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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/2/18
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Ross
9:28
Jeff, I can’t tell you exhausting it is to see basically everyone in the media and many fans as well respond to every move the Rays make with “The Rays are a disgrace,” “The Rays are tanking,” “The Rays should tank,” “Baseball doesn’t belong in Florida,” so I can’t tell you how much I appreciate the way you seem to be the only person who sees things for the way they are and doesn’t just run with these lazy narratives that most of these people clearly barely put any thought or effort into
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
Going to seem like I'm patting my own back by including this in the chat, but I do have a point to make!
9:29
The Rays are interesting. A little like the Pirates. There's the way the Rays *do* operate, and there's the way the Rays would *ideally* operate. Most people prefer to see baseball as binary: you're either trying to win, or you're not. And if you're trying to win, you should invest your resources. The Rays don't invest resources the same way. Maybe they can't, or maybe they just don't. I don't have access to their books
9:31
Under ideal circumstances, the Rays would be able to flex their financial might more than they do. They wouldn't have to treat roster-building so much like a puzzle. Because of how they *actually* behave, it can be hard to understand without taking the time. The Rays do want to win, surely. But few other teams would combine that goal with shedding Jake Odorizzi because of his salary
9:32
The Rays front office and the Rays ownership are not the same thing. Nothing wrong with being frustrated by ownership. The front office deserves credit for working well despite impossible constraints
vince clortho
9:32
Milwaukee's breaking my heart. As the only team outside the big 7 who decided they would deploy resources to field a competitive ballclub, I hoped they would be excellent baseballers. However, the only thing they seem to be brewing... are half measures. Find them a pitcher for me.
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
Firstly, as crazy as it sounds, the "offseason" isn't over yet. Still moves to be made
9:34
Secondly, I think of the Brewers' pitching staff as a big experiment. I think, organizationally, they're around the forefront of trying to improve the pitchers they already have. I don't know if it's going to work, but I think the Brewers are banking big on development
I don't doubt that the Brewers would take Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn if the prices fell. The prices haven't fallen
Babe Lincoln
9:35
What could/should the Mets have done differently this winter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
They probably could've done better than Adrian Gonzalez for a small price. But I didn't hate the Mets' offseason. The whole year ahead is more or less going to come down to Syndergaard and Conforto, and I don't know what you do about them in the winter
Tim
9:38
The Cleveland situation with them signing Napoli just so he can play in some spring games and audition for other teams is a little weird, isn’t it? If they like him so much and think he still belongs on an MLB roster, why don’t they just keep him? Francona says they don’t have room for him, but do they not have an obvious spot for him as Alonso’s platoon partner at first?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
This happens fairly often. The Yankees just signed Adam Lind, saying to the media he's just an insurance policy. In the Indians' case, it's going to come down to the size of their bench. If they carry an eight-man bullpen, including Ryan Merritt, then Napoli has nowhere to go, because he's not in any way versatile
Ved
9:41
Let's say you run a contending team or a team on the cusp of contention and have the opportunity to trade for 1-year of a Cy-Young level pitcher in his late 20s, like a Sale or a Strasburg. You also have an opportunity to re-sign him at the end of the season but it isn't guaranteed. What type of prospect haul is reasonable to acquire this pitcher?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
The situations aren't identical since they happened in July, but we could consider the Royals trading for Johnny Cueto, or the Angels trading for Zack Greinke
9:42
On the one hand, prices for aces go up midseason, but on the other hand, if you trade for the ace *before* the season, then you're lined up to receive some compensation if he leaves
9:43
I think you'd be looking at three prospects. At least two of them are close to ready. None of them are elite
9:45
Best prospect probably in the 25-75 range
Not a Phillies Fan
9:46
Hi Jeff, love your chats and articles. Thank you for all that you do. My question is about George Springer. After and increase in contact and an amazing World Series, do you see him taking another step forward this year? Does he have a chance to go .300-40?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
I don't think 40 home runs would be at all out of the question. He just got to 34 despite playing in only 140 games
9:47
But it's gotten so, so difficult to bat .300. Springer finished at .283. He had a higher strikeout rate than most of the players who did bat .300 or better. Springer could BABIP his way into a high average, sure, but if you're looking for something "sustainable," I don't think he gets there
Babe Lincoln
9:48
Any team miss[ing] a real opportunity to buy this winter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Phillies should add more. A's should also add more, but it's possible no one wants to play with them
Sometimes the A's have a really hard time giving out their money
Fireface
9:50
Probably few modern players are affected by infield shifting as much as Anthony Rizzo. In 2017, he compiled a .163 average and -20 wRC+ on 196 ground balls. Should Rizzo bunt more as the shift allows to boost his OBP, or is the corresponding loss in SLG not worth the offset?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
Since 2015, 315 players have hit at least 200 ground balls
Rizzo has a wRC+ on those grounders of 5, which ranks him 40th-worst. He's right there with, say, Brandon Belt
9:52
It gets worse! Justin Smoak, on those same grounders, has a wRC+ of -35
Brian McCann, -18. Chris Davis, -17
So, Rizzo isn't getting screwed quite like some others
9:53
That being said, yes, of course, being a lefty hurts him when he puts a ball on the ground. Thankfully he doesn't do that very much, and he remains an excellent hitter overall. If he wants to bunt a few more times, he should go nuts, but he probably just doesn't feel very comfortable about it
Carson Cistulli Sabathia
9:53
Jeff! Are you ready for NHL hockey in Seattle? And given Ottawa’s rebuild, if Seattle does get a team will you switch allegiances to them?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Cannot switch allegiances
How does a fan switch allegiances?
Even if you told yourself you wanted to, I don't think you could actually convince your brain
9:54
You root for the same stupid clothes as always. And you hope every year that the people wearing those clothes aren't embarrassing
North Side Nihilist
9:54
Hey Jeff, great piece on the decline of the windup. Any plans for FG to track pitches from stretch/windup?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Can't imagine we're going to do anything like that, but this sounds like a crowdsourcing project, doesn't it?
Charles Finley
9:55
If Greg Bird hit like Adam Lind 2017, but over a full season (650 PA), would we consider that just about a best-case scenario for Greg Bird?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
So, a 122 wRC+, but without the platooning
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