineyball manager do you think would most quickly embrace modern analytics if he time-traveled to the present and was immediately given a team to manage?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I bet Leo Durocher would have been even more of a pain in the ass than he already was.
Super Max
2:59
Chris Bassitt has added a swing-and-miss slider and has matured as a pitcher. It seems like he is in the conversation for top-5 pitcher in the AL right now (3rd in xERA). Can he keep that up?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
Color me skeptical but then again, besides Cole and Bieber, it's a mixed bag in terms of track records when you look at the leaderboards for ERA, FIP, and xERA, but he's still right there high in the rankings if you include his 2020 line as well. He's getting more groundballs, throwing with higher velo, and missing more bats. So... maybe?
Vermonty
3:02
How much longer can the Yankees get away with terrible production in CF and LF? It's been brutal
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
With Aaron Hicks out for the year, they're in a real bind because Gardner and Frazier have been brutal, and they traded Tauchman. I have more hope for Frazer turning things around but I don't see how the team's outfield situation improves without a trade.
Von Hayes
3:05
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
The boys are truly back in town
Chaim Mattis Keller
3:06
Why do you think Hall of Fame voters, who seem very keen on punishing cheaters (proven or perceived) turn a blind eye (and even a wink) when it comes to pitchers doctoring the ball (e.g., Gaylord Perry)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
Different generations of voters, different types of rules being bent
3:08
Doctoring the ball has never been regarded as so far over the line that a player was treated as a pariah if he was found out. I mean, Perry wasn't even ejected for doctoring a baseball until he was like 43 years old and had passed 300 wins
3:09
Now, some HOF voters may have withheld their support for him, especially in the first year. He debuted with 68% and it took 3 years to get above 75%
Alby
3:09
Does the NL West, with three good teams feasting on two bad ones, illustrate a problem with the current unbalanced schedule?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Eh, I'd much rather the Dodgers, Padres and Giants play 19 games against each other plus the two softies than get reduced to 8-10 games against each other for the sake of uniform schedules in non-uniform divisions. The balanced schedules of the old American League sucked ass IMO.
Dave
3:11
If the Nationals are out of it by July and Scherzer agrees to waive his 10-5 rights, can they get something legitimately good for him if they pay enough of his salary to keep the acquiring team below the luxury tax?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:11
Sure
GBS42
3:11
Jay, one thing I've always questioned about the idea of a player needing to exceed the average JAWS score at a position to be HOF worthy is that using this method would inherently continue to increase those averages, making it more and more difficult over time for players to exceed the standard. I doubt anyone, yourself included, would say JAWS is the end-all, be-all of HOF worthiness, but I wanted to see what you think about this. Thanks.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
Except in practice it never works that way where the standard only rises, because JAWS isn't the only principle by which voters choose whom to recognize, and indeed, only some fraction of the voting body even uses it. It's a tool that's useful as a first-cut method to manage a difficult task, and it helps to organize one's thinking about who belongs. But there's a fair bit of stuff not accounted for in WAR that's fair game for HOF discussions, postseason performance being one of those things, and so with the possible exception of starting pitchers, I'm not particularly worried that the standards are going to become out of reach for contemporary players
Mark
3:15
What does the future of fielding metrics look like? What would a great system look like?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Incorporating Statcast measures into defensive metrics is the next level, and we're not far off from that happening
Guest
3:17
As much as it sucks for the Mets short-term plans, isn't the Syndergaard setback not especially surprising for a guy recovering from TJ, and not necessarily a huge red-flag for the prospect of his recovery?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
I'm of two minds on the Syndergaard situation
For the most part, I'm not surprised at setbacks along the road to recovery, but with the Mets already taking his rehab so slowly, I'm maybe a bit more concerned than usual, especially in such a hard thrower
3:21
The second issue is whether the Mets discovered something new in checking him out. 6 weeks seems to be a long setback, so i don't know if we have all the information here
and I don't mean to pick on the Mets in this instance. I saw one mention some place that he might have a bone spur (can't recall where) and I know he's had that in his history.
ROGELIO
3:22
Dale Murphy & Devon White are within one career WAR of one another. Which career would you rather have your favorite team's number one prospect have? Murphy (higher peak, driven by power) or White (value more evenly distributed throughout career, driven by speed/defense)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
Murphy. Higher peak carries the day for me. You can only get so much out of a single roster spot; if that guy is giving you 7-8 wins in his best seasons, it beats getting 4 wins more often.
Mark
3:23
What is your favorite solution to the service time issue that is keeping players like Wander Franco and Adley Rutschman in the minor leagues?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
"The easiest solution, at least on the surface, is one that starts a player’s clock the second he signs. Various time-frames have been thrown out, including eight years for college picks, 10 for high school draftees, and 12 for international signees. JUCO ball and the varying ages of foreign-born amateur players muddles things a bit, leading some to simply suggest an age, which would make for a simpler rule that allows players to become free agents before the season in which they turn 29, or 28, or 30. Under such a structure, if the player is good enough, they play. As a result, they give even more in terms of years and production to the team that signed and developed them. The exact years or ages are up to the MLBPA and the commissioner’s office to sort out, and the complications don’t end there; such an agreement could force all professional players into the union, which would be great for them but also makes the proposal a likely non-starter for Manfred and his associates."
Jay T
3:24
Yordan Alvarez historically has had a BB rate of over 10%.  He's sitting at a 3% BB rate this year.  Any concerns? why is he walking so little?  Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
Whoa. I hadn't seen that until now. It probably deserves a closer look to see what he's swinging at but his strikeout rate isn't suddenly spiking, and his swinging strike rate is actually down relative to 2019 (2020 is a writeoff). I'd worry about it if Alvarez were unproductive but it's tough to get too worked up when he's carrying a 143 wRC+
Joe
3:27
Is Austin Riley for real?  I can only imagine with Ozuna out and Riley in the 4 hole now, it'll help his production and rbi chances.
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